Last Updated on 04/05/2026 by Andy Clark
Tottenham Hotspur’s relegation odds have dropped from 49.5% to 20.73% over the past three weeks, with Sunday’s dramatic 3-1 win at Aston Villa lifting Roberto De Zerbi’s side out of the bottom three.
While the Opta supercomputer’s latest probability represents a major improvement on the coin-flip odds quoted three weeks ago, Spurs aren’t yet safe — a 1-in-5 chance of relegation still looms over their three remaining fixtures.
For a club that hasn’t been relegated since 1977 and has been ever-present in the Premier League since its 1992 formation, the past month has been the most dramatic late-season turnaround of the modern era. Three weeks ago, Tottenham were a 49.5% pick to drop. Today, the supercomputer has them at 20.73% — better, but with three matches still to play, the threat of Championship football hasn’t entirely been ruled out.
Tottenham Relegation Odds — Latest Numbers
| Source | Tottenham relegation probability |
|---|---|
| Opta supercomputer (latest) | 20.73% |
| Best bookmaker odds (to be relegated) | 11/4 |
| Implied market probability | ~26.7% |
| Opta probability three weeks ago | 49.5% |
| Opta probability after Wolves win (1 week ago) | 58.57% |
Source: Opta supercomputer simulations, bookmaker odds correct as of 4 May 2026
The market is slightly more cautious than the model — bookmaker prices of 11/4 imply roughly a 27% chance of Tottenham going down, against Opta’s 20.73%. Both metrics agree this is no longer a coin flip but neither rules out relegation entirely. With three games still to play, the survival narrative isn’t fully written.
How Did Tottenham Climb Out?
The escape came in the space of eight days. Two wins, both away from home, both against direct relegation rivals or opponents who’d been beating them.
Sunday 27 April: Tottenham 1-0 Wolves (away) — Spurs’ first Premier League win of 2026 ended a 15-game winless run dating back to December. Despite the result, Opta’s relegation probability barely moved (from 58.33% to 58.57%) because West Ham had also won that weekend.
Sunday 4 May: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (away) — the result that changed everything. Spurs travelled to Villa Park 18th in the table and two points adrift of West Ham, who had just lost 3-0 at Brentford on the Saturday. A win would lift Tottenham out of the bottom three; anything less would deepen the crisis. The 2-1 victory at a venue where Villa had beaten Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United this season was the most important result of De Zerbi’s tenure.
Combined with West Ham’s collapse at Brentford, the weekend’s swing was enormous. Tottenham jumped from 18th to 15th in a single weekend, with the relegation probability dropping from 58.57% pre-weekend to 20.73% on Monday morning. That’s still not statistical safety — a 1-in-5 chance is real and material — but it represents the biggest single-weekend movement in any Premier League team’s relegation odds this season.
| Bookmaker | Odds (Tottenham to be relegated) |
|---|---|
| bet365 | 11/4 |
| Betfred | 11/4 |
| Ladbrokes | 11/4 |
| BoyleSports | 5/2 |
| William Hill | 11/4 |
Odds correct as of 4 May 2026. Prices subject to change as fixtures play out.
At 11/4, the market implies roughly a 27% chance of Tottenham going down — slightly more cautious than Opta’s 20.73%. The gap between market and model isn’t large, but the consistency of 11/4 across major bookmakers suggests this is where serious money is settling.
For comparison, West Ham are heavily odds-on to be relegated at around 3/10 with bet365 (implying 77%), while Nottingham Forest are out at 16/1 (around 6%). The market clearly views the third relegation place as a two-horse race between the Hammers and Spurs, with West Ham as the heavy favourite.
A win against Crystal Palace next weekend would likely see Tottenham’s relegation odds drift to 8/1 or longer, effectively confirming survival. A defeat — especially combined with West Ham winning at Manchester United — and the picture becomes meaningfully more uncertain again.
Tottenham Have Not Been Relegated Since 1977
The historical context for what nearly happened this season is striking. Tottenham have not played outside the top flight of English football since the 1977/78 season — a 48-year run that’s only beaten by a handful of clubs in the modern era.
Spurs have been ever-present in the Premier League since its formation in August 1992. Across 33 completed Premier League seasons, the club has never finished lower than 14th. The closest they came to relegation in the Premier League era was the 2003/04 season, when they finished 14th with 45 points, eight points clear of the drop zone.
This season’s lowest position of 18th — held by Tottenham as recently as last week — would have ended that record. The Villa Park result has saved a piece of football history.
