Our 22/1 four-fold bet builder with bet365 for the USA vs Paraguay Group D opener at SoFi Stadium combines USA to win at 9/10, Under 2.5 Goals at 11/20, Christian Pulisic anytime goalscorer at 21/10, and Omar Alderete to be carded at 6/4.
USA vs Paraguay Match Preview
USA welcome Paraguay to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for their Group D opener, and while the hosts carry the weight of a nation’s expectations, this one could be tighter than most Americans want to admit.
Pochettino’s men have had a rough 2026 on paper. Belgium put five past them, Portugal shut them out, Germany beat them last week. The only win this calendar year was a 3-2 scrape against Senegal at the end of May. Not exactly the form you want heading into a home World Cup, but here’s the thing, friendlies against elite European nations are a completely different animal to grinding through a tournament group. USA know that. Pochettino knows that. The squad is deeper and more talented than any previous American generation and SoFi Stadium on a World Cup night is going to be an entirely different atmosphere to a March international.
Paraguay, though, are not coming here as tourists. People forget this side beat Brazil and Argentina during qualifying. Alfaro has built something genuinely difficult to play against, a compact defensive unit that kept 10 clean sheets in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers and conceded just 10 goals against the best South America has to offer. The bad news for them is they cannot score to save their lives. Just 0.78 goals per game in qualifying, the worst average of any automatic qualifier from South America. And now they are probably without Julio Enciso, their most creative player, after a knee scare in the warm-up win over Nicaragua. That is a massive blow.
History is firmly on USA’s side too. Five wins from nine meetings, and Paraguay have never beaten a host nation at a World Cup. Ever. They have also won just once in eight World Cup opening games. The last time these two met was a friendly in November 2025 at Subaru Park, USA won 2-1 through Reyna and Balogun.
Get a Free Bet for USA vs Paraguay
USA vs Paraguay Bet Builder (22/1 with bet365)
| Bet Builder Leg | Odds |
|---|---|
| USA to Win | 9/10 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 11/20 |
| Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer | 21/10 |
| Omar Alderete to be Carded | 6/4 |
| Combined four-fold (bet365) | 22/1 |
USA vs Paraguay Key Stats
- Paraguay averaged just 0.78 goals per game across CONMEBOL qualifying — the worst of any automatic qualifier from South America
- Paraguay kept 10 clean sheets in 18 qualifying matches and conceded just 10 goals
- Six of Paraguay’s seven qualifying wins came by a single goal margin
- All four of Paraguay’s qualifying defeats were 1-0 scorelines
- Paraguay averaged just 37.5% possession across qualifying — lowest in CONMEBOL
- USA have scored in six of their last seven home matches (13 goals in that run)
- Paraguay have lost their last three meetings with USA by an aggregate of 4-1
- Paraguay have never beaten a host nation at a World Cup
- Paraguay have won just once in eight World Cup opening matches
- Christian Pulisic has 33 goals in 86 caps for USA
- Pulisic ended a five-month international goal drought vs Senegal on 31 May 2026
- Omar Alderete was sent off in the most recent USA vs Paraguay meeting (November 2025 friendly)
- USA won that meeting 2-1 through goals from Reyna and Balogun
USA vs Paraguay Team News
Mauricio Pochettino has a settled USA squad anchored by Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Folarin Balogun (Monaco) and Tyler Adams (Bournemouth). Yunus Musah, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna and Antonee Robinson all start regularly for Premier League / Serie A clubs. The squad depth is the strongest in USA’s modern history.
Paraguay’s biggest concern is Julio Enciso — the Brighton attacker is their most creative player and picked up a knee scare in the warm-up win over Nicaragua. He’s unlikely to feature. Without Enciso, Paraguay’s attacking threat is meaningfully reduced. Centre-back Omar Alderete and goalkeeper Roberto Fernández carry significant defensive responsibility for a side built on a low block.
USA to Win @ 1.90
SoFi Stadium is going to be rocking, and USA have scored in six of their last seven home matches, 13 goals in that run. Yes the friendly form has been shaky, but Pochettino has a genuinely talented squad and Paraguay have lost their last three meetings with USA by an aggregate of 4-1. Without Enciso pulling strings in attack, it is hard to see where Los Guaranies hurt them. Home advantage, crowd noise and quality on the ball should be enough to get the job done.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.55
This one practically picks itself. Paraguay averaged 0.78 goals per game in qualifying, the worst number of any automatic CONMEBOL qualifier. Six of their seven qualifying wins came by a single goal, and all four of their defeats were 1-0. Alfaro’s side averaged just 37.5% possession throughout the South American campaign, the lowest of any nation in the section. They are going to sit deep, stay compact and make USA work for everything. A nervy one-goal game feels like the most likely outcome here.
Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.10
The USA’s poster boy heads into the tournament with 33 goals in 86 caps and ended a five-month international scoring drought against Senegal on May 31st. Pochettino plays him in a free role just behind the striker with freedom to drift centrally, which is exactly the kind of movement that can punish a deep defensive block when gaps open up on the transition. He scored at the 2022 World Cup and he will want to make a statement in front of a home crowd. At 3.10 that price looks generous.
Omar Alderete to be Carded @ 2.50
This one has a bit of history behind it. The rugged Paraguay centre-back was actually sent off the last time these two met, in the November 2025 friendly, when Paraguay lost 2-1. He carries huge defensive responsibility for a side that will be under sustained pressure, and if USA get in behind early, Alderete is exactly the type of no-nonsense defender who could pick up a booking trying to keep things together. Worth adding to the builder at a decent price.
USA vs Paraguay Bet Builder Summary
| Bet Builder Leg | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| USA to Win | 9/10 | bet365 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 11/20 | bet365 |
| Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer | 21/10 | bet365 |
| Omar Alderete to be Carded | 6/4 | bet365 |
| Combined four-fold | ~22/1 | bet365 |
Final Prediction
Everything points to a tight one. Paraguay will defend deep, make it ugly and give very little away, but the Enciso injury takes away their best chance of hurting USA on the break. Pulisic, Balogun and the noise of a packed SoFi Stadium should edge it. One goal, three points, and a nation breathes out.
More World Cup 2026 and Betting Tips
- World Cup 2026 Hub — odds, tips and predictions for the tournament
- World Cup Betting Tips — match-by-match coverage across the tournament
- Canada vs Bosnia Bet Builder Tips — Group B match earlier in the tournament
- Haiti vs Scotland Bet Builder Tips — Scotland’s first World Cup match in 28 years
- Brazil vs Morocco Bet Builder Tips — Saturday 13 June, Group C
- World Cup 2026 Top Goalscorer Tips — Golden Boot market analysis
- World Cup 2026 Free Bets Hub — every UK welcome offer compared
- World Cup 2026 Fixtures — full schedule and UK kick-off times
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing (10 June 2026). Verify at bet365 before placing. New customers only at each bookmaker. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org | GamCare.org.uk
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.