West Brom vs Burnley Bet Builder Tips
Our four-leg bet builder is under 3.5 goals, West Brom to win or draw, under 9.5 corners and no both teams to score. Every leg comes from how often it has landed across the two sides’ last twenty matches, and no two share a market.
Under 3.5 goals anchors it at 18 of West Brom’s last 20. They have seen four goals in a match twice all season, a rate of 10%, and both sides have failed to score in eight of twenty.
The corners leg is the unusual one. Burnley take 3.50 corners a game, the lowest team count we have recorded, and West Brom 4.75 — a combined 8.25 against a line of 9.5.
West Brom vs Burnley Prediction
We are not publishing a percentage on the result, and the reason is worth explaining. Burnley’s last twenty matches were in the Premier League and West Brom’s in the Championship, so the two records describe different standards of football.
This is the first relegated side we have handled, and the adjustment we use for promoted clubs does not simply run backwards. Applying it in reverse makes Burnley — a side with one win in twenty — the 51% favourite. Leaving the figures unadjusted gives West Brom 51%. Regressing both towards the Championship average lands at 40% and 30%.
Thirty-three points between three defensible methods is not a prediction, so we are using the market’s. It has Burnley at 37%, West Brom at 34% and the draw at 28% once the bookmaker’s margin is removed.
The market has Burnley as favourites, which is the answer to the question this page has been circling. A side with one win in its last twenty is priced shorter than one that has lost five, because the bookmakers are pricing the division change rather than the record.
That also tells us which of our three methods is closest. Regression to the Championship mean gave West Brom 40% against the market’s 34% — out by six points, where leaving the figures unadjusted was out by seventeen and inverting the promoted multipliers by sixteen.
The goals markets are a different matter, because they barely depend on the adjustment. Neither side scores freely and both blank in two matches out of five, whether Burnley’s defence improves a lot or a little in the drop down.
West Brom vs Burnley Betting Tips
1. Under 3.5 Goals. This has landed in 18 of West Brom’s last 20. They have gone over that line twice all season, and both sides have failed to score in eight of twenty.
2. Under 9.5 Corners. Fourteen of West Brom’s last 20. Burnley take 3.50 corners a game, the lowest team count in our data, and the two combine for 8.25.
3. West Brom to Win or Draw. Fifteen of their last 20 ended in a win or a draw. They have lost five matches in twenty against a Burnley side that has won one.
West Brom vs Burnley Stats
| Market | West Brom | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.05 | 2.05 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 5-10-5 | 1-7-12 |
| Clean sheets | 9 of 20 | 1 of 20 |
| Failed to score | 8 of 20 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots per game | 12.60 | 9.75 |
| Touches in the box | 20.40 | 16.70 |
| Expected goals for | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| Corners per game | 4.75 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 45% |
West Brom’s figures were recorded in the Championship and Burnley’s in the Premier League. Both cover the last 20 league matches.
West Brom vs Burnley Key Stats
- 1 win in 20 for Burnley, with seven draws and twelve defeats
- 41 goals conceded by Burnley across those twenty matches, at 2.05 a game
- 1 clean sheet in 20 for Burnley, the fewest of any side in our data
- 10 draws in 20 for West Brom, the second most we have recorded
- 8 of 20 — matches in which each side has failed to score
- 37% against 34% — the market’s price on Burnley against West Brom, despite that record
- 3.50 corners a game for Burnley, the lowest team count in our data
- 16.70 touches in the box for Burnley, also the lowest we have recorded
Why Have Burnley Won Only One Game in Twenty?
Because those twenty matches were in the Premier League, where they were relegated. They conceded 41 goals across the twenty, kept a single clean sheet, and managed 0.78 expected goals a game against 2.00 conceded — the widest gap of any side in our data.
Their attacking numbers are the smallest of any side we have covered: 9.75 shots a game, 6.15 of them inside the box, 16.70 touches in the opposition area and 3.50 corners.
They will be better than that in the Championship. How much better is the question this page cannot answer with confidence, which is why we are not putting a number on the result.
Which Burnley Statistic Is Most Misleading?
Over 3.5 goals, which has landed in 45% of their last twenty matches against West Brom’s 10%. Read at face value that suggests an open side who play in entertaining, high-scoring games, and it is the figure a bettor is most likely to act on.
It is the opposite. Burnley conceded 41 goals in twenty Premier League games and scored 19 — the four-goal matches were heavy defeats, not shoot-outs.
That figure will not carry into the Championship, and it is the clearest example on this page of why a relegated side’s numbers need reading in context rather than at face value.
West Brom vs Burnley Team News
West Brom are without Mikey Johnston, who has a broken leg, and Conor Townsend with a cruciate ligament injury.
Burnley are missing Josh Cullen with a cruciate ligament injury until the end of September, and Aaron Ramsey, whose absence the data does not specify.
West Brom vs Burnley Corners and Cards
Corners are low at both ends. West Brom take 4.75 a game and Burnley 3.50 — a combined 8.25 against a typical line of 9.5. Burnley’s figure is the lowest team corner count of any side we have covered, below Sunderland’s 3.70, and under 9.5 has landed in 14 of West Brom’s last twenty.
The card section needs a referee, and none has been appointed. West Brom’s matches produce 3.65 cards across both sides and Burnley’s 3.15, a combined 3.40.
We would want the official’s Championship or Premier League figure before pricing that, not the career average published on most sites — across nine referees we checked, those understated the real rate by an average of 1.19 cards a game.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
