Our Preston vs Bristol City bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from two sides who cannot defend.
Preston kept one clean sheet in twenty and Bristol City three. Scott Twine is 9/4 to have four shots and has managed it in three of his last six. Every player below is a confirmed starter.
Preston North End vs Bristol City
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 31 August.
Preston vs Bristol City Key Stats and Insights
- 1 clean sheet in 20 for Preston, the lowest count in our Championship data, with 35 conceded. Bristol City managed three.
- 35.00 clearances a game for Preston, the highest figure in our records from any side.
- 3 of 6 for Scott Twine having four or more shots, at 9/4 — that is 50% against an implied 31%.
- 1.90 conceded a game at home for Bristol City and 1.89 for Preston. Both sides are worse at home than away, which is unusual for either and remarkable for both.
- 19.40 touches in the box for Preston against Bristol City’s 16.10, the two lowest figures on any page this week.
- 2.550 to 2.800 on Bristol City since the market opened, with Preston shortening from 2.550 to 2.500.
- 6.5% margin on this fixture, the widest we have recorded.
Preston vs Bristol City Bet Builder Tips
S. Twine 4+ Shots — 3 of His Last 6, 9/4
1, 4, 4, 4, 0 and 3 in his last six, at 2.70 per 90 across 1,366 minutes. Four or more in three of them is 50% against an implied 31%.
Forty-one shots is the highest total in either squad by some distance, and the run has three fours in it rather than one outlier carrying the average. He has started 68, 71 and 90 minutes in his last three, so the minutes are there.
Preston clear the ball 35.00 times a game — the highest figure in our records from any side — which puts a great many second balls into midfield. That is where a shooting midfielder’s volume comes from. The 2.5 line at 10/11 is the firmer version at 67% against an implied 52% and it is a pointer above. Our Championship tips pages lean on shots because bet365 price no fouls or tackles at this level.
L. Lindsay 2+ Shots — 3 of His Last 6, 12/5
0, 1, 2, 2, 2 and 1 in his last six, at 1.34 per 90 across 872 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 29%.
Thirteen shots from a centre-back is unusual volume, and the recent run is the steadier half of it — three twos in the last four. Preston take 2.85 first-half corners a game against Bristol City’s 1.95, the higher figure, and a centre-back’s shots come from set pieces.
Lewis Gibson is suspended, which makes Lindsay the senior centre-back rather than one of two. He has started 90, 65 and 90 minutes in his last three, so there is no rotation question.
D. Burgzorg to be Carded — 0.66 per 90, 11/4
4 yellows in 546 minutes at 0.66 per 90 — the highest card rate among the twenty-two confirmed starters — which puts him around 48% against an implied 27%.
He is at Preston on loan from Bristol City and faces his parent club. That is why our pull carries him in the Bristol column: the minutes are logged against his registration rather than his loan, and every number in them is a Preston record made this season.
His last three read 84, 77 and 90 minutes, so the 546 season total understates him badly — he has come into the side. Bristol City’s matches averaged 4.20 cards against Preston’s 3.15, and both sides take two of their own a game.
No referee has been appointed, which is the one thing missing. Every card line we publish is normally priced off the official’s rate, and our card tips would usually name him. Here the player and the fixture carry it alone.
Both Teams to Score — 13 of Preston’s Last 20, 11 of Bristol City’s
Preston kept one clean sheet across twenty matches and Bristol City three — the two lowest counts in our Championship data. Preston conceded 35 goals, Bristol City 33.
Both sides also concede more at home than away, which is unusual for either and remarkable for both: 1.89 a game for Preston at Deepdale and 1.90 for Bristol City at Ashton Gate. Whatever is wrong with these two defences travels with them.
The argument against is at the other end. Preston blanked six times in twenty and Bristol City seven, and both take barely ten shots a game with the two lowest touches-in-the-box figures on any page this week. Two poor defences do not guarantee goals if neither attack can find them.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 9/4, 12/5, 11/4 and 4/6, which compounds to around 65/1. Burgzorg’s card is what makes the price long and it is there on the numbers — 0.66 per 90 is the highest rate among the confirmed starters and the gap is the widest on the page.
Scott Twine at three shots was the alternative fourth at 67% against an implied 52%, and it shares a market group with his own four-shot line. Our bet builder tips page explains why market group decides that rather than raw edge.
Twine, Lindsay and both teams to score all need the match open, so three of the four fail together if it stays tight. Burgzorg does not, which is the argument for including him beyond the price.
Preston vs Bristol City Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Our model gives Bristol City 40%, the draw 25% and Preston 35%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.46. The market says 37.6%, 28.9% and 33.5% — agreement inside five points on every outcome.
The 6.5% margin is the widest we have recorded, past Stoke vs Norwich at 6.1% and Tottenham vs Newcastle at 5.6%. A wide margin usually means less information in the price, which is why we publish our own number here rather than deferring to it.
The money has gone against our model. Bristol City drifted from 2.550 to 2.800 since the price opened while Preston shortened marginally, and we have Bristol City as the more likely winner. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.