Our Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest bet builder tips, predictions and best bets compare every record against the price rather than quoting it alone.
Alexis Mac Allister has cleared two tackles in five of his last six and is 8/15. Alexander Isak is Evens to score with one goal in six. Three of our four legs are prop bets.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
N. Williams 3+ Tackles
8/13bet365Three, 2, 3, 3, 2 and 4 in his last six – three or more in four of them, at 2.67 per 90 across 1,584 minutes.
Four of six is 67% against an implied 62% at the price, so the record is ahead of the market. His 47 tackles is the highest total in either squad.
Forest are 15.6% to win on the market and set up in a 3-4-2-1, so Williams spends the afternoon as a defending wing-back. That is the shape this leg wants.
Igor Jesus 2+ Shots on Target
7/2bet365One, 1, 0, 3, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 1.24 per 90 across 1,378 minutes. Two or more in two of six.
Thirty-three per cent against an implied 22% at 7/2 – the widest gap between record and price on this page.
The caution is Liam Delap, who has just signed and may take minutes. Igor Jesus is the named starter but the price was set before that arrival.
R. Gravenberch 2+ Fouls Drawn
11/10bet365Three, 1, 2, 0, 2 and 0 in his last six – two or more in three of them, at 1.42 per 90 across 1,583 minutes.
Fifty per cent against an implied 48%, so this is a level bet rather than a value one. It is here because Forest commit 11.55 fouls a game and Gravenberch carries the ball through the middle.
Murillo to be Carded
4/1bet365Three yellows in 984 minutes at 0.27 per 90.
Roughly 24% per ninety against an implied 20% at the price. He is in the back three against Isak and Gakpo, and Forest have no referee appointed to price against.
Over 9.5 Corners
8/11bet365Liverpool took 6.45 corners a game and Forest 4.80, for 11.25 between them. Liverpool also register 34.30 touches in the box to Forest’s 22.45 and enter the final third 58.60 times a match.
The line has already moved. It opened at 1.975 and is now 1.727, so money has come for corners on this fixture since the market went up.
Both Teams to Score
3/4bet365Thirteen of Liverpool’s last twenty produced goals at both ends and eleven of Forest’s did. Forest failed to score in only five of twenty.
Sixty per cent between the two records against an implied 57% at 3/4. A slim edge rather than a strong one.
A. Isak Is Evens and His Record Says Otherwise
One goal in 342 minutes at 0.26 per 90, with a last six reading 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 and 0. That is one in six – roughly 17% – against an implied 50% at the price. The market is pricing a reputation our data does not yet contain, because those 342 minutes are his Liverpool minutes and not his Newcastle ones. We are not backing it either way, but nobody should take Evens on that record without knowing what is behind it.
M. Gibbs-White 1+ Shot on Target Is the Other Trap
Nought, 1, 3, 0, 0 and 1 in his last six – on target in three of them, or 50%. The price implies 58%. His 1.10 per 90 across 1,385 minutes reads well until you check which matches the shots came in, and the market is ahead of the record here rather than behind it.
Mohamed Salah and Ibrahima Konate Are Not in the Data or the Odds
Both appear in our tables from last season – Salah with 38 shots and 12 on target, Konate with 30 tackles – and neither is in Liverpool’s current squad list, the expected eleven, or bet365’s player prices. Bookmakers do not price players who cannot play. Both have been removed and nothing on this page is built on either.
- 1Over 9.5 Corners11.25 between the two sides
- 2A. Mac Allister 2+ Tackles2 or more in 5 of his last 6
- 3I. Sangare 3+ Fouls3 or more in 2 of his last 6
- 4Igor Jesus 1+ Shot on TargetOn target in 4 of his last 6
Over 9.5 Corners
Liverpool took 6.45 a game and Forest 4.80, with 34.30 touches in the box to Forest’s 22.45.
The line opened at 1.975 and is now 1.727. Money has come for it, which is worth knowing before you take the shorter price.
A. Mac Allister 2+ Tackles
Two, 3, 2, 1, 2 and 2 in his last six, at 2.16 per 90 across 1,581 minutes.
Eighty-three per cent against an implied 65% at 8/15 – the largest edge on the page and the steadiest run behind it.
I. Sangare 3+ Fouls
Two, 3, 0, 0, 3 and 1 in his last six, at 1.88 per 90 across 1,052 minutes.
Thirty-three per cent against an implied 25% at 3/1. A holding midfielder in a 3-4-2-1 facing Liverpool’s front three is the shape that produces fouls.
Igor Jesus 1+ Shot on Target
One, 1, 0, 3, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 1.24 per 90 across 1,378 minutes.
Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 58% at 8/11. Liam Delap’s arrival is the risk rather than the record.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Prices are bet365 and were checked on 28 August.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Key Stats and Insights
- Evens for Alexander Isak to score, against a record of one goal in 342 minutes and one in his last six appearances — roughly 17% against an implied 50%.
