Luxembourg vs Estonia Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Luxembourg v Estonia - Nations League predictions and stats
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Luxembourg vs Estonia

Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

LuxembourgLLLWWL
EstoniaDWDDLD

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Luxembourg 8 in the Nations League and 12 across two others, Estonia 8 in the Nations League and 12 across three others

Goals

0.65Scored per game0.90
1.40Conceded per game1.60
Home gamesAway games
0.58Scored1.00
1.33Conceded1.82
Correct Score 1-05/1

On the venue splits this projects Luxembourg 1.07 against Estonia 1.06, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 12.6%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Luxembourg, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

0.66xG for0.68
1.41xG against1.46
-0.01Goals vs xG+0.22

Under and Over

55%Over 1.5 goals65%
35%Over 2.5 goals45%
20%Over 3.5 goals35%
Under 2.5 Goals1/2

Luxembourg have stayed under 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches and Estonia in 55%, with just 20% and 35% of their matches going past 3.5.

Luxembourg average 0.65 scored and 1.40 conceded, Estonia 0.90 and 1.60. On the venue splits that projects 1.07 against 1.06, about 2.1 goals in the match and 62% for under 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

20%Both teams scored50%
5 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
12 of 20Failed to score9 of 20

Shots

9.89Shots per game7.88
3.33On target per game3.00
33.7%Accuracy38.1%

Corners

3.67Won per game2.81
1.72First half1.94
46.9%Share before the break69.0%
Under 7.5 Corners1/1

Luxembourg win 3.67 corners a game and Estonia 2.81, with 1.72 and 1.94 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 6 in the match, a 68% chance of 7 or fewer against the 50% implied by 1/1.

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Cards and Fouls

4.78Cards in the match4.19
2.67Own cards per game2.38
1.44Cards by half time1.31
13.56Fouls committed14.62

Shooting Detail

5.67Shots inside the box4.12
4.22Shots outside the box3.75
3.67Off target2.75
2.89Blocked2.12

Big Chances

1.50Big chances created1.06
1.00Big chances missed0.56
33%Taken47%
15.33Touches in the box11.75

Record

5-2-13Won, drawn, lost4-7-9
5 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
12 of 20Failed to score9 of 20

Possession

50.39%Average share39.25%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Laurent JansLuxembourg · D12620.360.00.860.571.854
Florian BohnertLuxembourg · D12500.140.01.30.431.374
Danel SinaniLuxembourg · M12102.60.742.451.340.897
Leandro BarreiroLuxembourg · M11940.380.151.733.471.283
Seid KoracLuxembourg · D11461.10.311.410.472.513
Mathias OlesenLuxembourg · M10490.940.510.940.860.513
Tomas de Sousa MoreiraLuxembourg · M10270.960.531.140.530.353
Aiman DardariLuxembourg · F9761.570.651.110.830.830
Christopher MartinsLuxembourg · M8750.720.11.951.751.652
Enes MahmutovicLuxembourg · D7990.230.111.350.91.583
Vincent ThillLuxembourg · M5983.011.051.051.963.460
Marvin MartinsLuxembourg · D4250.210.00.641.060.641
Michael Schjonning-LarsenEstonia · D13340.340.070.610.880.881
Maksim PaskotsiEstonia · D11890.910.451.210.081.213
Mattias KaitEstonia · M9981.350.811.261.441.441
Vlasiy SinyavskiyEstonia · D9930.540.180.450.821.181
Marten KuuskEstonia · D8850.10.01.220.921.222
Karol MetsEstonia · D8380.110.01.830.541.295
Kevor PalumetsEstonia · M8100.560.330.560.331.112
Rasmus PeetsonEstonia · D7470.840.721.810.962.655
Rocco Robert SheinEstonia · F6391.130.281.410.71.412
Patrik KristalEstonia · M6231.30.142.462.461.882
Markus PoomEstonia · M6151.170.01.020.291.611
Ioan YakovlevEstonia · M5461.320.330.660.991.320
Markus SoometsEstonia · M5000.180.02.160.541.441
Alex Matthias TammEstonia · F4720.950.192.861.530.952
Joseph SalisteEstonia · D4700.00.00.960.572.491
Robi SaarmaEstonia · F4451.620.612.221.211.620
Rauno SappinenEstonia · F4231.491.492.130.850.851

Advised props

Aiman Dardari 1+ Shots

Aiman Dardari has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Luxembourg, at 1.57 per 90 across 976 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Luxembourg take 9.89 shots a game and hit 3.33 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Karol Mets 1+ Fouls Committed

Karol Mets has committed a foul in 10 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 1.83 per 90 across 838 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.

Luxembourg hold 50.39% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Danel Sinani to be Carded

Danel Sinani has been booked in 6 of his last 10 for Luxembourg, at 0.52 per 90 across 1,210 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.

Luxembourg pick up 2.67 cards a game and there are 4.78 in their matches. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Trends

Window shown per line
0/60%Luxembourg · Last sixLuxembourg have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Luxembourg · Last six at homeLuxembourg have won six or more corners in 0 of their last six at home.
0/60%Estonia · Last sixEstonia have gone past two and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Estonia · Last sixEstonia have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Luxembourg

06 OctBulgaria (H)0-2L
03 OctEstonia (A)0-1L
29 SepIceland (H)0-3L
26 SepBulgaria (A)2-1W
06 JunAlbania (A)1-0W
03 JunItaly (H)0-1L

Estonia

06 OctIceland (H)0-0D
03 OctLuxembourg (H)1-0W
29 SepBulgaria (A)0-0D
26 SepIceland (A)1-1D
30 MarRwanda (A)0-2L
27 MarKenya (A)1-1D
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Build Your Own Luxembourg vs Estonia Bet

Aiman Dardari 1+ Shots
Why this betAiman Dardari has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Luxembourg, at 1.57 per 90 across 976 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Luxembourg take 9.89 shots a game and hit 3.33 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Karol Mets 1+ Fouls Committed
Why this betKarol Mets has committed a foul in 10 of his last 10 for Estonia, at 1.83 per 90 across 838 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.Luxembourg hold 50.39% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Danel Sinani to be Carded
Why this betDanel Sinani has been booked in 6 of his last 10 for Luxembourg, at 0.52 per 90 across 1,210 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.Luxembourg pick up 2.67 cards a game and there are 4.78 in their matches. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Under 7.5 Corners1/12.00
Why this betLuxembourg win 3.67 corners a game and Estonia 2.81, with 1.72 and 1.94 of those in the first half.That leaves about 6 in the match, a 68% chance of 7 or fewer against the 50% implied by 1/1.
Under 2.5 Goals1/21.50
Why this betLuxembourg have stayed under 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches and Estonia in 55%, with just 20% and 35% of their matches going past 3.5.Luxembourg average 0.65 scored and 1.40 conceded, Estonia 0.90 and 1.60. On the venue splits that projects 1.07 against 1.06, about 2.1 goals in the match and 62% for under 2.5.
Correct Score 1-05/16.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Luxembourg 1.07 against Estonia 1.06, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 12.6%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Luxembourg, which is where the board has the match too.
Over 2.5 Goals6/42.50
Why this betLuxembourg are expected 1.20 at home and Estonia 1.17 away, so 2.37 in the match. Our numbers make it 42% against the 40% the price implies.
Both Teams to Score11/102.10
Why this betBoth sides are expected to score – 1.20 and 1.17. Our numbers make it 48% against the 48% the price implies.
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