Our Portsmouth vs Derby bet builder tips, predictions and best bets rest on a discipline record we have not seen bettered.
Derby take 2.75 cards a game and commit 13.1 fouls — both the highest figures in our data. Portsmouth have scored eight goals in nine home matches and nineteen in eleven away.
Portsmouth vs Derby County Team Stats
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Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 31 August.
Portsmouth vs Derby Key Stats and Insights
- 2.75 own cards a game for Derby and 13.1 fouls, both the highest figures in our data from any side in any division.
- 8 goals in 9 home matches for Portsmouth at 0.89 a game, against 19 in eleven away at 1.73 — a reversed split and the widest we have logged this week.
- 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats for Derby. One draw in twenty is the fewest we have recorded.
- 2.600 to 2.250 on Portsmouth since the market opened, with Derby drifting from 2.600 to 3.250. The fixture opened level and no longer is.
- 3.98 cards a game for Samuel Allison across 58 Championship matches in his last three seasons, against a career figure of 3.37.
- 2.60 big chances a game created by Derby against Portsmouth’s 1.55, the widest creation gap on Tuesday’s card.
- 6.5% margin, joint-widest we have recorded alongside Preston vs Bristol City on the same night.
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Portsmouth vs Derby Bet Builder Tips
C. Forsyth Anytime Goalscorer — 0.26 per 90, 8/1
One goal in 346 minutes at 0.26 per 90, which puts him around 23% across a full match against an implied 11%. That is the widest gap on this page.
The sample is why the price is long and it is the honest caution. Three hundred and forty-six minutes sits below the threshold we normally publish at, and his last three read 83, 74 and 29 minutes — he is in the side but not certain of ninety.
He is named at left-back with Derry Murkin out, and Derby’s set-piece delivery runs through the left. A defender at 8/1 on a rate that would make him 23% is the kind of line the market rounds rather than prices, which is where our anytime goalscorer tips tend to find value.
L. Travis to be Carded — 0.33 per 90, 11/5
Six yellows in 1,639 minutes at 0.33 per 90, booked in two of his last six — about 28% against an implied 31%.
The price is fair and the record is the reason to take it. Derby take 2.75 cards a game and commit 13.1 fouls, both the highest figures we hold from any side in any division. A holding midfielder in that side has a real chance of being booked whatever the market thinks, and Travis has 44 tackles across the sample — the highest total in either squad.
He has started 86, 90 and 84 minutes in his last three, so there is no rotation question. Samuel Allison books 3.98 a game across 58 Championship matches against a career figure of 3.37, which puts him level with the two sides rather than above or below them.
Marlon Pack carries the higher rate at 0.40 per 90 and is a pointer above. He came off after ten minutes in his most recent appearance, which is why Travis is the leg. More on how we weigh both on our card tips page.
Both Teams to Score — 14 of Portsmouth’s Last 20, 11 of Derby’s
Each side failed to score three times in twenty — the joint-lowest blank count on Tuesday’s card — and both concede at similar rates, 1.60 and 1.45 a game.
Derby create considerably more: 2.60 big chances a game against Portsmouth’s 1.55, the widest gap on the card. They also miss more, at 1.55 against 1.00.
Portsmouth’s home record is the oddity and the argument against. Eight goals scored and eleven conceded across nine matches at Fratton Park, against nineteen and twenty-one in eleven away — a reversed split and the widest we have logged this week. Their matches at home are quiet ones.
How the Three Fit Together
Three legs at 8/1, 11/5 and 4/6, which compounds to around 45/1. Forsyth’s price is what makes it long and Travis’s card is what makes it likely.
The card market on this fixture is priced close to our own numbers — Travis at 31% implied against a 28% record, Clark 25% against 26%, Pack 29% against 33%. That is not a reason to leave them out. Derby take 2.75 cards a game and commit 13.1 fouls, both the highest figures we hold from any side in any division, and a midfielder in that side has a genuine chance of being booked whether the price is generous or fair.
Pack, Travis and Clark all sit in the card group, so only one can be a leg. Travis has the largest sample at 1,639 minutes and the steadiest recent minutes — 86, 90 and 84, against Pack’s 74, 86 and 10. The other two are pointers above and both are worth taking as singles. Our bet builder tips page explains why market group decides that rather than raw edge.
Forsyth and both teams to score need Derby attacking. Travis needs the match contested. The three do not all fail together.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 8/1 into a percentage and the market is saying 11%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — goals or cards per 90, or how often he has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Forsyth anytime goalscorer | 8/1 | 11% | 23% |
| M. Pack to be carded | 5/2 | 29% | 33% |
The ones where the two agree, which we are still tipping:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Travis to be carded | 11/5 | 31% | 28% |
| B. Clark to be carded | 3/1 | 25% | 26% |
And the one priced above what the player has done:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Morris anytime goalscorer | 12/5 | 29% | 24% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.5% across the three match result outcomes. So a perfectly fair price will still look slightly against us — Travis at 31% against 28% is closer to level than the numbers suggest, not a market edge.
That is why a small gap is not a reason to avoid a selection. Derby take 2.75 cards a game and commit 13.1 fouls, both the highest figures we hold from any side in any division, and a midfielder in that team is worth naming whether or not the price is generous. What we will not tip is the last table — where the market is asking for more than the record supports.
Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Our model gives Derby 39%, the draw 26% and Portsmouth 35%. The market says 41.7%, 29.4% and 28.9% — a ten-point gap on the away side, right on the threshold where we defer to the price.
We publish the market because of the movement rather than the size of the gap. This opened level at 35.6% each way. Portsmouth have since come in from 2.600 to 2.250 and Derby drifted to 3.250, which is a six-point swing on both sides since the price went up. Something has moved it that our figures cannot see.
Derby have drawn one of twenty, the fewest we have recorded from any side, which cuts against a 1-1. Portsmouth have drawn four. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.