England vs Croatia Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Andy Clark
England v Croatia - Nations League predictions and stats
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England vs Croatia

Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

EnglandWWWLWL
CroatiaLLLWLW

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – England 4 in the Nations League and 16 across three others, Croatia 4 in the Nations League and 16 across three others

Goals

2.50Scored per game2.05
0.85Conceded per game1.60
Home gamesAway games
1.83Scored2.00
0.83Conceded1.40
Correct Score 2-18/1

On the venue splits this projects England 2.01 against Croatia 1.36, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.7%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs England, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

2.02xG for1.72
0.98xG against1.31
+0.48Goals vs xG+0.33
England to Win1/4

England come in on W W W L W L, and at home they have scored 1.83 a game and conceded 0.83 across 12 matches. They have won 14 of their last 20 overall, drawing 3.

Croatia average 2.05 scored and 1.60 conceded. The venue splits project 2.01 against 1.36, which puts England at about 64% to win, against 22% for the draw.

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Under and Over

85%Over 1.5 goals85%
55%Over 2.5 goals80%
30%Over 3.5 goals45%
Over 2.5 Goals1/2

England have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Croatia in 80%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.

England average 2.50 scored and 0.85 conceded, Croatia 2.05 and 1.60. On the venue splits that projects 2.01 against 1.36, about 3.4 goals in the match and 66% for over 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

40%Both teams scored60%
11 of 20Clean sheets6 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score3 of 20
Both Teams to Score10/11

Both teams have scored in 8 of England’s last 20 matches and 12 of Croatia’s. England concede 0.85 a game and Croatia 1.60.

On the venue splits the projection is 2.01 against 1.36, which puts both teams scoring at about 57%.

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Shots

17.30Shots per game15.60
6.20On target per game5.55
35.8%Accuracy35.6%

Corners

6.45Won per game5.75
3.10First half2.70
48.1%Share before the break47.0%
Over 9.5 Corners5/6

England win 6.45 corners a game and Croatia 5.75, with 3.1 and 2.7 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 11 in the match, a 69% chance of 10 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.

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Cards and Fouls

2.35Cards in the match2.50
0.95Own cards per game1.35
0.80Cards by half time0.90
9.10Fouls committed9.35

Shooting Detail

11.70Shots inside the box10.75
5.60Shots outside the box4.85
5.95Off target6.00
5.15Blocked4.05

Big Chances

3.85Big chances created3.50
2.10Big chances missed2.15
45%Taken39%
34.80Touches in the box29.75

Record

14-3-3Won, drawn, lost12-1-7
11 of 20Clean sheets6 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score3 of 20

Possession

61.35%Average share56.80%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Elliot AndersonEngland · M14011.480.061.412.062.571
Harry KaneEngland · F13123.71.990.891.030.410
Ezri KonsaEngland · D12960.420.140.761.741.111
Jude BellinghamEngland · M11132.831.461.212.511.73
Anthony GordonEngland · F9682.61.390.651.670.840
Morgan RogersEngland · F9382.210.581.251.440.770
Nico O’ReillyEngland · D9071.190.11.090.891.192
Declan RiceEngland · M8771.130.510.410.01.332
John StonesEngland · D7690.230.00.470.230.470
Djed SpenceEngland · D7230.870.250.871.03.241
Jarell QuansahEngland · D6240.580.140.580.581.591
Reece JamesEngland · D5250.340.01.030.171.540
Marcus RashfordEngland · M5243.781.551.030.861.20
Eberechi EzeEngland · F5093.541.060.881.940.350
Ivan PerisicCroatia · M14971.81.080.90.31.324
Josip StanisicCroatia · D12790.420.140.070.561.060
Petar SucicCroatia · M12611.140.291.281.782.434
Luka ModricCroatia · M11131.620.570.570.811.052
Josko GvardiolCroatia · D10160.440.180.620.82.040
Mario PasalicCroatia · M8971.810.50.70.70.51
Martin BaturinaCroatia · M7751.050.120.73.140.461
Mateo KovacicCroatia · M7711.280.471.051.521.521
Luka VuskovicCroatia · D7350.730.241.840.491.472
Andrej KramaricCroatia · F7283.341.480.370.490.121
Marco PasalicCroatia · F6362.830.850.421.271.561
Ante BudimirCroatia · F6123.091.322.062.350.881
Duje Caleta-CarCroatia · D5531.140.330.980.650.332
Nikola VlasicCroatia · M5362.010.671.680.672.181
Igor MatanovicCroatia · F4314.591.252.922.30.420

Advised props

Jude Bellingham 1+ Shots on Target

Jude Bellingham has had a shot on target in 9 of his last 10 for England, at 1.46 per 90 across 1,113 minutes, and he averages 70 minutes a game when he plays.