- 5 of 6 for Alexis Mac Allister clearing two tackles, at 8/15. That is 83% against an implied 65%, the widest edge in favour of the record on this page.
- 2.11 goals a game away for Forest against 0.91 at home — the most inverted home-away split we have logged from any side.
- 1.975 to 1.727 on over 9.5 corners since the market opened, a clear shortening on a line neither side’s figures had moved.
- 11.25 corners between the two, with Liverpool registering 34.30 touches in the box to Forest’s 22.45.
- €135m for Elliot Anderson to Manchester City, on top of Taiwo Awoniyi to Coventry — Forest’s most-used midfielder and a forward, both gone.
- 9 unavailable at Liverpool, including Hugo Ekitiké until January and Curtis Jones, Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tips
Over 9.5 Corners — 11.25 Between the Two Sides, 8/11
Liverpool took 6.45 corners a game and Forest 4.80, and Liverpool register 34.30 touches in the box to Forest’s 22.45. A side entering the final third 58.60 times a match against one that clears the ball 26.80 times produces corners whether or not it produces goals.
The interesting part is the movement. This line opened at 1.975 and is now 1.727 — a shift from roughly 51% implied to 58%. Neither side’s figures changed in that window, so somebody has taken a view, and it is the same view the underlying numbers support.
What beats it is Forest’s shape. A 3-4-2-1 with Diomande, Milenkovic and Murillo across the back defends the box rather than the flanks, and if Liverpool are comfortable early they may not need to force it. Their 4.80 away corners is the lower figure and Forest at 15.6% to win will not be attacking much.
A. Mac Allister 2+ Tackles — 5 of His Last 6, 8/15
Two, three, two, one, two and two in his last six, at 2.16 per 90 across 1,581 minutes. Five of six clearing two, and the single miss was one tackle rather than none.
That is 83% against an implied 65% at the price — the largest gap in favour of the record anywhere on this page. It is also the steadiest run: no single match inflating an average, no zeros, and 1,581 minutes behind it rather than a handful of cameos.
The line matters more than the player here. Mac Allister at 3+ tackles is 3/2, implying 40%, and he has cleared three once in six. The market has that priced correctly and the 2+ line wrong, which is the whole argument — more on how we find that on our tackles and fouls prop bets page.
I. Sangaré 3+ Fouls — 3 or More in 2 of His Last 6, 3/1
Two, three, nought, nought, three and one in his last six, at 1.88 per 90 across 1,052 minutes. Two of six at three or more, which is 33% against an implied 25% at 3/1.
The shorter lines are worse value, and that is the point. His 1+ foul price implies 82% and he has managed one in four of six — 67%. The market is ahead of him at the short end and behind him at the long one, which is a pattern worth looking for rather than an accident.
Forest sit at 15.6% on the market and line up 3-4-2-1 with Sangaré holding in front of the back three. A midfielder in that role against Wirtz, Gakpo and Ngumoha fouls because the alternative is worse. What beats it is Forest keeping the ball better than their 47.1% possession suggests.
Igor Jesus 1+ Shot on Target — 4 of His Last 6, 8/11
One, one, nought, three, nought and two in his last six, at 1.24 per 90 across 1,378 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 58%.
He is also the largest attacking sample Forest have left. Awoniyi has gone to Coventry and Anderson to Manchester City, which leaves Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White carrying 82 shots between them across the twenty.
Liam Delap is the risk and it is a real one. He has just signed and may make his debut, and Igor Jesus’s price was set before that. If Delap starts or comes on early the minutes go, and a shots on target line is worthless without them. That is why this is the fourth leg rather than the first, and why the same question runs through our shots on target prop bets.
How the Four Fit Together
Three prop bets and one team market, and unusually for a build they barely overlap. Corners needs Liverpool attacking; Mac Allister needs the ball to be contested; Sangaré needs Forest defending; Igor Jesus needs Forest to get up the pitch at least occasionally.
That is a longer price than a correlated build would give you, but no single outcome lands all four. Our bet builder tips page explains why we usually prefer the correlated version and what you give up by taking this one.
The leg most likely to let it down is Igor Jesus, and it is Delap rather than the record.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Liverpool. The market makes it 62.0% Liverpool, 20.0% the draw and 15.6% Forest, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our own model disagrees and it is worth explaining why. Run on the records it gives Liverpool 45%, the draw 24% and Forest 31%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.48. That reading is driven by one number — Forest scored 2.11 goals a game away from home against 0.91 at the City Ground, the most inverted split we have logged.
A fifteen-point gap on the away side is past the point where we defer to the price. Forest have also lost Elliot Anderson for €135m and Taiwo Awoniyi since those figures were recorded, which the model cannot see. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Shots on target prop bets this weekend
- Corner predictions across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.