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Italy vs France kicks off at 7.45pm on Thursday 12th November in the UEFA Nations League, and our bet builder for it pays 87/1 at bet365. Our numbers make over 2.5 goals about 63% and both teams to score about 58%.

The build is five legs drawn from the both teams to score, card, fouls, shots on target and total goals markets. The one it leans on is Over 2.5 Goals — 63% on our numbers.

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Italy vs France Bet Builder

Kylian Mbappé 3+ Shot on Target

Kylian Mbappé has had 3 or more shots on target in 5 of his last 10 for France, at 2.6 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.

France take 18.4 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.

Shots on TargetKylian Mbappé 3+ Shot on Target2/1

Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Foul Committed

Alessandro Bastoni has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.35 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.

France hold 61.95% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.

FoulsAlessandro Bastoni 2+ Foul Committed6/4

Nicolò Barella to be Carded

Nicolò Barella has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.29 per 90 across 1,243 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

Italy pick up 1.75 cards a game and there are 3.8 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 22% implied by 7/2.

CardNicolò Barella to be Carded7/2

Over 2.5 Goals

Italy have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and France in 70%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.

Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, France 2.40 and 1.00. On the venue splits that projects 1.40 against 1.84, about 3.2 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.

Total GoalsOver 2.5 Goals8/13

Both Teams to Score

Both teams have scored in 10 of Italy’s last 20 matches and 11 of France’s. Italy concede 1.30 a game and France 1.00.

On the venue splits the projection is 1.40 against 1.84, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.

Both Teams to ScoreBoth Teams to Score8/13

Italy vs France Bet Builder Tip

1	Kylian Mbappé 3+ Shot on Target5 of his last 10, 2.6 per 90 Why this Leg Kylian Mbappé has had 3 or more shots on target in 5 of his last 10 for France, at 2.6 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays. France take 18.4 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.
2	Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Foul Committed5 of his last 10, 1.35 per 90 Why this Leg Alessandro Bastoni has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.35 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays. France hold 61.95% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.
3	Nicolò Barella to be Carded3 of his last 10, 0.29 per 90 Why this Leg Nicolò Barella has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.29 per 90 across 1,243 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays. Italy pick up 1.75 cards a game and there are 3.8 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 22% implied by 7/2.
4	Over 2.5 Goals63% on our numbers Why this Leg Italy have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and France in 70%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5. Italy average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded, France 2.40 and 1.00. On the venue splits that projects 1.40 against 1.84, about 3.2 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.
5	Both Teams to Score58% on our numbers Why this Leg Both teams have scored in 10 of Italy's last 20 matches and 11 of France's. Italy concede 1.30 a game and France 1.00. On the venue splits the projection is 1.40 against 1.84, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.
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Today’s Football Betting Tips

8matches liveNations League Tips 8matches liveBet Builder Tips 3tips liveCards Tips 4tips liveBoth Teams to Score Tips 2tips liveBoth Teams to Score & Win Tips 15tips liveShots on Target Tips 3tips liveCorners Tips 6tips liveTotal Goals Tips 3tips liveAnytime Scorer Tips 7tips liveAccumulator Tips 8tips liveCorrect Score Tips

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Andy Clark

Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.