Our Ipswich vs Liverpool bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture where the corners market looks badly mispriced, and we have five best bets ranging from 19/20 to 13/5.
The two sides take 11.95 corners a game between them and over 9.5 pays 19/20. Liverpool have won one of their last six.
Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
Ipswich Town
- L2-5at Manchester United30 Aug
- W2-1Sunderland22 Aug
- W3-0Queens Park Rangers2 May
- D2-2at Southampton28 Apr
- D0-0at West Bromwich Albion25 Apr
- W2-1at Charlton Athletic22 Apr
Liverpool
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 Aug
- D2-2at Newcastle United23 Aug
- D1-1Brentford24 May
- L2-4at Aston Villa15 May
- D1-1Chelsea9 May
- L2-3at Manchester United3 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Eighteen of Ipswich’s were Championship fixtures and four of Liverpool’s were European — the recent results tab shows which is which by date. Our prediction uses Premier League matches only. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
Ipswich vs Liverpool Key Stats and Insights
- 11.95 corners a game between the two sides, against a line set at 9.5. On those figures ten or more lands about 75% of the time and the price implies 51%.
- 1 win in 6 for Liverpool, whose form line reads D D D L D L, with 12 goals scored and 17 conceded across ten away matches.
- 4.55 cards a game for Darren England across 55 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a career figure of 2.91 — a correction of 1.64.
- 2.30 own cards a game for Ipswich against Liverpool’s 1.65, and 4.55 cards a match against 3.70.
- 0.58 cards per 90 for Cédric Kipré, the highest rate among the confirmed starters, at 13/5.
- 12 players in our tables have no price, including Mohamed Salah and Ibrahima Konaté — both flagged as likely departures on our Liverpool page last week.
- 33.30 touches in the box for Liverpool against Ipswich’s 25.90, with 16.35 shots a game against 13.65.
Ipswich vs Liverpool Bet Builder Tips
Over 9.5 Corners — 11.95 a Game, 19/20
Ipswich took 5.70 corners a match and Liverpool 6.25, for 11.95 between them against a line set at 9.5. On those figures ten or more lands about 75% of the time and the price implies 51%.
That is the widest gap on this page and among the widest we have found in any market. Both sides also take three or more before half time on their own — 3.00 and 3.15 — so the line can be cleared inside an hour.
Ipswich’s figure is the caution and it is mostly a Championship one. Regress it to five a game and the pair still produce 11.25, which clears the line about 70% of the time. Liverpool alone average 6.25 and take 33.30 touches in the box a match against Ipswich’s 25.90. Our corner predictions page covers the same market across the round.
C. Kipré to be Carded — 0.58 per 90, 13/5
Six yellows in 934 minutes at 0.58 per 90 — the highest card rate among the twenty-two confirmed starters — which puts him around 44% against an implied 28%.
Darren England is what makes it more than a rate. He books 4.55 a game across 55 Premier League matches in his last three seasons against a published career figure of 2.91 — a correction of 1.64, and among the largest we hold. Our referee card stats page carries the full list.
Ipswich take 2.30 cards of their own a game and their matches averaged 4.55, both the higher figures. Kipré is the same player who carried the highest rate in either squad on our Manchester United page last week, and he has played 90, 13 and 90 minutes in his last three.
D. Szoboszlai 3+ Shots — 3 of His Last 6, 6/5
3, 3, 2, 1, 3 and 2 in his last six, at 2.01 per 90 across 1,698 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 45%.
Thirty-eight shots is the highest total in either squad and he has played 90 minutes in each of his last three. With Mohamed Salah gone, the shot volume at Liverpool runs through him and Cody Gakpo, who between them have 69 of the shots in our tables.
The floor is one rather than nought, which matters more than the average on this market. Ipswich concede 0.78 a game at Portman Road and kept seven clean sheets in twenty — that is the argument against, and eighteen of those were Championship matches.
R. Gravenberch 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3 of His Last 6, 11/8
1, 3, 1, 2, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 1.67 per 90 across 1,512 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 42%.
Twenty-eight fouls drawn is the highest total in either squad, and 41 tackles is the highest defensive total as well — he is involved at both ends more than anyone on the pitch.
Ipswich commit 11.80 fouls a game and take 2.30 cards, both the higher figures. A midfielder receiving under pressure from a side that fouls is where the market lives, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains why the opposition’s discipline matters as much as the player’s.
