Italy vs Belgium Predictions, Betting Tips and Stats for a Bet Builder

Our Italy vs Belgium prediction is Kevin De Bruyne to have a shot on target at 5/6, a 70% chance on his own record against the 55% the price implies.

The best fixture of the round and the deepest card of selections: six tracked bets across three markets. Belgium take 18.9 shots a game and hit 6.8 on target, both the highest figures on Friday, and carry an expected goals number of 2.23. Italy are no slouches at 15.9 and 5.7. Everything on this page is free this week, tips included.

Italy vs Belgium Prediction

Kevin De Bruyne to have a shot on target, 5/6. The reasoning, the record behind it and the implied probability are in the tips section below, and every selection carries our own percentage beside the bookmaker’s.

What We Are Not Backing, and Why

The markets we looked at and left alone, with the numbers, because a preview that only tells you what to back is hiding half the work.

• The result at 2.20, 3.50 and 3.20. Italy 43%, the draw 27%, Belgium 30% once the margin comes out. We make it the same.
• Over 9.5 corners at 5/6. Belgium win 7.35 corners a game and Italy 5.70, and our number comes out at 84% against 55% implied. A gap that size is further than we trust the estimate, so it sits in the bet builder rather than the best bets.
• The card markets. Daniel Siebert referees, and his own rate is 4.23 yellows a game — a real number rather than a default, so the market is open to us here. Nothing clears the bar: Bastoni at 31% against an implied 27% is the closest.

 

Our shots on target tips cover the same market across every competition we price. The fouls markets are the ones our tackles and fouls tips are built on. Corners selections sit alongside the rest of our value bets.

Team News and Who Is Actually Available

We do not publish a predicted eleven. Nobody knows one this far out and a guess dressed as team news helps no one. What we publish instead is who the bookmaker has priced, which is a harder signal: bet365 will not put a price on a player who cannot feature, and they have money riding on being right.

13 Italy players and 15 Belgium players carry prices on this fixture. Every one appears in the tables below. Anyone not priced has been stripped out.

Italy vs Belgium Corners

Italy win 5.7 corners a game and Belgium 7.35, with 3.05 and 4.0 of those in the first half. Italy take 15.9 shots a game to Belgium’s 18.9, and shot volume is what drives corner counts. The line is 9.5 and we make 10 or more a 84% chance against the 55% implied by 5/6.

Bet Builder Leg Finder Tool

Every priced player in this fixture, with his record over the last ten internationals beside the odds. Free, no sign-in, and it covers the markets bet365 price on this match. It is the same tool behind our daily bet builder tips.

Italy vs Belgium Tips and Best Bets

Italy vs Belgium FAQs

What is the Italy vs Belgium prediction?

Kevin de bruyne to have a shot on target at 5/6, a 70% chance on his own record against the 55% the price implies.

What time is Italy vs Belgium?

Friday 25 September 2026, 19:45 UK time.

What are the Italy vs Belgium odds?

Italy 2.2, the draw 3.5, Belgium 3.2 with bet365. Stripping the margin out, that is 43.2% for Italy, 27.1% for the draw and 29.7% for Belgium.

Will both teams score?

Yes is 1.615 and no is 2.2. Both teams have scored in 55% of Italy’s last twenty and 60% of Belgium’s.

More UEFA Nations League Tips and Predictions

• Player Props Bet Finder
• Value bets
• Correct score tips
• Bet of the day
• Bet builder tips
• UEFA Nations League tips

 

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