Our Arsenal vs Chelsea bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from the meanest defence in the division against the leakiest, and we have three best bets ranging from 4/5 to 3/2.
Arsenal have conceded one goal in seven Premier League matches. Chelsea’s last two finished 4-3 and 3-2.
Arsenal vs Chelsea
Arsenal
- W1-0at Aston Villa31 Aug
- W3-0Coventry City21 Aug
- W2-1at Crystal Palace24 May
- W1-0Burnley18 May
- W1-0at West Ham United10 May
- W3-0Fulham2 May
Chelsea
- W4-3Brighton30 Aug
- W3-2at Fulham24 Aug
- L1-2at Sunderland24 May
- W2-1Tottenham Hotspur19 May
- D1-1at Liverpool9 May
- L1-3Nottingham Forest4 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Seven of Arsenal’s and three of Chelsea’s were European fixtures. Prices are bet365, checked 3 September.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Key Stats and Insights
- 1 goal conceded in 7 Premier League matches for Arsenal, and 0.30 a game at the Emirates across their last twenty.
- 4-3 and 3-2 in Chelsea’s last two matches, against Brighton and Fulham. They have conceded 2.10 a game across their last twenty and 2.11 across their last nine in the league.
- 2.45 own cards a game for Chelsea against Arsenal’s 1.20, the widest disciplinary gap on any page this weekend.
- 10.85 corners a game between the two sides against a line of 9.5.
- 4.46 cards a game for Chris Kavanagh across 74 Premier League matches, against a career figure of 3.51.
- 58 shots in 1,396 minutes for João Pedro, the highest total in either squad, with 36 fouls drawn alongside it.
- 19 fouls drawn in 712 minutes for Myles Lewis-Skelly, at 2.40 per 90 — the highest rate among the players available.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
M. Lewis-Skelly 2+ Fouls Drawn — 4 of His Last 6, 4/5
2, 3, 2, 4, 1 and 1 in his last six, at 2.40 per 90 across 712 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 56%.
That rate is the highest among the players available on either side, and nineteen fouls drawn from a full-back is unusual volume — it comes from carrying the ball forward rather than from being fouled in the box.
Chelsea commit 10.25 fouls a game and take 2.45 cards of their own, against Arsenal’s 1.20. That is the widest disciplinary gap on any page this weekend, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page covers why the opposition’s habits matter as much as the player’s.
Over 9.5 Corners — 10.85 a Game Between the Sides
Arsenal take 5.10 corners a match and Chelsea 5.75, for 10.85 between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 64% of the time on those figures against an implied 55%.
Chelsea take 3.00 before half time, the higher figure of the two, and Arsenal enter the final third 57.75 times a game against Chelsea’s 50.30.
This is the fifth fixture this weekend where the corners line and the two sides’ records disagree, and only the second where the over is the side to take — Manchester City vs Coventry is the other. Our corner predictions page covers all five.
K. Havertz Anytime Goalscorer — 0.63 per 90 Regressed, 3/2
Six goals in 786 minutes is 0.69 per 90 raw, which regresses to 0.63 and about 47% against an implied 40%.
Kai Havertz has 22 shots and nine on target from those minutes, and with Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus both suspended Arsenal’s forward options are thinner than usual — which is the case for him starting rather than rotating.
Chelsea have conceded 2.10 a game across their last twenty and 2.11 across their last nine Premier League matches, including 4-3 and 3-2 in their last two. Arsenal scored 1.60 a game at the Emirates. Our anytime goalscorer tips page explains why a rate off 786 minutes gets regressed rather than quoted whole.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 4/5 into a percentage and the market is saying 56%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 corners | 5/6 | 55% | 64% |
| M. Lewis-Skelly 2+ fouls drawn | 4/5 | 56% | 67% |
| K. Havertz anytime goalscorer | 3/2 | 40% | 47% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| W. Fofana to be carded | 7/4 | 36% | 37% |
| K. Havertz 3+ shots | Evens | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 3/4 | 57% | 55% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 cards | 5/6 | 55% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/11 | 58% | 52% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 5.7%.
Over 4.5 cards is the one to avoid despite the referee. Chris Kavanagh books 4.46 a game and Chelsea take 2.45 of their own — but Arsenal take 1.20 and see 0.70 in the first half, both the lowest figures in our Premier League data, and the fixture blends to 4.14 rather than the 4.8 the price wants.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Betting Tips
Three selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Myles Lewis-Skelly two or more fouls drawn — 4/5. Four of his last six at 2.40 per 90, the highest fouls-drawn rate among the players available. Chelsea take 2.45 cards a game against Arsenal’s 1.20.
Over 9.5 corners — 5/6. The two sides produce 10.85 a game against a line of 9.5, with Chelsea taking 3.00 before half time.
Kai Havertz anytime goalscorer — 3/2. Six goals in 786 minutes, regressing to 0.63 per 90 and about 47%. Both Gabriels are suspended and Chelsea have conceded 2.11 a game across their last nine league matches.
All three are in our bet builder and they fail for different reasons — Lewis-Skelly needs Chelsea fouling, the corners leg needs territory, Havertz needs Arsenal scoring.
João Pedro has the best record on the page and is not a selection. Fifty-eight shots, 36 fouls drawn and 11 goals in 1,396 minutes — but Chelsea are 18.0% on the market and Arsenal have conceded one goal in seven Premier League matches. Every attacking prop we published on a side priced below 25% lost this week.
We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
We are predicting 2-0 to Arsenal. Our model gives them 54%, the draw 24% and Chelsea 23%. The market says 56.8%, 25.2% and 18.0% — agreement inside five points on every outcome.
Both figures use Premier League matches only, and the difference between the two records is stark. Arsenal’s last seven at this level produced twelve goals scored and one conceded. Chelsea’s last nine produced twelve and nineteen.
Seven of Arsenal’s twenty matches were European fixtures, which is why their aggregate shows 0.50 conceded a game rather than the 0.14 their league record gives. They have conceded 0.30 a game at the Emirates.
Chelsea have won their opening two, 4-3 against Brighton and 3-2 at Fulham, which is a return of six points and nine goals conceded in two matches. Betfred are offering £50 in free bets with code BETFRED50 if you want one for it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Premier League betting tips all season
- Corner predictions across the round
- Anytime goalscorer tips this weekend
- Best Premier League betting sites compared
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.