Last Updated on 16/05/2026 by Andy Clark
Manchester United welcome Nottingham Forest to Old Trafford in Sunday’s early kick-off. The Red Devils are third in the league, having played one game more than Aston Villa in fourth, who defeated Liverpool on Friday. Forest are 17th, seven points clear of relegation with two games remaining, so are safe.
We’ve targeted Manchester United to win, Matheus Cunha over 0.5 shots on target, Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 shots on target, and Elliot Anderson to be booked for a 15/1 bet builder with BetMGM.
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tip
| Selection | Notes |
|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 8 wins in last 10 home league games, third in the table |
| Matheus Cunha over 0.5 shots on target | 34 SoT in 31 PL appearances this season |
| Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 shots on target | 23 shots on target, 79 shots total — averages 2+ per game |
| Elliot Anderson to be booked | 12 cards this season, 54 fouls in 36 PL matches |
| Combined bet builder | 15/1 with BetMGM |
Stake returns: £10 returns £160. £5 returns £80. £20 returns £320.
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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Match Preview
This is Sunday’s early kick-off and the tactical theme is “end-of-season football with limited jeopardy” — but neither side is treating it as a dead rubber. United are third in the league but with Villa now level on points, the final two matches matter for confirming the Champions League finish. Forest are 17th, seven points clear of relegation, meaning their safety is mathematical with two games remaining.
Man United have had a decent season, losing only seven games in the league so far. They have won six, drawn two and lost two in their last 10 matches. The Old Trafford home form has been particularly strong — eight wins from their last 10 league matches at home is genuinely high-tier home form across this campaign.
Forest have had a poor season in the league, but their wider form across all competitions tells a different story. They were dumped out of the Europa League at the semi-final stage following a 4-0 defeat to Aston Villa last week — but that loss is their only one in their last 10 matches in all competitions. The squad has competed for European football alongside their league commitments, and there’s natural fatigue from that programme.
The motivational dynamic favours United on Sunday. Old Trafford home crowd, third-place security, final home league game of the season — all factors pulling the Red Devils toward a positive performance. Forest’s motivation is harder to pin down: safety is secured, Europa League dream is over, and end-of-season fixtures rarely produce a Forest peak.
For more analysis of this fixture and the wider weekend Premier League card, see our Premier League predictions hub, Paul Merson weekend predictions, Chris Sutton weekend predictions, Jones Knows weekend predictions and our Pundits’ Predictions Comparison.
Jake Gray’s Man Utd vs Nottm Forest Betting Tips
Manchester United to win
With both teams not having much left to play for — given United are secure in third and Forest are safe — I’m backing United to win in their final home match of the season. They’ll want to finish up in style at Old Trafford and give the fans something to celebrate at home.
Home form: They have won eight of their last 10 league matches at home. That’s not a stat reflecting late-season decline — it’s a stat reflecting genuine consistency at Old Trafford across the campaign.
Forest’s attacking limitations: While Forest are in decent form across all competitions, they aren’t prolific at all. Their goal-scoring volume has been the weak link throughout the season, and against United’s home defensive base, generating goals will be difficult.
Motivational gap: Forest are safe, out of Europe, and managing toward the close of the season. United have a Champions League finish to confirm AND a final home game to send fans home happy. The motivation gap matters at this stage of the season.
I can’t see past a United victory at Old Trafford on Sunday. For more on the title race and Premier League finishing positions, see our Premier League predictions hub.
Matheus Cunha over 0.5 shots on target
Matheus Cunha is the first of two United players I’m backing to have one or more shots on target this weekend.
The Brazilian centre forward has bagged nine goals in the league this season in his 31 appearances. In that time, he has had a total of 34 shots on target — an average of more than one shot on target per game.
I expect United to create a decent amount of chances here, and I think there’s a good chance Cunha will have at least one shot on target. The Forest defensive structure has been vulnerable against possession-dominant sides this season, and Old Trafford’s home crowd typically encourages United to push higher and create more.
For more shots on target angles across weekly fixtures, see our daily bet builder tips.
Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 shots on target
The second player I think will have a shot on target is United captain Bruno Fernandes.
The Portugal midfielder has produced some decent numbers this season, with eight goals and 19 assists in his 33 league outings. The 19 assists figure is particularly noteworthy — one off the all-time Premier League single-season record jointly held by Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne.
He has had a total of 79 shots in the league, an average well above two shots per game, showing his willingness to shoot from range. 23 of those shots have been on target, so he averages more than 0.5 per game. The over 0.5 shots on target line at 8/13 is actually below his historic average — generally over 1.5 SoT might be a better-priced market depending on the bookmaker.
I think he will have one or more on target here. For more bet builder construction principles, see our daily bet builder tips.
Elliot Anderson to be booked
The best selection on this bet builder — and the highest-priced individual leg — is taking Elliot Anderson to be booked at strong odds of 19/5. The Nottingham Forest midfielder has been carded 12 times this season, with seven yellow cards in the Premier League and four yellows and one red in the Europa League.
Premier League foul rate: He has made 54 fouls in just 36 matches — an average of more than 1.5 fouls per game. That’s a high foul rate for a midfielder, particularly relative to his position role.
Fouled rate: He has also been fouled 76 times this season, showing he’s always in the midst of the action — central to Forest’s pressing structure and physical defensive game.
Match-up dynamics: That will be no different this Sunday as he comes up against the likes of Casemiro in the middle of the park. Casemiro’s physical presence in midfield typically draws fouls from opposition players trying to break up his play — Anderson is exactly the kind of midfielder who’d commit those fouls.
At 19/5, this is fantastic odds for Anderson to pick up his 13th card of the season this weekend. The card markets are inherently volatile (referees vary in card-issuing patterns, individual match flow matters), but the statistical underpinning is strong.
Alternative Bet — Matheus Cunha to score anytime @ 19/10
Swap the Cunha over 0.5 shots on target leg for Cunha to score anytime at 19/10. His last goal came against Liverpool just two weeks ago, and there’s a decent chance he scores again this weekend. Taking him to score instead of just having a shot on target increases the odds of this bet builder substantially — to roughly 30/1 depending on the bookmaker’s specific Cunha to score price.
Combined Bet Builder Odds — 15/1
Pulling the four selections together gives a 15/1 bet builder. £10 returns £160. £5 returns £80. £20 returns £320.
The bet works because the underlying logic of all four legs is structurally consistent — Manchester United dominant at home, Forest under attacking and defensive pressure, and the specific player statistical patterns reinforcing the overall match dynamic:
- Man United to win (anchor) — home form + motivational gap + Forest’s attacking limitations
- Cunha shots on target — United’s attacking volume at home + Cunha’s per-game SoT rate
- Fernandes shots on target — Captain Bruno’s shot volume + assist-hunting role + United’s possession dominance
- Anderson card — Anderson’s high foul rate + Casemiro match-up + late-season physical fatigue
The 15/1 price reflects the inherent variance in card markets (Anderson card isn’t guaranteed even given his record) and the small-margin risk on the shot-on-target legs in a potentially low-scoring fixture. But the underlying pattern is consistent enough to support the four-leg structure.
For more bet builder construction principles, see our daily bet builder tips.
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Next Read
- Bet Builder Tips Hub
- Premier League Predictions
- Pundits’ Predictions Comparison: Sutton vs Merson vs Jones Knows
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.