Our Birmingham vs Southampton bet builder tips, predictions and best bets rest on one number: Southampton failed to score once in twenty matches, the lowest blank count in our data.
Cyle Larin has hit the target in five of his last six and is 4/9. Every player below is in the expected line-up.
Birmingham City vs Southampton
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 31 August.
Birmingham vs Southampton Key Stats and Insights
- 1 blank in 20 for Southampton, the lowest failed-to-score count in our data, against six for Birmingham.
- 13 wins and 1 defeat in twenty for Southampton, and 27 goals across eleven home matches at 2.45 a game.
- 5 of 6 for Cyle Larin hitting the target, at 4/9 — 83% against an implied 69%. He has 40 shots and 21 on target across 1,144 minutes.
- 71.35 final third entries a game for Birmingham against Southampton’s 59.15 — from a side scoring 1.10 goals a match.
- 4.63 cards a game for Anthony Backhouse across 54 Championship matches in his last three seasons, against a published career figure of 2.71. That gap of 1.92 is the largest in our card tips data.
- 12.35 fouls a game for Birmingham against Southampton’s 9.90 — the higher figure by some distance.
- 2.300 to 2.500 on Birmingham since the market opened, with Southampton shortening from 2.875 to 2.750.
Birmingham vs Southampton Bet Builder Tips
C. Larin 1+ Shot on Target — 5 of His Last 6, 4/9
3, 2, 2, 1, 0 and 1 in his last six, at 1.65 per 90 across 1,144 minutes. Five of six is 83% and the price implies 69%.
Forty shots and 21 on target is the largest attacking sample in either squad, and he has eleven goals across the same period. Southampton failed to score once in twenty — the lowest blank count in our data — and Larin is the reason why.
The 1.5 line at 9/4 is the longer version of the same view, at 50% against an implied 31%, and it is a pointer above. This one is in the build because a leg with a floor does less damage to the other three. What beats it is Birmingham’s defensive record, which is the better of the two at 1.05 conceded a game and one at St Andrew’s.
C. Bragg to be Carded — 0.51 per 90, 10/3
3 yellows in 534 minutes at 0.51 per 90 — the joint-highest card rate among the twenty-two players named in the expected line-ups — which puts him around 40% against an implied 23%.
Anthony Backhouse is what makes it a bet. He books 4.63 a game across 54 Championship matches in his last three seasons and 4.80 last season alone, against a published career figure of 2.71 — a gap of 1.92, the largest correction in our data. Southampton’s matches averaged 4.10 cards and Birmingham’s 3.35.
The 534 minutes are the honest caveat and on our own scale that is squad-player territory. He is in the expected eleven with Caspar Jander out until 10 September, so the minutes should come, but a substitution on the hour makes the price academic.
R. Manning 3+ Shots — 2 of His Last 6, 9/2
1, 5, 1, 3, 0 and 1 in his last six, at 1.76 per 90 across 1,635 minutes. Two of six clearing three is 33% against an implied 18%.
Thirty-two shots from a full-back is unusual volume, and the minutes behind it are the best on the page — 90, 90, 90 in his last three and 1,635 across the season. There is no rotation question here.
The run is boom-or-bust rather than steady, which is exactly why the longer line is the value one. His 0.5 line at 1/3 implies 75% against a record of five in six, which the market has about right. Between accurate at the short end and generous at the long one, the long end is where we take it.
This is the first player_shots selection we have published. The Championship props carry no fouls, fouls won or tackles markets — the three that have produced most of our Premier League selections — and shots is the deepest market they do offer at 233 lines.
Both Teams to Score — 15 of Southampton’s Last 20, 11 of Birmingham’s
Southampton blanked once in twenty and saw goals at both ends in fifteen — 75%, the higher of the two rates. They scored 2.40 a game across the sample and 2.33 away from home.
Birmingham are the question. Six blanks in twenty and 0.90 goals a game on the road, though this is at St Andrew’s where they managed 1.30. Both sides kept five clean sheets in twenty, so neither defence shuts sides out with any regularity.
At 1.667 the price implies 60% and the two records average 65%. A slim edge rather than a strong one, and it is the leg most likely to fail — Birmingham scoring is the whole of it.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 4/9, 10/3, 9/2 and 4/6, which compounds to around 50/1. Ryan Manning’s shots line is what makes the price long and it is there on the numbers — 33% against an implied 18%, from a full-back who has played every minute of his last three.
It was four until we read the per-match minutes. Demarai Gray’s card at 5/1 looked like the longest price on the page with a real record behind it — 0.38 per 90 across 718 minutes. His last three appearances are 45, 28 and 16 minutes, so that rate never gets a full match to work in. At thirty minutes it produces roughly 12% against an implied 17%, which turns the best-looking price here into a bet against ourselves.
Jay Stansfield at two shots on target was the obvious fourth at 50% against an implied 33%, and it shares a market group with Larin. Manning’s shots line does not, which is why it is the one in. Our bet builder tips page sets out why market group matters more than raw edge when choosing between two.
Larin, Manning and both teams to score all need Southampton attacking, which they have done in nineteen of twenty. Bragg needs the match scrappy, which Birmingham’s 12.35 fouls a game supports. That is a concentration worth knowing — three of the four fail together if Southampton are contained.
Birmingham vs Southampton Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Southampton. The market makes it 38.3% Birmingham, 27.5% the draw and 34.2% Southampton, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our model puts Southampton higher at 45%, from expected goals of 1.10 and 1.55. That is an eleven-point gap, just past where we defer to the price, and the reason for it is Southampton scoring 2.40 a game against Birmingham’s 1.10.
The reason to doubt our own number is that Birmingham’s defensive record is the better of the two — 1.05 conceded a game against 1.00, and one a game at St Andrew’s. The money has moved our way rather than the market’s: Birmingham drifted from 2.300 to 2.500 since the price opened while Southampton shortened from 2.875 to 2.750. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.