Three Premier League players to be carded this weekend: Vitaly Janelt at 12/5, James Garner at 11/4 and Chris Richards at 11/2. All three are picked from how often they foul rather than how often they have been booked, because fouling is the larger sample and the better guide.
The Three Picks at a Glance
| Player | Team | Fouls per 90 | Booked in last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitaly Janelt | Brentford | 1.81 | 7 of 10 |
| James Garner | Everton | 1.39 | 6 of 10 |
| Chris Richards | Crystal Palace | 0.61 | 1 of 10 |
Why We Use Fouls Rather Than Cards
A player commits twenty or thirty fouls in the time he collects two or three bookings. The bigger number is the steadier guide, and it is what our model reads.
We measured this across 405 players with 600 minutes or more. A player’s fouls per 90 predicts his card rate at r = 0.490, and the relationship is close to linear:
- Under 0.75 fouls per 90 — 0.147 cards per 90
- 0.75 to 1.25 — 0.201
- 1.25 to 1.75 — 0.244
- 1.75 and above — 0.332
Position barely matters once fouling is known. Defenders average 0.212 cards per 90 and forwards 0.212 — identical. Midfielders are marginally higher at 0.251. A forward who commits 1.5 fouls a game and a defender who commits 1.5 are booked at almost exactly the same rate, which is not what most card previews assume.
1. Vitaly Janelt, Brentford — 12/5
Bournemouth v Brentford, Saturday 15:00
Janelt has been booked in 7 of his last 10 for Brentford, at 0.76 cards per 90 across 947 minutes, and he has started all three matches this season.
His fouling is what makes the case. 1.81 fouls per 90 puts him in the top band of the 405 players we measured, where the average card rate is 0.332 per 90. He is a holding midfielder whose job is to break up play, and he does it often enough to be booked for it.
Our model gives him about 45% against the 29% implied by 12/5.
He landed this market for us at 3/1 on 5 September. That is one result rather than evidence, and worth saying so.
2. James Garner, Everton — 11/4
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton, Saturday 17:30
Garner has been booked in 6 of his last 10 for Everton, at 0.48 cards per 90 across 1,680 minutes — the longest sample of the three.
He commits 1.39 fouls per 90, which sits in the band where the measured card rate is 0.244. Our model gives him about 35% against the 27% implied by 11/4.
He is a fixture in that midfield. 1,680 minutes is the longest record of the three, and the fouls come from the job – a deep midfielder breaking up play against a Tottenham side that will have the ball at home.
3. Chris Richards, Crystal Palace — 11/2
Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town, Saturday 15:00
Richards has been booked once in his last 10, at 0.18 cards per 90 across 1,469 minutes, starting all three this season. He commits 0.61 fouls per 90.
Our model gives him about 16% against the 15% implied by 11/2 — a one-point gap, which sits inside the bookmaker’s margin rather than outside it.
We are not telling you the price is wrong. It is roughly right. Richards is here because he is a defender in a fixture Palace are expected to dominate, and a card leg is useful in a bet builder even when the price is fair. If you want a longer-priced name in a build, he is the one.
All Three Together
At 12/5, 11/4 and 11/2, the three combine to about 75/1.
Be honest about what that is. Three legs from three different matches is an accumulator, not a bet builder — the legs are independent and the prices multiply cleanly. Our combined figure is about 2.5% against a price implying 1.2%.
Two Things Worth Knowing
All three referees are appointed, and we have applied each one’s own record rather than a league average. That matters more than most card previews allow — across one week this month, five named officials moved five card lines in five different directions.
Cards are a volatile market. A tight game can pass with three bookings and a scrappy one produce seven, and no model reads that reliably. The numbers here tell you which players put themselves in the way of a card most often, which is the part that is knowable.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Premier League player is most likely to be booked this weekend?
Vitaly Janelt of Brentford, at 12/5 for Bournemouth v Brentford on Saturday. He has been booked in 7 of his last 10 and commits 1.81 fouls per 90, the highest rate of the three players here.
How do you pick players to be carded?
From fouls committed per 90 rather than card totals. Across 405 players we measured, fouling predicts card rate at r = 0.490, and a player commits twenty or thirty fouls in the time he collects two or three bookings — so the fouling number is the steadier guide.
Does the referee matter?
Yes, and more than most previews allow. Across one week this month, five named officials moved five card lines in five different directions against a league average. Where we hold a referee’s record we apply it; where we do not, we say so.
Are these tips?
Janelt and Garner are selections our model supports. Richards is a builder leg where the price is roughly fair. All three are shown with the numbers behind them so you can judge for yourself.
- Yellow card tips — every card market we have priced this week
- Player Props Bet Finder — every priced player, with his record over the last ten
- Bet builder tips
- Premier League tips
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.