Italy vs France Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Italy v France - Nations League predictions and stats
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Italy vs France

Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

ItalyWDWLWW
FranceWDWWLL

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Italy 8 in the Nations League and 12 across two others, France 4 in the Nations League and 16 across three others

Goals

2.00Scored per game2.40
1.30Conceded per game1.00
Home gamesAway games
2.00Scored2.12
1.33Conceded0.75
Correct Score 1-215/2

On the venue splits this projects Italy 1.40 against France 1.84, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.9%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs France, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.73xG for1.94
1.17xG against0.86
+0.27Goals vs xG+0.46
France to Win8/11

France have won 15 of their last 20, drawing 2, and on the road they have scored 2.12 a game and conceded 0.75 across 8 matches.

Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.40 against 1.84, which puts France at about 51% to win, against 23% for the draw.

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Under and Over

85%Over 1.5 goals85%
55%Over 2.5 goals70%
40%Over 3.5 goals45%
Over 2.5 Goals8/13

Italy have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and France in 70%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.

Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, France 2.40 and 1.00. On the venue splits that projects 1.40 against 1.84, about 3.2 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

50%Both teams scored55%
8 of 20Clean sheets8 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score1 of 20
Both Teams to Score8/13

Both teams have scored in 10 of Italy’s last 20 matches and 11 of France’s. Italy concede 1.30 a game and France 1.00.

On the venue splits the projection is 1.40 against 1.84, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.

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Shots

16.70Shots per game18.40
5.60On target per game6.85
33.5%Accuracy37.2%

Corners

5.45Won per game6.45
2.80First half3.70
51.4%Share before the break57.4%
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Cards and Fouls

3.80Cards in the match2.45
1.75Own cards per game1.05
1.10Cards by half time0.70
11.25Fouls committed8.80
Under 3.5 Cards10/11

Italy average 3.80 cards in a match and France 2.45, so 3.12 here. Our numbers make it 62% against the 52% the price implies.

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Shooting Detail

11.65Shots inside the box10.85
5.05Shots outside the box7.55
5.95Off target6.75
5.15Blocked4.80

Big Chances

3.00Big chances created3.35
1.85Big chances missed2.00
38%Taken40%
29.65Touches in the box39.00

Record

12-3-5Won, drawn, lost15-2-3
8 of 20Clean sheets8 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score1 of 20

Possession

53.45%Average share61.95%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Sandro TonaliItaly · M14181.780.631.141.461.331
Alessandro BastoniItaly · D12700.920.281.351.281.637
Nicolo BarellaItaly · M12430.650.071.741.31.884
Mateo ReteguiItaly · F8463.621.381.381.490.740
Federico DimarcoItaly · D8192.090.660.440.550.990
Riccardo CalafioriItaly · D7841.380.340.690.571.490
Moise KeanItaly · F7304.072.10.861.730.742
Francesco Pio EspositoItaly · F7103.82.281.773.040.631
Davide FrattesiItaly · M6902.480.520.781.571.573
Manuel LocatelliItaly · M5081.060.182.660.712.480
Matteo PolitanoItaly · D4861.480.190.191.670.740
Andrea CambiasoItaly · D4731.140.570.380.761.331
Michael OliseFrance · M13382.891.350.611.881.681
Dayot UpamecanoFrance · D12960.490.140.830.281.672
Kylian MbappeFrance · F11435.832.60.711.020.311
Adrien RabiotFrance · M10831.580.331.661.331.662
Lucas DigneFrance · D8080.890.221.230.671.110
William SalibaFrance · D7950.110.01.020.00.570
Desire DoueFrance · F7623.312.010.711.062.481
Manu KoneFrance · M7390.970.241.712.071.583
Bradley BarcolaFrance · F6662.31.081.080.410.811
Theo HernandezFrance · D6321.140.00.711.710.850
Rayan CherkiFrance · M6262.010.721.152.161.010
Aurelien TchouameniFrance · M5450.990.170.830.993.81
Malo GustoFrance · D4720.380.191.531.142.860

Advised props

Moise Kean 1+ Shots on Target

Moise Kean has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 10 for Italy, at 2.1 per 90 across 730 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.

Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.6 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Kylian Mbappe 3+ Shots on Target

Kylian Mbappe has had 3 or more shots on target in 5 of his last 10 for France, at 2.6 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.

France take 18.4 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.

2/1Add
Lucas Digne 1+ Fouls Committed

Lucas Digne has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for France, at 1.23 per 90 across 808 minutes, and he averages 73 minutes a game when he plays.

Italy hold 53.45% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Fouls Committed

Alessandro Bastoni has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.35 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.

France hold 61.95% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.

6/4Add
Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer

Kylian Mbappe has scored in 7 of his last 10 for France, at 1.18 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.

France score 2.40 a game. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.

5/6Add

Trends

Window shown per line
6/6100%Italy · Last six at homeItaly have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six at home.
18/2090%Italy · Last 20Italy have scored in 18 of their last twenty.
17/2085%Italy · Last 20Italy have gone past one and a half goals in 17 of their last twenty.
6/6100%France · Last six awayFrance have scored in every one of their last six on the road.
6/6100%France · Last six awayFrance have won in every one of their last six on the road.
6/6100%France · Last six awayFrance are unbeaten in every one of their last six on the road.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Italy

05 OctTurkiye (H)3-1W
02 OctFrance (A)1-1D
28 SepTurkiye (A)4-1W
25 SepBelgium (H)0-2L
07 JunGreece (A)1-0W
03 JunLuxembourg (A)1-0W

France

05 OctBelgium (H)4-1W
02 OctItaly (H)1-1D
28 SepBelgium (A)1-0W
25 SepTurkiye (A)1-0W
18 JulEngland (H)4-6L
14 JulSpain (H)0-2L
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Build Your Own Italy vs France Bet

Moise Kean 1+ Shots on Target
Why this betMoise Kean has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 10 for Italy, at 2.1 per 90 across 730 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.6 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Kylian Mbappe 3+ Shots on Target2/13.00
Why this betKylian Mbappe has had 3 or more shots on target in 5 of his last 10 for France, at 2.6 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.France take 18.4 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.
Lucas Digne 1+ Fouls Committed
Why this betLucas Digne has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for France, at 1.23 per 90 across 808 minutes, and he averages 73 minutes a game when he plays.Italy hold 53.45% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Fouls Committed6/42.50
Why this betAlessandro Bastoni has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.35 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.France hold 61.95% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.
Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer5/61.83
Why this betKylian Mbappe has scored in 7 of his last 10 for France, at 1.18 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.France score 2.40 a game. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.
Alessandro Bastoni to be Carded3/14.00
Why this betAlessandro Bastoni has been booked in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.5 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Italy pick up 1.75 cards a game and there are 3.8 in their matches. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 25% implied by 3/1.
Nicolo Barella to be Carded7/24.50
Why this betNicolo Barella has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.29 per 90 across 1,243 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Italy pick up 1.75 cards a game and there are 3.8 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 22% implied by 7/2.
France to Win8/111.73
Why this betFrance have won 15 of their last 20, drawing 2, and on the road they have scored 2.12 a game and conceded 0.75 across 8 matches.Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.40 against 1.84, which puts France at about 51% to win, against 23% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score8/131.62
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 10 of Italy’s last 20 matches and 11 of France’s. Italy concede 1.30 a game and France 1.00.On the venue splits the projection is 1.40 against 1.84, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.
Over 2.5 Goals8/131.62
Why this betItaly have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and France in 70%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, France 2.40 and 1.00. On the venue splits that projects 1.40 against 1.84, about 3.2 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.
Correct Score 1-215/28.50
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Italy 1.40 against France 1.84, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.9%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs France, which is where the board has the match too.
France to Win and Both Teams to Score11/53.20
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: France to win is about 51% and both teams scoring about 58%. France score 2.40 a game and concede 1.00, and Italy have scored in 10 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 11/5.
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