Prediction Markets UK Guide 2026

What Is a Prediction Market and Are They Legal in the UK?

A prediction market is a platform where users buy and sell yes-or-no contracts on real-world outcomes — for example, “Will England win the World Cup?” — with prices set by what other users are willing to back, rather than by a bookmaker.

In the UK, prediction markets are legal but require a Gambling Commission licence: the UK Gambling Commission classifies them as “Betting Intermediaries” under the same framework that covers betting exchanges. International platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi do not hold UK licences and are not available to UK retail users. The UK does have regulated alternatives, including betting exchanges (which have offered prediction-market-style trading since 2000) and the new EasyBet Predictions platform launched in 2026.

This guide covers what prediction markets are, why they have become popular, the legal status of the major platforms in the UK, the UK-regulated options, and how prediction markets compare to traditional bookmakers.

What Is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a marketplace for trading event-based contracts. Users buy and sell yes-or-no contracts on real-world outcomes — political events, sports results, financial trends, or breaking news. Each contract typically settles at $1.00 (or £1.00) if the predicted outcome happens, and at $0 if it doesn’t. The price in between reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability — a contract priced at 70p represents the market thinking there is roughly a 70% chance the outcome will occur.

The mechanic is fundamentally different from a traditional bookmaker. With a bookmaker, you bet against the house: a trading team sets odds that include a built-in margin (the “overround”), and the bookmaker profits on average regardless of which way the market moves. With a prediction market, there is no house. Users bet against each other, and the price moves based on demand from both sides of the contract.

This makes prediction markets functionally very similar to betting exchanges, which have operated in the UK since 2000. The UK Gambling Commission has explicitly noted this in its official position on prediction markets: “Whilst the presentation of prediction markets may differ, their core aspects are akin to what in the UK would be described as a ‘Betting Exchange’.”

The key difference is mostly presentation. Prediction markets typically frame contracts in plain-English yes/no terms (“Will X happen?”) and have proven appealing to a different audience than traditional sports-focused exchanges — particularly users interested in political, economic and event-based markets rather than sports betting.

Why Prediction Markets Have Become Popular

Prediction markets exploded into the mainstream during the 2024 US presidential election, when Polymarket’s prices reflected the eventual result before major polling firms called it. The platform processed over $3.5 billion in trading volume during the election cycle, prompting widespread media coverage in the financial press and beyond.

The broader appeal is twofold. First, the prices on liquid prediction markets are often more accurate than expert forecasts, because they reflect the aggregate judgement of many participants with real money on the line — a principle academic researchers have studied for decades. Second, the format is intuitive: yes-or-no contracts on plain-English questions are easier for newer users to engage with than traditional bookmaker odds or financial derivatives.

In the US, prediction markets have moved from fringe to mainstream financial product. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved Kalshi as a regulated exchange, and Polymarket completed a CFTC-regulated acquisition in 2025 that brought parts of its US business under federal oversight. The UK is now beginning to see equivalent products launch.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?

Prediction markets are legal in the UK, but operators need the right licence. The UK Gambling Commission position is that prediction markets fall within the existing “Betting Intermediary” definition under the Gambling Act 2005 — the same category that covers betting exchanges. Any operator wishing to offer prediction-market services to UK consumers needs to be licensed by the Gambling Commission (or, for some products, the Financial Conduct Authority for spread-betting-style instruments).

The Gambling Commission has issued public guidance noting that prediction markets are not a new category of product in regulatory terms. Their position is straightforward: “The betting intermediary gambling licence exists to cover such business models.”

This means UK users have two routes to access prediction-market-style trading legally:

Through a UK-licensed prediction market platform (like EasyBet Predictions)
Through an existing UK-licensed betting exchange (like Smarkets or Betfair Exchange), which functionally offer the same model

What is not legal — or more precisely, not available — is using overseas prediction markets that do not hold UK licences. Polymarket and Kalshi both fall into this category.

Is Polymarket Available in the UK?

Polymarket is not available to UK users. The platform geoblocks UK IP addresses at the platform level. UK users cannot register, deposit or trade on Polymarket through normal access.

Polymarket does not hold a UK Gambling Commission licence and has not, to public knowledge, applied for one. The Gambling Commission has warned unlicensed operators to “take steps to ensure they are not targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain.” Polymarket’s geoblock is a compliance response to that regulatory position.

