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Birmingham vs Bristol City Prediction
We are predicting a 1-0 Birmingham win. Our model gives them 40%, the draw 35% and Bristol City 25%, from expected goals of 1.09 to 0.80. Over 2.5 goals comes out at just 29%, and a goalless draw at 17% — the highest single scoreline probability we have produced.
Birmingham have gone over 3.5 goals in one match out of twenty, a rate of 5% and the lowest of any side we have covered. They concede 0.90 a game at home and carry an expected goals against of 0.93, comfortably the best defensive figure in this fixture.
Bristol City arrive having lost ten of their last twenty and failed to score in eight. Their home record is worse than their away one — ten scored and eighteen conceded in ten at Ashton Gate — which is unusual enough to be worth knowing.
The draw at 35% matches our highest of the season, alongside Nottingham Forest against Leeds. Both have the same shape: two low-scoring sides, one defensively sound, and neither able to finish.
Birmingham vs Bristol City Betting Tips
1. Under 3.5 Goals. This has landed in 19 of Birmingham’s last 20 matches, the highest hit rate on any of our pages. They have gone over that line once all season.
2. Under 2.5 Goals. Thirteen of Birmingham’s last 20 and eleven of Bristol’s. Our model makes it 71%, with a goalless draw alone at 17%.
3. Birmingham 5+ Team Corners. Thirteen of their last 20. They take 6.55 corners a game to Bristol’s 4.50, and 3.55 of them before half time against 2.15 — the widest corner gap on any page this week.
Birmingham vs Bristol City Stats
| Market | Birmingham | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.60 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 8-6-6 | 6-4-10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 6 of 20 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots inside the box | 9.00 | 5.65 |
| Shots outside the box | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| Touches in the box | 24.10 | 16.20 |
| Corners per game | 6.55 | 4.50 |
| Expected goals against | 0.93 | 1.60 |
Figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Birmingham vs Bristol City Key Stats
- 1 of 20 — Birmingham matches to go over 3.5 goals, the lowest rate we have recorded
- 19 of 20 — Birmingham matches to finish under 3.5 goals
- 45% of Bristol City’s shots come from outside the box, against Birmingham’s 31%
- 16.20 touches in the box a game for Bristol City, the lowest figure in our data
- 10 defeats in 20 for Bristol City, and eight matches without scoring
- 18 goals conceded in 10 home games by Bristol City, worse than their away record
- 6.55 corners a game for Birmingham against Bristol’s 4.50, the widest gap on any page this week
Birmingham vs Bristol City Team News
Birmingham are without Marc Leonard, out until September with a hamstring injury, and have no other absentees listed.
Bristol City are missing Adam Murphy and Cameron Pring, both with ankle injuries and neither carrying a return date, while Adam Randell is suspended.
Birmingham vs Bristol City Corners and Cards
Corners are the clearest edge on the page. Birmingham take 6.55 a game to Bristol’s 4.50, and the first-half split is wider in proportion — 3.55 against 2.15. They also take 25.00 throw-ins a game to Bristol’s 18.25, which is the same story about territory told another way.
The card market needs the referee, who has not been appointed. On the two sides’ own records the combined figure is 3.77, which puts over 2.5 cards at 73% and over 3.5 at 52%.
One oddity worth noting. Bristol collect more cards than Birmingham — 2.10 a game against 1.60 — while committing fewer fouls, 9.20 against 11.85. That is unusual, and it suggests the fouls they do commit are the kind that get punished.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