The single blank is the caution and it came in a full ninety.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 13/5 into a percentage and the market is saying 28%. We work out the same number from the record — cards per 90, corners a game, or how often a player has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 corners | 19/20 | 51% | 75% |
| C. Kipré to be carded | 13/5 | 28% | 44% |
| J. Frimpong 2+ fouls drawn | 13/8 | 38% | 50% |
| R. Gravenberch 2+ fouls drawn | 11/8 | 42% | 50% |
| A. Mac Allister to be carded | 15/4 | 21% | 29% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Szoboszlai 3+ shots | 6/5 | 45% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 4/7 | 64% | 62% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Isak anytime goalscorer | 10/11 | 52% | 40% |
| Ipswich to win | 9/2 | 17.8% | not published |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.8% across the three match result outcomes.
Isak is the one to avoid. Three goals in 432 minutes reads as 0.63 per 90 and regresses to about 40% — he is the shortest goalscorer price on the card and the market is asking for more than the sample supports.
Ipswich vs Liverpool Betting Tips
Five selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Over 9.5 corners — 19/20. The two sides take 11.95 corners a game between them against a line of 9.5, which lands about 75% of the time. The widest gap on the page and the widest we have found in any market. Ipswich’s 5.70 is mostly a Championship figure, so regress it to five and the pair still produce 11.25 — that clears the line about 70% of the time.
Cédric Kipré to be carded — 13/5. Six yellows in 934 minutes is 0.58 per 90, the highest rate among the twenty-two confirmed starters. Darren England books 4.55 a game across 55 Premier League matches against a career figure of 2.91, and Ipswich take 2.30 cards of their own.
Dominik Szoboszlai three or more shots — 6/5. Three or more in three of his last six, from 38 shots across 1,698 minutes — the highest total in either squad. With Mohamed Salah gone, Liverpool’s volume runs through him and Cody Gakpo. The floor is one rather than nought.
Ryan Gravenberch two or more fouls drawn — 11/8. Twenty-eight fouls drawn is the highest total in either squad and 41 tackles is the highest defensive one too. Ipswich commit 11.80 fouls a game and take 2.30 cards, both the higher figures.
Jeremie Frimpong two or more fouls drawn — 13/8. Three of his last six, at 1.69 per 90. The run is boom-or-bust with three blanks in it, and his last three read 71, 90 and 16 minutes — a substitution is the risk rather than the rate.
The four in our bet builder are the corners, Kipré, Szoboszlai and Gravenberch. They come from four markets that fail for different reasons: corners need territory, a card needs a scrappy match, Szoboszlai needs Liverpool shooting, and Gravenberch needs Ipswich fouling. We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests — take the price your bookmaker shows.
The corners leg carries the widest edge and the softest evidence. Ipswich’s 5.70 a game is a Championship figure and the selection leans on it holding a division higher.
Ipswich vs Liverpool Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Liverpool. The market makes it 62.4% Liverpool, 19.7% the draw and 17.8% Ipswich, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our model gives Liverpool 41%, the draw 24% and Ipswich 35%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.66.
That figure uses Premier League matches only. Ipswich have played two — a 2-5 defeat at Manchester United and a 2-1 win over Sunderland — which is four scored and six conceded, regressed against a divisional prior. Their eighteen Championship matches are excluded rather than averaged in, because a 3-0 win over QPR in May tells you nothing about Friday.
Weighting all twenty equally made Ipswich favourites at 47%. On the two matches actually played at this level they are 35%, and the side we call flips.
The gap to the market is still seventeen points and that part is squad quality rather than data. Liverpool have drawn their last three at 2-2, 2-2 and 1-1, and lost Mohamed Salah since these figures were recorded — their own results do not support 62% either. Bet365 are offering £30 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
Get a Free Bet for Ipswich vs Liverpool
New customers can claim a welcome offer from any of the bookmakers below and use it on Friday night’s game at Portman Road.
More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Premier League betting tips all season
- Corner predictions across the round
- Tackles and fouls prop bets this weekend
- Best Premier League betting sites compared
Upcoming Football Tips
Today
19:45Millwall vs WrexhamChampionship11 tips19:45Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff CityChampionship12 tips19:45West Bromwich Albion vs Charlton AthleticChampionship10 tips20:00Burnley vs MiddlesbroughChampionship6 tipsFri 4 Sep
20:00Ipswich Town vs LiverpoolPremier League9 tips18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.