Our Stoke vs Norwich bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from the biggest market move we have recorded. Stoke have lost their last six and opened as marginal favourites; they are now 3.100 against Norwich’s 2.250.
Kenny McLean is 6/1 to have three shots and has managed it in two of his last six.
Stoke City vs Norwich City
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 31 August.
Stoke vs Norwich Key Stats and Insights
- 6 straight defeats for Stoke, who have won three of twenty and kept two clean sheets.
- 4 goals in 10 away matches for Stoke at 0.4 a game, against 16 in ten at home — the widest home-away split in our records.
- minus 0.57 goals prevented for the Stoke goalkeepers, the worst shot-stopping figure we have logged from any side.
- 2.600 to 3.100 on Stoke since the market opened, with Norwich shortening from 2.500 to 2.250. That is a five-point swing on both sides and the largest pre-match move we have recorded.
- 1.82 shots on target per 90 for Mohamed Touré, 17 in 842 minutes — the best rate in either squad.
- 6 unavailable at Norwich, including Paris Maghoma, Ali Ahmed and José Córdoba to suspension.
- 4.20 cards a match between the two sides, with Stoke on 2.25 of their own and Norwich 2.10 — against a referee who books 3.13.
- 3.13 cards a game for Andrew Kitchen across 75 Championship matches in three seasons, against a career figure of 2.61. That gap of 0.52 is the smallest in our card tips data.
Stoke vs Norwich Bet Builder Tips
K. McLean 3+ Shots — 2 of His Last 6, 6/1
0, 1, 2, 3, 1 and 3 in his last six, at 1.22 per 90 across 1,693 minutes. Two of six clearing three is 33% against an implied 14% — the widest gap on this page.
Twenty-three shots from a holding midfielder is unusual volume, and the recent direction runs the right way: three in each of his last two. He has also played 80, 90 and 90 minutes in his last three, so there is no rotation question at all.
Norwich are missing Paris Maghoma, Ali Ahmed and José Córdoba, so the midfield runs through McLean more than it usually would. The 1.5 line at 2/1 implies 33% against a record of three in six if you want the shorter version — that is a pointer above. Our Championship tips pages lean on this market because bet365 do not price fouls or tackles at this level.
M. Touré Anytime Goalscorer — 11 Goals in 842 Minutes, 7/4
Eleven goals at 1.18 per 90 is the highest scoring rate we have recorded from any player this season, and his last six read 2, 0, 0, 1, 0 and 1. Three of six is 50% against an implied 36%.
Stoke are the reason it is more than a rate. Two clean sheets in twenty, 21 goals conceded across ten away matches and minus 0.57 goals prevented in goal — the worst shot-stopping figure we hold from any side.
The caveat is minutes rather than form. Eight hundred and forty-two across the season is squad territory on our own scale, which normally rules a player out of a build. His last three read 71, 90 and 86 — he has come into the side, and that is only visible in the per-match figures rather than the total.
M. Touré 1+ Shot on Target — 5 of His Last 6, 2/5
2, 0, 1, 1, 1 and 2 in his last six, at 1.82 per 90 across 842 minutes. On target in five of six is 83% against an implied 71%.
Seventeen on target from 27 shots is a 63% accuracy rate — the highest we have recorded from any player. That is what separates him from a striker with volume and no end product, and it is why both his lines are in the build.
Two legs from one player is a concentration worth stating. If Touré is withdrawn on the hour, both fail together. Our shots on target prop bets page normally warns against exactly this, and it is here because his rate and Stoke’s defensive record are the two strongest numbers on the page.
Both Teams to Score — 12 of Stoke’s Last 20, 10 of Norwich’s
Stoke kept two clean sheets across twenty matches and conceded 39 goals. Norwich blanked four times in twenty and scored 1.44 a game away from home.
The Norwich half is close to a formality. The Stoke half is the question, and a real one — four goals across ten away matches at 0.4 a game. But this is at the bet365 Stadium where they managed 16 in ten, at 1.60 a game.
That home-away split is the widest in our records and it cuts against the obvious reading of a side on six straight defeats. What beats this leg is Norwich keeping their seventh clean sheet in twenty-one.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 6/1, 7/4, 2/5 and 4/6, which compounds to around 40/1. McLean’s shots line carries most of the length and most of the edge.
Two of the four are Mohamed Touré, which we would normally avoid. They are here because his 1.18 goals per 90 and 1.82 shots on target per 90 are the two best attacking rates on the page by a distance, and because Stoke have conceded in eighteen of twenty. Our bet builder tips page sets out why we usually spread across players — the risk here is a substitution rather than form.
Everything on this page needs Norwich attacking, which the market now expects far more than it did when the price opened.
Stoke vs Norwich Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Norwich. Our model gives them 46%, the draw 24% and Stoke 30%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.61. The market says 30.4%, 27.7% and 41.9% — agreement inside five points on every outcome.
The movement is the story rather than the price. At opening this was 35.4% Stoke and 36.8% Norwich, near enough a coin flip. Stoke have since drifted from 2.600 to 3.100 and Norwich shortened from 2.500 to 2.250 — a five-point swing on both sides and the largest pre-match move we have recorded.
The 6.1% margin is also the widest we have seen, past Tottenham vs Newcastle at 5.6%. A wide margin alongside a large move usually means the book has taken a position on news rather than on modelling, and Norwich losing six players to injury and suspension has not stopped it. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.