Our Burnley vs Middlesbrough bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture our model and the market read very differently. Burnley won one of twenty and conceded 43 goals — seventeen of those matches in the Premier League.
Middlesbrough take 19.55 shots a game and 39.95 touches in the box.
Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Seventeen of Burnley’s were played in the Premier League. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Key Stats and Insights
- 1 win and 1 clean sheet in 20 for Burnley, with 43 goals conceded. Seventeen of those matches were Premier League fixtures.
- 39.95 touches in the box for Middlesbrough against Burnley’s 18.10, and 19.55 shots a game against 10.65 — the widest attacking gap on any page we have built.
- 8.05 corners a game for Middlesbrough against Burnley’s 3.80, with 3.80 in the first half against 1.60.
- 4 goals in 266 minutes for Will Lankshear, and 86, 90 and 90 in his last three. A rate that reads 1.35 per 90 and should not be published as one.
- Zian Flemming is moving to Ipswich — eight goals in 1,278 minutes, Burnley’s leading scorer, and the only attacking record they had.
- 62.1% possession for Middlesbrough, the highest figure in our Championship data.
- 11 players in our tables have no price, including James Ward-Prowse, Maxime Estève and Quilindschy Hartman.
- 0.90 fouls in the final third conceded by Burnley against Middlesbrough’s 2.60 — the lowest figure we hold.
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Bet Builder Tips
W. Lankshear Anytime Goalscorer — 4 Goals in 266 Minutes, 13/8
Four goals in 266 minutes, with 86, 90 and 90 in his last three. He joined from Tottenham for £10m this summer and has come straight into the side.
The raw rate is 1.35 per 90 and we are not publishing it. Four goals across three appearances is a hot streak rather than a rate — it would read as 74% to score, and a fifth goal or a blank would move that figure further than 266 minutes can bear.
Regressed the honest number is 60%, against an implied 38%. The discount is smaller than it would be for a scattered sample, because these 266 minutes are not a fragment of a season – they are his entire Middlesbrough career, and all three appearances were starts. Burnley conceded in nineteen of twenty matches and kept one clean sheet all season, so there is no defensive record here to stop him. Our anytime goalscorer tips page explains why a small sample gets pulled towards the average rather than taken at face value.
W. Lankshear 3+ Shots — 13 Shots in 266 Minutes, 8/13
Four, three and six shots in his three appearances — 4.40 per 90, the highest rate in either squad by a distance.
Three matches is not a sequence and we would not normally publish a shots line off one. It is here because the volume is real rather than inferred — thirteen shots is thirteen shots — and because the fixture supports it more strongly than almost any we have covered.
Middlesbrough take 19.55 shots a game against Burnley’s 10.65, and 39.95 touches in the box against 18.10. That is the widest attacking gap on any page we have built. They also take 8.05 corners a game against 3.80.
Both Teams to Score — 13 of Burnley’s Last 20, 12 of Middlesbrough’s
Burnley conceded in nineteen of twenty matches and kept one clean sheet all season, so the Middlesbrough half of this is close to a formality — they scored 1.67 a game away from home.
Burnley scoring is the question. Seven blanks in twenty and 1.11 a game at Turf Moor, from a side taking 10.65 shots and 18.10 touches in the box.
At 4/7 the price implies 64% and the two records average 62%. Level, and it is in the build because both Lankshear legs need Middlesbrough attacking — this is the one that also needs Burnley to turn up.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 13/8 into a percentage and the market is saying 38%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — goals per 90, or how often he has cleared a line — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| W. Lankshear anytime goalscorer | 13/8 | 38% | 60% |
| W. Lankshear 3+ shots | 8/13 | 62% | 67% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 4/7 | 64% | 62% |
| D. Strelec anytime goalscorer | 7/4 | 36% | 33% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 cards | 6/5 | 45% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/11 | 58% | 53% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.3% across the three match result outcomes.
And Lankshear’s 60% is a regressed figure, not his raw rate. Four goals in 266 minutes reads as 1.35 per 90 and would publish at 74%. We pull small samples towards a positional baseline before quoting them – but less far when the whole sample is recent starts, as his is. A rate off 1,278 minutes barely moves when the same treatment is applied — which is what tells you the first number needed it.
How the Three Fit Together
Three legs at 13/8, 8/13 and 4/7, which compounds to around 6/1.
Two are the same player, which we would normally avoid entirely. They are here because Lankshear is the only player on either side whose record and the fixture point the same way, and because a substitution ends both together rather than one failing while the other survives — the risk is single rather than doubled.
Both teams to score is the leg that does not depend on him. It needs Burnley to score, which they have managed in thirteen of twenty. Our bet builder tips page sets out why we usually spread across players, and this is the exception rather than a change of view.
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Middlesbrough. The market makes it 39.6% Middlesbrough, 27.7% the draw and 32.7% Burnley, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our model has Middlesbrough at 56% and Burnley at 21% — a sixteen-point gap on the away side.
Seventeen of Burnley’s twenty matches were Premier League fixtures from a relegation season: one win, one clean sheet, 43 conceded and 2.45 a game on the road. Our model reads those as a Championship record and they are not.
The honest version is that we do not yet know the right discount for a relegated side. Our raw figure is 56%, the market says 39.6%, and until we have a season of tracked results there is no way to say which is closer. Coral are offering £30 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.