England take 17.3 shots a game and hit 6.2 on target. That is about 90% on his own record, against the 77% implied by 3/10.

3/10Add
Luka Vuskovic 2+ Fouls Committed

Luka Vuskovic has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Croatia, at 1.84 per 90 across 735 minutes, and he averages 74 minutes a game when he plays.

England hold 61.35% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.

5/4Add
Anthony Gordon Anytime Goalscorer

Anthony Gordon has scored in 5 of his last 10 for England, at 0.56 per 90 across 968 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.

England score 2.50 a game. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.

6/4Add

Trends

Window shown per line
6/6100%England · Last sixEngland have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six.
6/6100%England · Last sixEngland have scored in every one of their last six.
0/60%England · Last sixEngland have seen five or more cards in the match in 0 of their last six.
6/6100%Croatia · Last sixCroatia have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six.
0/60%Croatia · Last sixCroatia have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six.
6/6100%Croatia · Last six awayCroatia have scored in every one of their last six on the road.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

England

06 OctCzechia (H)3-0W
03 OctCroatia (A)7-0W
29 SepCzechia (A)2-0W
26 SepSpain (H)2-3L
18 JulFrance (A)6-4W
15 JulArgentina (H)1-2L

Croatia

06 OctSpain (H)1-2L
03 OctEngland (H)0-7L
29 SepSpain (A)1-4L
26 SepCzechia (A)2-1W
02 JulPortugal (A)1-2L
27 JunGhana (H)2-1W
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Build Your Own England vs Croatia Bet

Jude Bellingham 1+ Shots on Target3/101.30
Why this betJude Bellingham has had a shot on target in 9 of his last 10 for England, at 1.46 per 90 across 1,113 minutes, and he averages 70 minutes a game when he plays.England take 17.3 shots a game and hit 6.2 on target. That is about 90% on his own record, against the 77% implied by 3/10.
Luka Vuskovic 2+ Fouls Committed5/42.25
Why this betLuka Vuskovic has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Croatia, at 1.84 per 90 across 735 minutes, and he averages 74 minutes a game when he plays.England hold 61.35% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.
Anthony Gordon Anytime Goalscorer6/42.50
Why this betAnthony Gordon has scored in 5 of his last 10 for England, at 0.56 per 90 across 968 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.England score 2.50 a game. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.
Over 9.5 Corners5/61.83
Why this betEngland win 6.45 corners a game and Croatia 5.75, with 3.1 and 2.7 of those in the first half.That leaves about 11 in the match, a 69% chance of 10 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.
England to Win1/41.25
Why this betEngland come in on W W W L W L, and at home they have scored 1.83 a game and conceded 0.83 across 12 matches. They have won 14 of their last 20 overall, drawing 3.Croatia average 2.05 scored and 1.60 conceded. The venue splits project 2.01 against 1.36, which puts England at about 64% to win, against 22% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score10/111.91
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 8 of England’s last 20 matches and 12 of Croatia’s. England concede 0.85 a game and Croatia 1.60.On the venue splits the projection is 2.01 against 1.36, which puts both teams scoring at about 57%.
Over 2.5 Goals1/21.50
Why this betEngland have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Croatia in 80%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.England average 2.50 scored and 0.85 conceded, Croatia 2.05 and 1.60. On the venue splits that projects 2.01 against 1.36, about 3.4 goals in the match and 66% for over 2.5.
Correct Score 2-18/19.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects England 2.01 against Croatia 1.36, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.7%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs England, which is where the board has the match too.
England to Win and Both Teams to Score7/42.75
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: England to win is about 64% and both teams scoring about 57%. England score 2.50 a game and concede 0.85, and Croatia have scored in 12 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 7/4.
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