The legal status of Polymarket-style contracts under UK law is technically contested. Some legal scholars have noted that a USDC-settled binary prediction contract could be characterised as a financial derivative regulated by the FCA under UK-MiFID, rather than as a gambling product under the Gambling Act. However, the FCA has banned the sale of binary options to UK retail consumers since 2019, which would catch Polymarket contracts under a derivatives framing. No UK court has ruled definitively on which framework applies, but the practical reality is the same either way: the platform is not available to UK users.

Some users access Polymarket through VPNs and non-custodial wallets, but this violates Polymarket’s terms of service, removes all consumer protection, and raises tax complications. HMRC treats USDC and crypto gains as capital assets subject to Capital Gains Tax, not as tax-exempt gambling winnings. The combination of contractual, regulatory and tax exposure makes VPN access genuinely risky and not recommended.

Is Kalshi Available in the UK?

Kalshi is not available to UK retail users. Kalshi is a US-based prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market — a US federal financial regulator, not a UK one. The platform serves US residents only and does not offer accounts to UK consumers.

UK users with professional brokerage accounts can sometimes access prediction-market-style instruments through brokers like Interactive Brokers, which provides routing to forecast contracts on ForecastEx and other regulated US exchanges. This is a professional financial product rather than a consumer betting offering, and it is not a retail prediction market experience in the way Kalshi presents itself to US users.

For UK consumers wanting the Kalshi-style experience — yes/no contracts on event outcomes in a polished, regulated environment — the practical answer is to use a UK-regulated alternative, not to attempt access to Kalshi itself.

UK-Regulated Alternatives to Polymarket and Kalshi

Several UK-regulated platforms offer functionally similar products to Polymarket and Kalshi. None replicate the brand or marketing of those platforms exactly, but each provides the underlying mechanic — trading against other users at market-determined prices on yes/no event outcomes.

EasyBet Predictions

EasyBet Predictions launched in 2026 as the first UK platform explicitly marketed and presented as a prediction market for consumers. It is a joint venture between Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s EasyBet and Matchbook, with Matchbook providing the underlying exchange technology. The platform offers plain-English yes/no contracts on sports, political and event outcomes, with prices set by user demand.

EasyBet Predictions describes itself as the UK’s first consumer-facing prediction market backed by a UK-regulated gambling operator. That positioning is genuine in marketing terms — UK betting exchanges have offered the same underlying functionality for over two decades, but EasyBet is the first product designed and branded specifically as a “prediction market” for UK consumers.

The current EasyBet Predictions welcome offer is specifically built around the 2026 World Cup outright market. New customers using bonus code TUBE who place a YES bet on any team to win the World Cup get their stake back as a Free Predictions Bet up to £30 if the team does not win the tournament. The promotional window closes on 15 June 2026. For full terms and how to claim, see our EasyBet Predictions World Cup offer page.

Smarkets

Smarkets is a UK-licensed betting exchange that has offered political and event markets alongside sports for over a decade. The platform’s pricing model is identical in mechanics to a prediction market — users trade against each other at market-determined prices, with no bookmaker margin built in. Smarkets has been a notable presence in UK political betting markets and offers some of the lowest commission rates of any UK exchange.

Betfair Exchange

Betfair Exchange is the longest-established and largest UK betting exchange, operating under a Gambling Commission licence since 2000. It is the deepest pool of liquidity for sports event trading in the UK, and offers a wide range of political, novelty and special markets that function as prediction markets in all but branding. The Exchange has hosted UK political betting on every major election since 2001.

Spreadex

Spreadex offers spread betting on event outcomes under FCA authorisation, including political and sports events. Spread betting is a different mechanic from binary prediction-market contracts — winnings and losses scale with how right or wrong the bet is, and losses can exceed your stake — but it serves the same broad audience interested in trading on event outcomes. For users specifically wanting prediction-market-style binary contracts, an exchange or EasyBet Predictions is the closer fit; for users comfortable with spread betting, Spreadex covers event markets including elections.

IG Index

IG Index offers spread betting on political and event outcomes alongside its main financial spread betting business. Like Spreadex, it is FCA-regulated and operates under a financial-services framework rather than a gambling framework. Election spread betting on IG Index has been an option for UK punters since the 1990s.

