Last Updated on 22/05/2026 by Andy Clark
The 2026 Championship Play-Off Final between Hull City and Middlesbrough takes place at Wembley Stadium on Saturday 23rd May 2026, with kick-off at 3:30pm. One place in the Premier League is on the line — and the build-up to this final has been one of the most controversial in Play-Off history.
Below: our 30/1 bet builder for the final, the background to Middlesbrough’s reinstatement, key stats for both sides, and free bets to use on Saturday’s Wembley showpiece.
For more Championship and Play-Off betting, see our bet builder tips hub and football accumulator tips.
Hull City vs Middlesbrough Bet Builder — 30/1 with bet365
Our four-leg bet builder for the Championship Play-Off Final prices up at 30/1 with bet365. The four selections:
| Leg | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough to win in 90 minutes | 10/11 |
| 2 | Joe Gelhardt to be carded | 4/1 |
| 3 | David Strelec over 0.5 shots on target | 4/5 |
| 4 | Lewis Coyle to be carded | 12/5 |
Combined bet builder price: 30/1 with bet365.
A £10 bet builder at 30/1 returns £310. The four legs and the reasoning behind each are below.
Back the 30/1 Bet Builder at bet365 →
Bet Builder Leg 1 — Middlesbrough to Win in 90 Minutes (10/11)
Middlesbrough were arguably unlucky not to progress on the pitch. In the first leg of their semi-final against Southampton, Middlesbrough created 2.24 expected goals (xG) but the match ended 0-0 — a performance that deserved more than it produced.
Both finalists arrive in poor form. Hull City have won only two of their last nine league matches. Middlesbrough have won only two of their last 12. Neither side is hitting form at the right time, which makes this a difficult final to call.
The case for Middlesbrough lies partly in the underlying numbers. Hull overperformed their xG across the league season — despite a total shot tally of 515 (ranking 20th in the division) and an xG of 68.83 (ranking eighth), Hull’s league position outstripped what those underlying numbers suggested. When a team overperforms its xG over a full season, regression often follows — and a Wembley final under maximum pressure is exactly the kind of fixture where underlying quality tends to show.
At 10/11, Middlesbrough to win in 90 minutes anchors the bet builder.
Bet Builder Leg 2 — Joe Gelhardt to Be Carded
Joe Gelhardt has been a regular in the bookings over recent weeks. He has committed 11 fouls in his last six matches and picked up two yellow cards in that run. Even in limited minutes, he attracts referee attention — in the second leg against Millwall, he came off the bench and still committed two fouls in just 12 minutes on the pitch.
Important: check the confirmed starting line-up before placing this bet builder. Gelhardt has been used from the bench in recent matches, and a cards bet on a substitute carries obvious risk. If he starts at Wembley, his foul rate makes a booking a realistic outcome in a high-stakes Play-Off Final where referees typically card more freely. If he is named on the bench, consider this leg lineup-dependent.
Bet Builder Leg 3 — David Strelec Over 0.5 Shots on Target (4/5)
David Strelec did not register a shot on target in either leg of the semi-final against Southampton — a quiet two-game spell against well-organised opposition.
However, before the semi-finals, Strelec was in good form. He scored in each of his last two regular-season matches, recording two shots on target in each of those games. That gives him a baseline of attacking output that the semi-final blanks haven’t entirely erased.
At 4/5 for over 0.5 shots on target — effectively one shot on target across 90 minutes at Wembley — the price reflects a player capable of getting on the scoresheet when the service is there. A return to his pre-semi-final output makes this a reasonable leg.
Bet Builder Leg 4 — Lewis Coyle to Be Carded (12/5)
Lewis Coyle has a strong booking record this season. The Hull defender has picked up six yellow cards in his last 12 Championship matches — a booking every other game.
At Wembley, Coyle is likely to come up against Middlesbrough’s Tommy Conway, a forward who draws a significant number of fouls. Conway has drawn 19 fouls across his last 10 matches — a player who invites defensive challenges and forces defenders into exactly the kind of situations that produce yellow cards.
Coyle’s booking rate, combined with the Conway matchup, makes 12/5 for a Lewis Coyle card a strong value addition to the bet builder.
How Middlesbrough Reached the Final
The route to this final has been extraordinary. Middlesbrough were originally eliminated at the semi-final stage, with Southampton progressing to the Wembley final. However, Southampton were subsequently thrown out of the Play-Offs after it emerged the club had spied on a Middlesbrough training session ahead of the semi-final. Middlesbrough were reinstated to the final in Southampton’s place.
It means Middlesbrough arrive at Wembley having had their season revived through the disciplinary process rather than on the pitch — an unusual position for any Play-Off finalist, and a storyline that has dominated the build-up to Saturday’s match.
Hull City reached the final the conventional way. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg of their semi-final against Millwall, Hull won the second leg 2-0 at The New Den to progress 2-0 on aggregate.
Hull City vs Middlesbrough Key Stats
- Kick-off: 3:30pm, Saturday 23 May 2026, Wembley Stadium
- Hull City semi-final: beat Millwall 2-0 on aggregate (0-0 first leg, 2-0 away win at The New Den)
- Middlesbrough reinstated to the final after Southampton’s expulsion for spying on Middlesbrough’s training
- Hull City form: two wins in last nine league matches
- Middlesbrough form: two wins in last 12 league matches
- Middlesbrough created 2.24 xG in the first leg of their semi-final against Southampton (0-0 result)
- Hull City season totals: 515 total shots (20th in the division), 68.83 xG (8th in the division)
Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction
This is a final between two out-of-form sides, which adds genuine uncertainty. Hull City finished the season as overperformers relative to their underlying numbers — strong league position, but a shot count and xG that ranked lower than where they finished. Middlesbrough, despite their own poor recent form, produced the better underlying performance in the semi-final stage, creating 2.24 xG in a first leg that ended goalless.
In a one-off Wembley final under maximum pressure, underlying quality often tells. Our prediction leans towards Middlesbrough — and the 30/1 bet builder above reflects that view, anchored by Middlesbrough to win in 90 minutes alongside three supporting cards and shots markets.
As always with bet builders, the four-leg combination carries more risk than a single bet. Stake accordingly.
Alternative Bet — Middlesbrough to Win & Both Teams to Score
For punters who want a shorter-priced alternative to the 30/1 bet builder, Middlesbrough to win and both teams to score offers a middle-ground option. It keeps the Middlesbrough win anchor while accepting that two out-of-form-but-attacking sides could both find the net at Wembley.
Get a Free Bet for Hull City vs Middlesbrough
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Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.