Our Swansea vs Watford bet builder tips, predictions and best bets rest on the highest card figure we have measured in our bet buider stats.
Watford’s matches averaged 4.95 last season and they take 2.40 of their own a game. Swansea have won ten of twenty and kept seven clean sheets. Every player below is a confirmed starter.
Swansea City vs Watford Team Stats
Bet £40 Get £20 in Free Bets
Offer available to new customers only who sign up with Promo Code BET40GET20. Place a bet of £40 (or more) at EVS (2.0) or greater and Get 2 x £10 Free Bets. 1 x £10 Free Bet paid automatically & following £10 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0). Free Bets expire after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ | #ad | BeGambleAware.org
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 31 August.
Swansea vs Watford Key Stats and Insights
- 4.95 cards a match in Watford games, the highest figure we have measured from any side, with 2.40 of their own a game.
- 9 goals in 11 away matches for Watford at 0.82 a game, against 21 conceded.
- 7 clean sheets in 20 for Swansea and one goal a game conceded at home, against three clean sheets for Watford.
- 8 blanks in 20 for Watford, the higher failed-to-score count by three.
- 4 of 6 for Othmane Maamma clearing two shots, at 4/5 — 67% against an implied 56%.
- 0.52 cards per 90 for Edoardo Bove, the highest rate among the confirmed starters, at 13/5.
- 4.42 cards a match between the two sides, the highest pairing in our data, against a referee who books 4.44 — the first fixture where the official and both sides agree at that level.
- 4.44 cards a game for Edward Duckworth across 81 EFL matches in three seasons, against a published career figure of 3.04. His six Championship games last season averaged 5.83.
Swansea vs Watford Bet Builder Tips
Bet £10 on Swansea vs Watford, get £40 in Free Bets
New custmer offer.
E. Bove to be Carded — 0.52 per 90, 13/5
3 yellows in 516 minutes at 0.52 per 90 — the highest card rate among the twenty-two confirmed starters — which puts him around 41% against an implied 28%.
Watford’s matches averaged 4.95 cards last season, the highest figure we have measured from any side in any division, and they take 2.40 of their own a game against Swansea’s 1.90. They also commit 11.60 fouls a match to Swansea’s 9.70.
His last three read 90, 67 and 61 minutes, so the 516 season total understates him — he has come into the side rather than drifted out of it. Our card tips are normally priced off the referee’s rate as well as the player’s, and no official has been appointed here. That is the one thing missing.
O. Maamma 2+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 4/5
2, 0, 3, 3, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 2.32 per 90 across 776 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 56%.
Twenty shots is the highest total in the Watford squad and he has started 73, 58 and 77 minutes in his last three. The volume is real and the minutes are there.
The two blanks are the honest caution and both came in full appearances. Swansea concede one goal a game at home and kept seven clean sheets in twenty, so the chances may be scarce — and Watford as a side have nine goals in eleven away matches. Our Championship tips pages lean on shots because bet365 price no fouls or tackles at this level.
No Both Teams to Score — 11 of Swansea’s Last 20, 9 of Watford’s
Swansea kept seven clean sheets across twenty matches and conceded one goal a game at home. Only 45% of their matches produced goals at both ends, the lower of the two rates.
Watford are the reason this is more than a defensive bet. They failed to score in eight of twenty and managed 0.82 a game away from home — the lowest away scoring figure on any page we have built this week. Their form line reads D D W L L L.
What beats it is Swansea blanking themselves. They failed to score five times in twenty, and a 0-0 settles this leg while a 0-1 does not. The leg needs Swansea to score and Watford not to, which is the single most likely shape of the evening but not by a wide margin.
Why Three Legs and Not Four
There is no fourth worth taking, and the card market is why.
Melker Widell at 21/10 implies 32% against a 35% record, Jay Fulton at 11/4 implies 27% against 26%, Hector Kyprianou at 2/1 implies 33% against 28%. All three are level — accurate prices on real records, which is unusual across a whole market and worth saying.
Bove is the exception at 41% against an implied 28%, and he is in the build. Our bet builder tips page sets out why we would rather publish three at value than add a fourth priced correctly.