How Prediction Markets Compare to Traditional Bookmakers

Factor	Prediction Market	Traditional Bookmaker
Who sets the price	Other users / the market	Bookmaker’s trading team
Built-in margin	Minimal or none	Yes (overround)
Best for	Markets where collective wisdom prices accurately	Events with strong sharp-pricing teams
Liquidity	Variable — best on heavily traded markets	Generally consistent across listed markets
Account experience	Trading-focused interface	Sportsbook-focused interface
Best customer offer types	Refund-on-loss / commission-free trading	Free bets / enhanced odds / boosted prices

The trade-off comes down to where you think the value is. On a heavily-traded market — a major election, the outright winner of a World Cup, a high-profile sports outcome — prediction market and exchange prices are often tighter than a bookmaker’s because there is no margin built in. On a thinly-traded market, a bookmaker may offer better liquidity even if the price carries a margin. For most punters, the practical answer is to use both: a bookmaker for everyday sports betting, and an exchange or prediction market for major events where price matters more than convenience.

Should UK Punters Use Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets suit punters who:

Are comfortable with a trading-style interface rather than a traditional sportsbook
Want to bet on yes/no event outcomes — politics, sports outrights, breaking news, novelty markets
Care about getting the best price and are willing to accept lower liquidity in exchange for tighter margins
Want to take both sides of a market (back YES or back NO) rather than just one direction

They are less suited to punters who:

Want familiar match-betting markets (1X2, both teams to score, handicap) on every football fixture
Prefer the comfort of fixed odds taken at the moment of bet placement
Want the in-play match coverage, live streaming and bet builder features typical of major bookmakers
Are claiming a welcome offer specifically structured around traditional sportsbook bets

For most UK punters, prediction markets are a useful addition rather than a replacement. They sit alongside traditional bookmaker accounts as a tool for specific bet types — outright markets, political events, novelty questions — rather than as the primary betting product.

Prediction Markets UK FAQs

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a platform where users trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the market’s collective estimate of the probability of an outcome happening, and contracts settle at full value if the outcome occurs or at zero if it doesn’t.

Are prediction markets legal in the UK?

Yes. Prediction markets are legal in the UK but operators require a Gambling Commission licence (under the “Betting Intermediary” definition) or, for spread-betting-style products, FCA authorisation. UK-regulated platforms include EasyBet Predictions, Smarkets, Betfair Exchange and Spreadex.

Can UK users access Polymarket?

No. Polymarket geoblocks UK IP addresses and does not hold a UK Gambling Commission licence. Some users access it via VPN, but this violates Polymarket’s terms, removes consumer protection, and creates tax exposure under HMRC’s cryptoasset rules. The practical and safe answer is to use a UK-regulated alternative.

Can UK users access Kalshi?

No. Kalshi is a US-only platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and does not offer accounts to UK retail consumers. Professional brokerage accounts may provide indirect routes to similar contracts, but this is a financial-services product, not a retail prediction market experience.

What is the best UK alternative to Polymarket?

Three UK-regulated platforms offer functionally similar products to Polymarket: EasyBet Predictions (the newest, marketed specifically as a prediction market), Smarkets (a UK-licensed betting exchange with strong political-market history) and Betfair Exchange (the largest UK exchange with the deepest liquidity). All three are UK Gambling Commission-licensed.

How do prediction markets differ from a betting exchange?

Mechanically, the two are very similar — both involve trading against other users at market-determined prices. The differences are mostly in presentation and audience: prediction markets typically use plain-English yes/no questions and market themselves to a broader audience interested in event outcomes, while exchanges are traditionally sports-focused with more complex order-book interfaces.

Are prediction market winnings tax-free in the UK?

Winnings from UK-licensed gambling products — including UK-licensed prediction markets and betting exchanges — are not subject to UK income tax under the standard gambling tax exemption. Winnings from unlicensed overseas platforms (including USDC-denominated contracts on platforms like Polymarket) may be treated as capital gains by HMRC and are not protected by the same exemption.

Will Polymarket launch in the UK?

There is no public indication that Polymarket has applied for, or intends to apply for, a UK Gambling Commission licence. The UK regulatory position would require Polymarket to obtain such a licence to operate in the UK legally, which would involve significant changes to its current business model. Until that happens, UK users will need to rely on UK-regulated alternatives.

How do prediction-market prices compare to bookmaker odds?

On heavily-traded markets, prediction-market prices typically offer slightly better value than bookmaker odds because they don’t include the bookmaker’s built-in margin. On thinly-traded markets, the lack of liquidity can mean prices move more sharply and execution can be poorer than at a bookmaker.

What is the EasyBet Predictions welcome offer?

The current EasyBet Predictions welcome offer is built around the 2026 World Cup. New customers using bonus code TUBE who place a YES bet on any team to win the World Cup get their stake back as a Free Predictions Bet up to £30 if the team does not win the tournament. The promotional window closes on 15 June 2026. See our EasyBet Predictions World Cup offer page for full terms.