Our Brentford vs Sunderland bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture where the fouls markets are badly priced, and we have four best bets ranging from Evens to 3/1.
Noah Sadiki has been fouled twice or more in four of his last six and is 2/1. Brentford have drawn six of their last ten.
Brentford vs Sunderland
Brentford
- D1-1at Leeds United30 Aug
- W3-0Tottenham Hotspur22 Aug
- D1-1at Liverpool24 May
- D2-2Crystal Palace17 May
- L0-3at Manchester City9 May
- W3-0West Ham United2 May
Sunderland
- W1-0Fulham30 Aug
- L1-2at Ipswich Town22 Aug
- W2-1Chelsea24 May
- W3-1at Everton17 May
- D0-0Manchester United9 May
- D1-1at Wolverhampton2 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches, all Premier League. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
Brentford vs Sunderland Key Stats and Insights
- 4 of 6 for Noah Sadiki being fouled twice or more, at 2/1 — that is 67% against an implied 33%, the widest gap on this page.
- 6 draws in Brentford’s last ten, including 0-0 with Fulham, 0-0 at Leeds and 1-1 at Liverpool. They have also won 3-0 twice in that run.
- 19 goals conceded in 10 away matches for Sunderland at 1.90 a game, against 12 conceded in ten at home.
- 4.30 cards a game for Thomas Bramall across 44 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a career figure of 2.73 — a correction of 1.57.
- 2.25 own cards a game for Sunderland against Brentford’s 1.75, and 11.85 fouls to 10.60.
- 45% both teams to score for Brentford, the lowest rate on any page this week.
- 8.65 corners a game between the two sides against a line of 9.5 — the market is asking for more than either side produces.
Brentford vs Sunderland Bet Builder Tips
N. Sadiki 2+ Fouls Drawn — 4 of His Last 6, 2/1
1, 3, 2, 1, 2 and 3 in his last six — fouled in every one of them, and twice or more in four. Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 33%, the widest gap on this page.
The floor is one rather than nought, which matters more on this line than the average does. A player who is never left alone is a different proposition from one who draws four fouls once a month.
He was a Best Bet for us at 7/4 on the same market last week, and the price has drifted rather than shortened. Brentford commit 10.60 fouls a game — the lower figure of the two — which is the argument against, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page covers why the opposition’s habits matter as much as the player’s.
V. Janelt to be Carded — 0.60 per 90 Regressed, 3/1
Eight yellows in 947 minutes is 0.76 per 90 raw. Regressed against a baseline it is 0.60 and about 45%, against an implied 25% — and it barely moves under the regression, which is what a real sample looks like rather than a hot streak.
He is the highest card rate among the players available on either side.
Thomas Bramall books 4.30 a game across 44 Premier League matches against a published career figure of 2.73 — a correction of 1.57. Sunderland take 2.25 cards of their own a game and commit 11.85 fouls, both the higher figures. Our referee card stats page has the full list of officials and their real rates.
E. Le Fée 2+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 10/11
4, 0, 2, 2, 3 and 0 in his last six. Four of six is 67% against an implied 52%.
The two blanks are the honest caution and both came in full appearances — this is a player who either shoots or does not, rather than one whose returns depend on minutes.
Sunderland take 11.40 shots a game against Brentford’s 12.75, and 21.50 touches in the box against 27.95. They are the lower figure on both counts, so the volume has to come from him rather than from the team around him.
Under 9.5 Corners — 8.65 a Game Between the Sides
Brentford take 4.95 corners a match and Sunderland 3.70, for 8.65 between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 37% of the time on those figures.
Sunderland’s 3.70 is the lowest corner figure in our Premier League data, and neither side crosses much — 5.50 and 3.20 accurate crosses a game.
The over is priced at 8/11, implying 58%. That is a twenty-one point gap in the wrong direction and the widest we have found on a corners line, which is why the under is the selection here. Our corner predictions page covers the same market across the round.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 2/1 into a percentage and the market is saying 33%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| N. Sadiki 2+ fouls drawn | 2/1 | 33% | 67% |
| G. Xhaka 3+ fouls drawn | 3/1 | 25% | 50% |
| V. Janelt to be carded | 3/1 | 25% | 45% |
| M. Kayode 2+ fouls drawn | 9/4 | 31% | 50% |
| G. Xhaka 2+ fouls drawn | Evens | 50% | 67% |
| E. Le Fée 2+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 67% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 8/13 | 62% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | 10/11 | 52% | 48% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 corners | 8/11 | 58% | 37% |
| D. Ouattara 3+ shots | 4/5 | 56% | 50% |
| Igor Thiago anytime goalscorer | 20/21 | 51% | 34% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 5.3%.
Over 9.5 corners is the clearest thing to avoid on any page this week. The two sides produce 8.65 between them and the line asks for ten — a twenty-one point gap and the reason the under is one of our four.
Brentford vs Sunderland Betting Tips
Four selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Noah Sadiki two or more fouls drawn — 2/1. Fouled in all six of his last six and twice or more in four. Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 33%, the widest gap here, and the floor is one rather than nought.
Granit Xhaka two or more fouls drawn — Evens. Four of his last six, with the single blank coming in a full appearance. Sunderland enter the final third 57.65 times a game against Brentford’s 53.70 despite holding less of the ball.
Enzo Le Fée two or more shots — 10/11. Four of his last six, and the two blanks were both full ninety-minute outings. Sunderland take 21.50 touches in the box a game against Brentford’s 27.95, so the volume has to be his.
Vitaly Janelt to be carded — 3/1. Eight yellows in 947 minutes, which regresses to 0.60 per 90 and about 45% against an implied 25%. Bramall books 4.30 a game and Sunderland take 2.25 cards of their own.
Three of the four are in our bet builder, alongside under 9.5 corners. Sadiki and Xhaka are both fouls-drawn selections and only one belongs in a build — two players being fouled needs the same physical match, which is one bet at the price of two. Xhaka stays as a single.
We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Brentford vs Sunderland Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 60.4% Brentford, 23.7% the draw and 15.8% Sunderland. Our model gives Brentford 46%, the draw 24% and Sunderland 29% — a thirteen-point gap on the away side.
Brentford have drawn six of their last ten, including 0-0 with Fulham, 0-0 at Leeds and 1-1 at Liverpool, alongside two 3-0 home wins. It is a record that produces very few losses and not many wins either.
Sunderland have won four of their last ten, including 2-1 at Newcastle and 2-1 over Chelsea. Their problem is the away record rather than the form — 19 conceded in ten at 1.90 a game against 12 in ten at home.
We publish the market. The money agrees with it rather than with us: Sunderland have drifted from 5.000 to 6.000 since the price opened. Coral are offering £30 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.