Our West Brom vs Charlton bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from the most heavily rebuilt pair of squads we have handled, and we have three best bets ranging from 4/5 to 11/4.
Thirteen players in our tables are not priced at all. West Brom kept nine clean sheets in twenty and Charlton conceded 1.08 a game at home.
West Bromwich Albion vs Charlton Athletic
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, both in the Championship. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
West Brom vs Charlton Key Stats and Insights
- 13 players in our tables have no price, the most on any page we have built. Six of them started all three of their most recent matches.
- 9 clean sheets in 20 for West Brom and 0.70 goals conceded a game at the Hawthorns, the best home defensive figure in our Championship data.
- 40.2% possession for Charlton against West Brom’s 51.9%, with 32.35 clearances a game against 26.15.
- 0.71 goals per 90 for Jimmy Morgan, the best scoring rate in either squad, from 253 minutes and three starts in his last three.
- 4.00 cards a game for Farai Hallam across 35 Championship matches in his last two seasons, against a career figure of 2.58 — a correction of 1.42.
- 9 draws in 20 for West Brom, the most drawn record on any page this week, with six wins and five defeats.
- 15% and 10% of the two sides’ matches passed 3.5 goals, the two lowest figures on the card.
West Brom vs Charlton Bet Builder Tips
J. Morgan Anytime Goalscorer — 0.71 per 90, 13/8
Two goals in 253 minutes at 0.71 per 90 — the best scoring rate in either squad by a distance — which puts him around 44% across a full match against an implied 38%.
The sample is the caution and it is a real one. Two hundred and fifty-three minutes sits well below the threshold we normally publish at, and a rate off two goals can be an accident.
What makes it usable is the shape of those minutes: 86, 78 and 89 in his last three, all starts. The season total describes a player who was not playing rather than one who is not now, and that distinction is only visible in the per-match figures. Charlton conceded 1.08 a game at home and 1.12 away, so there is no defensive record here to stop him.
Under 2.5 Goals — 57% Between the Two Records, 11/10
West Brom cleared 2.5 goals in 45% of their matches and Charlton in 40%, so under lands around 57% against an implied 48%. That is the widest team-market gap on this page.
Fifteen and ten per cent of their matches passed 3.5 goals, the two lowest figures on any page this week. Both sides average around 1.05 goals a game.
West Brom kept nine clean sheets in twenty and conceded 0.70 at the Hawthorns — the best home defensive figure in our Championship data. Charlton hold 40.2% of the ball and take 32.35 clearances a game, which is the profile of a side happy to keep it tight.
Over 3.5 Cards — 3.80 Blended, 10/11
West Brom matches averaged 3.40 cards and Charlton’s 3.80, for 3.60 between them. Charlton take 2.05 of their own a game and commit 11.25 fouls to West Brom’s 10.10.
Farai Hallam books 4.00 a game across 35 Championship matches in his last two seasons against a career figure of 2.58 — a correction of 1.42. Blended the fixture lands around 3.80, which makes four or more a 53% shot against an implied 52%.
Level, and the referee is what makes it so. Without the correction this would look like a clear lay, which is why our card tips always use the level being played rather than the published career figure.
Both Teams to Score — 9 of West Brom’s Last 20, 13 of Charlton’s
About 55% between them against an implied 52% at 10/11.
The two halves disagree sharply. Charlton’s 65% is the highest on this page; West Brom’s 45% is among the lowest, and they kept nine clean sheets.
This and under 2.5 goals are both in the build and they are not opposed. A 1-1 settles both, and two sides averaging around a goal a game is exactly what points at that scoreline.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 11/4 into a percentage and the market is saying 27%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — goals per 90, or how often he has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Kelman anytime goalscorer | 11/4 | 27% | 41% |
| J. Morgan anytime goalscorer | 13/8 | 38% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 11/10 | 48% | 57% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| I. Price 3+ shots | 4/5 | 56% | 50% |
| T. Campbell 2+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 10/11 | 52% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 cards | 10/11 | 52% | 53% |
Nothing on this page is priced above what the numbers support — the closest is Isaac Price’s shots line at 56% implied against a 50% record.
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.8% across the three match result outcomes. So a fair price will still look slightly against us.
Both goalscorer gaps rest on small samples — 253 and 448 minutes — which is why they are wide. A rate off two or three goals moves a long way on one more, and the market prices the minutes rather than the rate.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 13/8, 11/10, 10/11 and 10/11, which compounds to around 22/1.
Two goalscorer legs became one. Morgan and Kelman both scoring needs the same open match, and Kelman’s minutes are the weaker of the two at 12, 83 and 59. He stays as a single above at 11/4, where the price pays for the risk.
Under 2.5 goals and both teams to score pull against each other deliberately — one wants a low-scoring match, the other wants both sides on the scoresheet, and 1-1 settles both. That is the shape these two records point at. Our bet builder tips page covers why a build can hold two legs that look opposed as long as a real scoreline lands them together.
The card leg is level rather than value and it is here because Charlton take 2.05 of their own a game and Hallam’s career figure understates him by 1.42.
West Brom vs Charlton Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Our model gives West Brom 42%, the draw 28% and Charlton 30%. The market says 53.5%, 26.8% and 19.7% — a ten-point gap on the away side, right on the threshold where we defer.
This is the first fixture this round with no division problem. Both records are current Championship figures needing no adjustment, so the disagreement is about the sides rather than the data.
What our model is picking up is West Brom’s nine draws in twenty — the most drawn record on any page this week — against six wins and five defeats. Charlton won nine of twenty. The market has West Brom as clear favourites and our figures make it closer than that. Boylesports are offering £40 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
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More Championship and Betting Tips
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.