Our Fulham vs Crystal Palace bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a Palace record that European football has been flattering, and we have four best bets ranging from 8/11 to 7/4.
Their last six Premier League matches produced six goals and fifteen conceded. Emile Smith Rowe has been fouled in five of his last six.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Fulham
- L0-1at Sunderland30 Aug
- L2-3Chelsea24 Aug
- W2-0Newcastle United24 May
- D1-1at Wolverhampton17 May
- L0-1Bournemouth9 May
- L0-3at Arsenal2 May
Crystal Palace
- L1-4Manchester City28 Aug
- L0-2at Everton22 Aug
- L1-2Arsenal24 May
- D2-2at Brentford17 May
- L0-3at Manchester City13 May
- D2-2Everton10 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Seven of Palace’s were European fixtures. Prices are bet365, checked 3 September.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Key Stats and Insights
- 6 scored and 15 conceded for Palace across the Premier League matches in their last ten — 1.00 and 2.50 a game. Their twenty-match figures of 1.20 and 1.50 are held up by seven European fixtures.
- 9 blanks in 20 for Fulham, and six goals in ten away matches at 0.60 a game.
- 5 of 6 for Emile Smith Rowe being fouled, at 8/11 — 83% against an implied 58%.
- 20 conceded in 10 away matches for Palace at 2.00 a game, against ten in ten at home.
- 8.75 corners a game between the two sides against a line of 9.5 — the second fixture this weekend where the market asks for more than either side produces.
- 4.06 cards a game for Samuel Barrott across 62 Premier League matches, against a career figure of 3.12. His seasons read 3.27, 4.91 and 3.75, so the variation is wider than most.
- 3.05 big chances created a game by Palace against Fulham’s 1.70, and 2.15 missed against 1.10.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Bet Builder Tips
E. Smith Rowe 1+ Foul Drawn — 5 of His Last 6, 8/11
0, 1, 3, 1, 1 and 2 in his last six, at 0.97 per 90 across 1,116 minutes. Fouled in five of six is 83% against an implied 58% — the widest gap on this page.
The single blank came in a full appearance, so it is a genuine miss rather than a short outing.
Palace commit 11.85 fouls a game and make 19.35 tackles, the highest tackling figure in our Premier League data. A midfielder receiving the ball against a side that presses like that is where this market lives, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page covers why the opposition matters as much as the player.
Under 9.5 Corners — 8.75 a Game Between the Sides
Fulham take 5.20 corners a match and Palace 3.55, for 8.75 between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 38% of the time on those figures and the over is priced at 58%.
Palace’s 3.55 is the second-lowest corner figure in our Premier League data, behind only Sunderland’s 3.70. Neither side crosses heavily — 4.30 and 4.25 accurate crosses a game.
This is the second fixture this weekend where the corners line sits above what the two sides produce; Brentford vs Sunderland is the other, at 8.65 against the same 9.5. Our corner predictions page covers both.
J. Mateta Anytime Goalscorer — 0.61 per 90 Regressed, 3/2
Six goals in 756 minutes is 0.71 per 90 raw, which regresses to 0.61 and about 46% against an implied 40%.
Twenty-three shots and twelve on target from 756 minutes is the best strike rate in either squad — a 52% accuracy rate — and he has started each of his last three.
Fulham are the argument against. Four clean sheets in twenty is modest, but they concede 1.10 a game at Craven Cottage against 1.50 away, so the home half of their record is the better one. Our anytime goalscorer tips page explains why we regress a rate off 756 minutes rather than quoting it whole.
Over 2.5 Goals — 60% Between the Two Records
Fulham cleared 2.5 goals in half their matches and Palace in 70%, for about 60% between them against an implied 52%.
Palace have conceded fifteen goals in six Premier League matches and twenty in ten away at 2.00 a game. Their last four league games read 1-4, 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2 — every one produced at least three goals except the Everton defeat.
Fulham are the counterweight: nine blanks in twenty and 0.60 goals a game away from home. But this is at Craven Cottage where they score 1.50, and they have conceded in sixteen of twenty.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 8/11 into a percentage and the market is saying 58%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| E. Smith Rowe 1+ foul drawn | 8/11 | 58% | 83% |
| Under 9.5 corners | Evens | 50% | 62% |
| C. Bassey 2+ fouls drawn | 7/4 | 36% | 50% |
| W. Hughes 2+ fouls drawn | 3/2 | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10/11 | 52% | 60% |
| J. Mateta anytime goalscorer | 3/2 | 40% | 46% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 8/11 | 58% | 54% |
| J. King anytime goalscorer | 3/1 | 25% | 30% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 corners | 8/11 | 58% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 4/6 | 60% | 53% |
| A. Iwobi 2+ shots | 4/5 | 56% | 50% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 7.0%.
Will Hughes is the selection to treat most carefully. His 2.34 fouls drawn per 90 is the highest rate in either squad and it comes off 384 minutes across four appearances — a rate that could move a long way on one more match. He is a pointer rather than one of our four for that reason.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Betting Tips
Four selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Emile Smith Rowe one or more fouls drawn — 8/11. Fouled in five of his last six, with the single blank coming in a full appearance. Palace commit 11.85 fouls a game and make 19.35 tackles, the highest tackling figure in our data.
Under 9.5 corners — Evens. The two sides produce 8.75 between them against a line of 9.5. Palace’s 3.55 is the second-lowest corner figure in our Premier League data and neither side crosses heavily.
Jean-Philippe Mateta anytime goalscorer — 3/2. Six goals in 756 minutes, regressing to 0.61 per 90 and about 46%. Twenty-three shots and twelve on target is the best strike rate in either squad.
Calvin Bassey two or more fouls drawn — 7/4. Three of his last six at 1.65 per 90, from 25 fouls drawn — the highest total at Fulham. A centre-back drawing fouls at that rate comes from carrying the ball out rather than from set pieces.
All four are in our bet builder, and they fail for different reasons: Smith Rowe and Bassey need Palace pressing, Mateta needs Palace scoring, and the corners leg needs the match to stay tight. Smith Rowe and Bassey are both fouls-drawn selections on the same side of the ball, which is the one concentration here.
We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Our model gives Fulham 47%, the draw 24% and Palace 29%. The market says 41.5%, 28.3% and 30.1% — agreement inside six points on every outcome.
That figure uses Palace’s Premier League matches only, and the difference matters. Their last six at this level produced six goals scored and fifteen conceded — 1.00 and 2.50 a game. The twenty-match aggregate of 1.20 and 1.50 is held up by seven European fixtures against Rayo Vallecano and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Weighting all twenty equally would have made this fixture look closer than it is. On the matches actually played at this level, Fulham are the side our figures favour — though nine blanks in twenty and six goals in ten away is not the record of a side you back with confidence either. Betfred are offering £50 in free bets with code BETFRED50 if you want one for it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Premier League betting tips all season
- Corner predictions across the round
- Over 2.5 goals tips this weekend
- Bookmaker reviews compared side by side
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.