Our Everton vs Man United bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from the only fixture this weekend where neither side’s figures need adjusting, and we have three best bets ranging from 8/11 to 7/4.
Both twenties are Premier League matches. Manchester United beat Ipswich 5-2 last time out and lost 0-2 at Hull the week before.
Everton vs Manchester United
Everton
- D1-1at Bournemouth29 Aug
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 Aug
- L0-1at Tottenham Hotspur24 May
- L1-3Sunderland17 May
- D2-2at Crystal Palace10 May
- D3-3Manchester City4 May
Manchester United
- W5-2Ipswich Town30 Aug
- L0-2at Hull City22 Aug
- W3-0at Brighton24 May
- W3-2Nottingham Forest17 May
- D0-0at Sunderland9 May
- W3-2Liverpool3 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches, all of them Premier League fixtures for both sides. Prices are bet365, checked 3 September.
Everton vs Man United Key Stats and Insights
- 26 goals in 10 home matches for Manchester United at 2.60 a game, against 14 in ten away at 1.40.
- Both twenties are all Premier League, the only fixture this weekend where neither side’s figures need a European or Championship adjustment.
- 18.85 tackles a game for Everton, the highest tackling figure in our Premier League data, alongside 27.75 clearances.
- 9 yellows in 1,693 minutes for James Garner, and 69 tackles — the highest total in either squad.
- 4.63 cards a game for John Brooks across 51 Premier League matches, against a career figure of 3.27.
- 40 shots in 1,361 minutes for Matheus Cunha, with 26 fouls drawn alongside them.
- 43.95% possession for Everton, and they still take 11.60 shots a game to Manchester United’s 16.45.
Everton vs Man United Bet Builder Tips
M. Cunha 3+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 10/11
2, 3, 4, 5, 3 and 2 in his last six, at 2.65 per 90 across 1,361 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 52%.
Matheus Cunha has had at least two shots in every one of those six, so the floor is high rather than the average being flattered by one big return. Forty shots across a full season of minutes, with 26 fouls drawn alongside them.
Manchester United take 16.45 shots a game against Everton’s 11.60 and 28.05 touches in the box against 23.15. Everton hold 43.95% of the ball, the lowest figure among this weekend’s home sides, which is the shape a shots line wants. Our shots on target prop bets page covers the same market across the round.
K. Mainoo 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3 of His Last 6, 7/4
2, 0, 3, 1, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 1.22 per 90 across 1,544 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 36%.
Kobbie Mainoo has 21 fouls drawn and 33 tackles from a full season, so the rate is not a short run.
Everton make 18.85 tackles a game, the highest tackling figure in our Premier League data, and commit 11.20 fouls to Manchester United’s 9.80. A midfielder receiving the ball against a side that presses that hard is where this market lives, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains why the opposition matters as much as the player.
J. Garner to be Carded — 0.44 per 90 Regressed, 3/1
Nine yellows in 1,693 minutes is 0.48 per 90, which regresses to 0.44 and about 35% against an implied 25%.
That is the largest card sample on this page and the regression barely moves it, which is what a real rate looks like rather than a hot streak. James Garner also has 69 tackles — the highest total in either squad — and 26 fouls, the highest at Everton.
John Brooks books 4.63 a game across 51 Premier League matches against a career figure of 3.27, and Everton take 1.85 cards of their own. Thirty-five per cent sits below the 40% we require of a Best Bet, which is why this is a build leg and a pointer rather than one of our three singles.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 7/4 into a percentage and the market is saying 36%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cunha 3+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 67% |
| K. Mainoo 2+ fouls drawn | 7/4 | 36% | 50% |
| J. Garner to be carded | 3/1 | 25% | 35% |
| A. Heaven 1+ foul drawn | 8/11 | 58% | 67% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 cards | 11/10 | 48% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/11 | 58% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | 4/7 | 64% | 56-65% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.5%.
Both teams to score is shown as a range. The two sides’ counts give 65% and the expected-goals method gives 56%, against a price implying 64%. One reading makes it level and the other makes it a small lay, which is too wide to bet into either way.
Everton vs Man United Betting Tips
Three selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Matheus Cunha three or more shots — 10/11. Four of his last six and at least two in all six, from 40 shots across 1,361 minutes. Manchester United take 16.45 shots a game to Everton’s 11.60.
Ayden Heaven one or more fouls drawn — 8/11. Fouled in four of his last six at 1.42 per 90. Four hundred and forty-five minutes is the caution, and Everton’s 18.85 tackles a game is what makes a low line attractive.
Kobbie Mainoo two or more fouls drawn — 7/4. Three of his last six from a full season of minutes, with 21 fouls drawn and 33 tackles behind it.
Our bet builder uses Cunha, Mainoo and James Garner to be carded. Garner is not one of the three singles — he regresses to 35%, below the 40% we require — but 9 yellows in 1,693 minutes is the largest card sample on the page and he adds a third market to a build that would otherwise lean on fouls drawn twice.
We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Everton vs Man United Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Manchester United. Our model gives them 42%, the draw 25% and Everton 33%. The market says 44.7%, 26.8% and 28.5% — agreement inside five points on every outcome.
This is the only fixture this weekend where neither side’s figures need adjusting. Both twenties are Premier League matches, with no European ties and no Championship season behind them, which makes the model’s agreement with the market worth more here than on the pages where one column needed a discount.
Manchester United scored 26 goals in ten home matches at 2.60 a game and 14 in ten away at 1.40 — a split of more than a goal a match. They beat Ipswich 5-2 last time out and lost 0-2 at Hull the week before.
Everton have drawn three of their last six and hold 43.95% of the ball, the lowest figure among this weekend’s home sides. Coral are offering £30 in free bets when you stake £5 if you want one for it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Premier League betting tips all season
- Players to be booked this weekend
- Tackles and fouls prop bets across the round
- Best £5 deposit betting sites compared
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.