Bove and Maamma both need Watford involved in the game. No both teams to score needs them contained. That is a genuine tension rather than a correlated build, and it is the honest reason the price is not longer.
Swansea vs Watford Prediction
We are predicting 1-0 to Swansea. Our model gives them 49%, the draw 25% and Watford 25%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.04. The market says 50.8%, 26.0% and 23.2% — agreement inside two points on every outcome.
Both records are current Championship figures needing no adjustment, and this is the third fixture this week where our number and the price have landed in the same place. The others were Coventry vs Hull and Sunderland vs Fulham.
Swansea have won ten of twenty and lost five, with seven clean sheets. Watford have won four and lost nine, and their away record reads nine goals in eleven matches against 21 conceded. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
Get a Free Bet for Swansea vs Watford
New customers can claim a welcome offer from any of the bookmakers below and use it on Tuesday night’s game at the Swansea.com Stadium.
More Championship and Betting Tips
- Championship tips for every round
- Players to be booked this week
- Both teams to score tips across the card
- Compare UK bookmakers before you place it
Upcoming Football Tips
Nothing there.
Today
19:30Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC KölnBundesliga12 tips19:45Frosinone vs SassuoloSerie A15 tips20:00Burnley vs WolverhamptonChampionship10 tips20:00Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UDLa Liga15 tipsTomorrow
12:30Everton vs ChelseaPremier League12 tips12:30Middlesbrough vs Cardiff CityChampionship15 tips12:30Millwall vs Lincoln CityChampionship13 tips12:30Watford vs Charlton AthleticChampionship10 tips12:30Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton TownLeague One13 tips12:30Peterborough United vs Burton AlbionLeague One7 tips12:30Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham UnitedLeague Two10 tips12:30Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol RoversLeague Two7 tips13:00Espanyol vs Atlético MadridLa Liga12 tips14:00Venezia vs NapoliSerie A11 tips14:301. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia DortmundBundesliga12 tips14:30FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga16 tips14:30Hamburger SV vs VfB StuttgartBundesliga11 tips14:30SV 07 Elversberg vs FC AugsburgBundesliga15 tips14:30SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga9 tips15:00Brentford vs LiverpoolPremier League14 tips15:00Fulham vs Hull CityPremier League16 tips15:00Manchester City vs Ipswich TownPremier League17 tips15:00Birmingham City vs Queens Park RangersChampionship16 tips15:00Bristol City vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship15 tips15:00Derby County vs Stoke CityChampionship14 tips15:00Norwich City vs PortsmouthChampionship16 tips15:00Southampton vs Bolton WanderersChampionship13 tips15:00Swansea City vs West Ham UnitedChampionship16 tips15:00West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn RoversChampionship13 tips15:00Wrexham vs Preston North EndChampionship13 tips15:00Barnsley vs Cambridge UnitedLeague One8 tips15:00Bradford City vs StevenageLeague One9 tips15:00Leicester City vs Doncaster RoversLeague One8 tips15:00Leyton Orient vs BlackpoolLeague One7 tips15:00Plymouth Argyle vs Huddersfield TownLeague One8 tips15:00Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC WimbledonLeague One8 tips15:00Stockport County vs BromleyLeague One11 tips15:00Wigan Athletic vs ReadingLeague One7 tips15:00Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts CountyLeague One11 tips15:00Accrington Stanley vs GillinghamLeague Two8 tips15:00Colchester United vs Exeter CityLeague Two7 tips15:00Crewe Alexandra vs RochdaleLeague Two10 tips15:00Grimsby Town vs Northampton TownLeague Two9 tips15:00Newport County vs York CityLeague Two11 tips15:00Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham TownLeague Two11 tips15:00Port Vale vs ChesterfieldLeague Two11 tips15:00Salford City vs Crawley TownLeague Two9 tips15:00Swindon Town vs WalsallLeague Two7 tips15:00Tranmere Rovers vs BarnetLeague Two13 tips15:15Villarreal vs ElcheLa Liga11 tips18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.