How Tottenham Got into This Mess
The scale of this season’s decline doesn’t disappear because survival now looks confirmed. Spurs have taken just 36 points from 35 Premier League games — projected to finish on roughly 41 points, the worst Tottenham points total of the Premier League era.
Three managers in one season — Ange Postecoglou sacked early, Thomas Frank’s interim spell ending in further decline, then Igor Tudor’s brief tenure giving way to Roberto De Zerbi. A wage bill that wasn’t matched by results. A goal difference well into negative territory. And a fanbase that’s spent most of the spring contemplating second-tier football for the first time in two generations.
The summer transfer window will need to address structural weaknesses in central defence, defensive midfield, and goalscoring depth. Squad rebuild work begins from a position of safety rather than disaster — but the gap between this season’s points total and a top-half finish is enormous.
Are Tottenham Safe Now?
Not quite. The Opta supercomputer’s 20.73% probability still represents a 1-in-5 chance of relegation — meaningful but no longer the central case. Mathematically, Tottenham can still go down if they lose all three remaining games AND results break against them elsewhere.
To be specifically relegated:
- Tottenham would need to drop points across their three remaining matches against Crystal Palace, Brighton and Burnley
- AND West Ham would need to win all three of their remaining matches against Manchester United, Leeds and Nottingham Forest, OR Forest would need to overhaul Tottenham’s points buffer with a strong finish
- AND head-to-head and goal difference calculations would need to break Tottenham’s way
This combination plays out in roughly 1 in every 5 simulations — not impossible, but Tottenham are now strong favourites to stay up. The market and the model agree on the central case; the disagreement is only on how comfortable that central case actually is.
The next concrete confirmation comes next weekend. A win against Crystal Palace at home would make Premier League survival mathematically near-certain regardless of other results. A defeat — especially combined with West Ham winning at Manchester United on the same weekend — and the relegation conversation reignites for the final two matchdays.
Tottenham Relegation FAQs
What are Tottenham’s chances of relegation now?
The Opta supercomputer’s latest simulation puts Tottenham at 20.73% probability of relegation. Bookmaker prices imply roughly 27%. Both numbers represent a major improvement on the 49.5% probability quoted three weeks ago, but neither rules out relegation entirely with three matches remaining.
When were Tottenham last relegated from the top flight?
Tottenham were last relegated from the top flight in the 1976/77 season, when they finished 22nd in the old First Division. They returned to the top flight after one season in the Second Division and have been ever-present in the top tier ever since — including all 33 completed seasons of the Premier League.
What do Tottenham need to do to be definitely safe?
A win against Crystal Palace at home next weekend would make Premier League survival mathematically near-certain regardless of other results. A draw might still be enough depending on West Ham’s result against Manchester United on the same weekend.
Who is favourite to be relegated alongside Wolves and Burnley?
West Ham United. The Opta supercomputer puts the Hammers at 76.77% probability of relegation following their 3-0 home defeat to Brentford, with bookmakers similarly aligned at around 3/10 (77% implied). Tottenham at 20.73% is the second-most-likely candidate, with Nottingham Forest at 2.36% and both Leeds (0.11%) and Crystal Palace (0.03%) effectively safe.
Who is the Tottenham manager?
Roberto De Zerbi has been Tottenham manager since the post-Igor Tudor period earlier this year. He is Tottenham’s third manager of the 2025/26 season after Ange Postecoglou’s early-season sacking and Tudor’s interim role. The Italian’s appointment came with the club still in serious relegation trouble.
Will Tottenham be in the Premier League next season?
The combination of Opta’s 20.73% relegation probability, three remaining fixtures including two against teams with limited motivation, and a points buffer above the relegation zone makes Tottenham strong favourites — though not certainties — to play Premier League football in 2026/27. The bookmakers price survival at around 1/3.
What does the Premier League relegation cost?
Premier League relegation typically costs a club between £100 million and £250 million in lost broadcast revenue, commercial deals and matchday income compared to a season in the Premier League. Parachute payments cushion some of the immediate impact (£40-50 million in year one of relegation) but cannot replace top-flight revenue. For a club of Tottenham’s wage structure, relegation would have triggered immediate squad sales and major financial restructuring.
When does the 2025/26 Premier League season finish?
The final round of Premier League fixtures takes place on Sunday, 25 May 2026. Tottenham’s last match is a home fixture against Everton.
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Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.
