Our Lincoln vs Blackburn bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a promoted side who scored in every one of their last twenty matches. Lincoln won fifteen of them and kept ten clean sheets — seventeen in League One.
Adam Reach has had a shot in all six of his last six.
Lincoln City vs Blackburn Rovers
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Seventeen of Lincoln’s were played in League One. Prices are bet365, checked 1 September.
Lincoln vs Blackburn Key Stats and Insights
- 0 blanks in 20 for Lincoln — they scored in every match of the sample, the only side in our data to manage it.
- 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats for Lincoln, with ten clean sheets. Seventeen of those twenty were League One fixtures.
- 8 goals in 10 home matches for Blackburn at 0.80 a game, the lowest home scoring figure in our Championship data.
- 6 of 6 for Adam Reach having a shot, at 4/11, with 90, 90 and 89 minutes in his last three.
- 0.65 cards per 90 for Freddie Draper, the highest rate among the confirmed starters, at 3/1.
- 2.500 to 3.100 on Blackburn since the market opened, with Lincoln shortening from 2.500 to 2.250. It opened level.
- 69.05 final third entries a game for Lincoln against Blackburn’s 51.30, with 41.3% possession — a direct side that gets forward without the ball.
Lincoln vs Blackburn Bet Builder Tips
A. Reach 1+ Shot — 6 of His Last 6, 4/11
1, 2, 2, 1, 1 and 2 in his last six, at 1.64 per 90 across 986 minutes. A shot in every match of the run, with no blanks anywhere in it.
The floor is what makes this rather than the ceiling. Three of the six were exactly one, so he is not a volume shooter — he is a midfielder who gets one away in every game he plays. The price implies 73% against a perfect record.
He has played 90, 90 and 89 minutes in his last three, so there is no rotation question. The 1.5 line at 13/8 is the longer version of the same sequence at 50% against an implied 38%, and it is a pointer above. Our Championship tips pages lean on shots because bet365 price no fouls or tackles at this level.
S. McLoughlin to be Carded — 0.35 per 90, 9/2
Seven yellows in 1,800 minutes at 0.35 per 90 — about 30% against an implied 18%, the widest card gap on this page.
Eighteen hundred minutes is a full season and he has played 90 in each of his last three, which is unusual for a card selection. Most of the rates we publish come off partial seasons; this one does not.
He is the Blackburn centre-back facing a Lincoln side that scored in all twenty of their matches and enters the final third 69.05 times a game. Will Finnie books 4.09 a game across 22 Championship matches against a career figure of 2.77, so the official supports it — though 22 matches is a modest sample and his League One rate is lower at 3.35. Our card tips always use the level being played rather than the career figure.
B. House 3+ Shots — 3 of His Last 6, 11/10
3, 3, 1, 1, 0 and 3 in his last six, at 2.11 per 90 across 1,321 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 48% — level rather than value, and the record is why it is here.
Thirty-one shots is the highest total in the Lincoln squad and he has five goals. The run is boom-or-bust — three threes against a zero and two ones — which is the honest shape of it.
Lincoln enter the final third 69.05 times a game against Blackburn’s 51.30, the widest gap on Tuesday’s card, and take 26.80 touches in the box against 17.55. Blackburn concede 1.50 a game away from home. The volume should be there even if the price is fair.
No Both Teams to Score — 10 of Lincoln’s Last 20, 9 of Blackburn’s
Blackburn failed to score in six of twenty and managed eight goals across ten home matches at 0.80 a game — the lowest home scoring figure in our Championship data. Their away record of 1.30 is the better one, which is the argument against.
Lincoln kept ten clean sheets, the highest count on Tuesday’s card, and conceded 0.85 a game. They also scored in all twenty of their matches, so the leg needs Lincoln to score and Blackburn not to.
The caution is the division. Ten clean sheets in League One is not ten clean sheets in the Championship, and Blackburn’s 1.30 away goals were earned at this level. If either figure regresses it is Lincoln’s.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 9/2 into a percentage and the market is saying 18%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — cards per 90, or how often he has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| F. Draper to be carded | 3/1 | 25% | 48% |
| S. McLoughlin to be carded | 9/2 | 18% | 30% |
| A. Reach 1+ shot | 4/11 | 73% | 100% |
| T. Cantwell to be carded | 11/4 | 27% | 36% |
| A. Reach 2+ shots | 13/8 | 38% | 50% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. House 3+ shots | 11/10 | 48% | 50% |
| B. House anytime goalscorer | 5/2 | 29% | 29% |
And the ones priced above what the players have done:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| F. Draper anytime goalscorer | 21/10 | 32% | 20% |
| T. Cantwell 5+ shots | 12/1 | 8% | 17% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.1% across the three match result outcomes. So a fair price will still look slightly against us, and a small gap in our favour is closer to level than it appears.
Draper is the widest gap and the one we would treat most carefully. His 0.65 cards per 90 comes off 416 minutes and his last three read 65, 75 and 59 — he starts and comes off around the hour, which halves the exposure the rate assumes.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 4/11, 9/2, 11/10 and the goals market, which compounds to around 30/1. McLoughlin’s card carries the price and Reach’s shot carries the floor.
Reach and House both need Lincoln attacking, which they have done in all twenty of their matches. McLoughlin needs them attacking too — a centre-back is booked when his side is under pressure. No both teams to score needs Blackburn contained.
That is a more correlated build than we usually publish, and the reason is that three of the four rest on the same reading: Lincoln pushing forward and Blackburn struggling to get out. Our bet builder tips page explains why we would normally spread it, and on this fixture the numbers point one way strongly enough to accept it.
Lincoln vs Blackburn Prediction
We are predicting 1-0 to Lincoln. The market makes it 41.9% Lincoln, 27.7% the draw and 30.4% Blackburn, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our model has Lincoln at 55%, from expected goals of 1.80 and 1.06 — a thirteen-point gap on the home side.
Seventeen of Lincoln’s twenty matches were League One fixtures. They won fifteen, scored 2.20 a game and kept ten clean sheets in a division below, and the market has discounted that where our model has not. It is the same case as Bolton at Sheffield United on the same night.
What is worth noting is that the money has gone the other way. This opened level at 36.6% each and Lincoln have since come in from 2.500 to 2.250 while Blackburn drifted to 3.100. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.