Bulgaria vs Iceland Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Andy Clark
Bulgaria v Iceland - Nations League predictions and stats
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Bulgaria vs Iceland

Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Bulgaria 8 in the Nations League and 12 across three others, Iceland 7 in the Nations League and 13 across two others

Goals

1.25Scored per game1.45
2.00Conceded per game1.70
Home gamesAway games
0.89Scored1.00
2.00Conceded1.64
Correct Score 0-111/2

On the venue splits this projects Bulgaria 1.39 against Iceland 1.54, and 0-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.8%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Iceland, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

0.60xG for1.03
1.71xG against1.36
+0.65Goals vs xG+0.42

Under and Over

80%Over 1.5 goals85%
65%Over 2.5 goals65%
30%Over 3.5 goals40%
Over 2.5 Goals11/10

Bulgaria are expected 1.27 at home and Iceland 1.50 away, so 2.77 in the match. Our numbers make it 52% against the 48% the price implies.

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Both Teams to Score

45%Both teams scored50%
4 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
8 of 20Failed to score6 of 20
Both Teams to Score1/1

Both sides are expected to score – 1.27 and 1.50. Our numbers make it 56% against the 50% the price implies.

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Shots

7.64Shots per game9.63
2.71On target per game3.84
35.5%Accuracy39.9%

Corners

2.64Won per game3.79
0.86First half1.74
32.6%Share before the break45.9%
Under 7.5 Corners1/1

Bulgaria win 2.64 corners a game and Iceland 3.79, with 0.86 and 1.74 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 6 in the match, a 68% chance of 7 or fewer against the 50% implied by 1/1.

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Cards and Fouls

4.57Cards in the match4.21
2.36Own cards per game2.21
2.14Cards by half time1.16
12.00Fouls committed10.79

Shooting Detail

4.64Shots inside the box6.26
3.00Shots outside the box3.37
3.07Off target3.84
1.86Blocked1.95

Big Chances

1.07Big chances created1.95
0.71Big chances missed0.95
34%Taken51%
11.71Touches in the box16.74

Record

5-4-11Won, drawn, lost5-5-10
4 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
8 of 20Failed to score6 of 20

Possession

38.93%Average share50.42%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Ilia GruevBulgaria · M9080.30.10.791.291.191
Andrian KraevBulgaria · M6471.390.142.640.971.672
Kristian DimitrovBulgaria · D6410.420.140.70.560.562
Marin PetkovBulgaria · F6391.970.851.132.962.542
Kiril DespodovBulgaria · F5230.690.341.030.520.691
Filip KrastevBulgaria · M4800.940.190.752.443.380
Fabian NurnbergerBulgaria · D4480.40.20.61.211.211
Radoslav KirilovBulgaria · M4051.110.220.670.00.891
Isak Bergmann JohannessonIceland · M13310.880.471.080.612.54
Hakon Arnar HaraldssonIceland · F13190.610.21.021.711.571
Victor PalssonIceland · D13111.030.481.030.481.032
Mikael EllertssonIceland · D13020.90.211.181.451.84
Andri GuðjohnsenIceland · M10831.660.661.01.580.583
Sverrir IngasonIceland · D10670.340.080.840.342.360
Daniel GretarssonIceland · D10190.180.01.320.621.322
Jon Dagur ÞorsteinssonIceland · M8991.40.71.41.91.54
Albert GuðmundssonIceland · M8531.370.630.741.790.211
Stefan Teitur ÞorðarsonIceland · D7000.390.00.640.92.062
Orri OskarssonIceland · F6752.81.871.20.670.130
Logi TomassonIceland · D5811.080.311.70.621.082
Horður MagnussonIceland · D5760.310.02.190.780.941
Kristian HlynssonIceland · M4161.080.431.080.871.31

Advised props

Mikael Ellertsson 1+ Shots

Mikael Ellertsson has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Iceland, at 0.9 per 90 across 1,302 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Iceland take 9.63 shots a game and hit 3.84 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Orri Oskarsson 1+ Shots on Target

Orri Oskarsson has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 9 for Iceland, at 1.87 per 90 across 675 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Iceland take 9.63 shots a game and hit 3.84 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Daniel Gretarsson 1+ Fouls Committed

Daniel Gretarsson has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 for Iceland, at 1.32 per 90 across 1,019 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

Bulgaria hold 38.93% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Orri Oskarsson Anytime Goalscorer

Orri Oskarsson has scored in 5 of his last 9 for Iceland, at 0.93 per 90 across 675 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Iceland score 1.45 a game. That is about 56% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.

15/8Add

Trends

Window shown per line
0/50%Bulgaria · Last six at homeBulgaria have committed twelve or more fouls in 0 of their last six at home.
2/1414%Bulgaria · Last 20Bulgaria have won six or more corners in two of their last twenty.
1/617%Bulgaria · Last sixBulgaria have gone past three and a half goals in one of their last six.
0/60%Iceland · Last sixIceland have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Iceland · Last sixIceland have seen eleven or more corners in the match in 0 of their last six.
0/50%Iceland · Last six awayIceland have seen eleven or more corners in the match in 0 of their last six on the road.
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Build Your Own Bulgaria vs Iceland Bet

Mikael Ellertsson 1+ Shots
Why this betMikael Ellertsson has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 for Iceland, at 0.9 per 90 across 1,302 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Iceland take 9.63 shots a game and hit 3.84 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Orri Oskarsson 1+ Shots on Target
Why this betOrri Oskarsson has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 9 for Iceland, at 1.87 per 90 across 675 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Iceland take 9.63 shots a game and hit 3.84 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Daniel Gretarsson 1+ Fouls Committed
Why this betDaniel Gretarsson has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 for Iceland, at 1.32 per 90 across 1,019 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Bulgaria hold 38.93% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Orri Oskarsson Anytime Goalscorer15/82.88
Why this betOrri Oskarsson has scored in 5 of his last 9 for Iceland, at 0.93 per 90 across 675 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Iceland score 1.45 a game. That is about 56% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.
Under 7.5 Corners1/12.00
Why this betBulgaria win 2.64 corners a game and Iceland 3.79, with 0.86 and 1.74 of those in the first half.That leaves about 6 in the match, a 68% chance of 7 or fewer against the 50% implied by 1/1.
Correct Score 0-111/26.50
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Bulgaria 1.39 against Iceland 1.54, and 0-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.8%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Iceland, which is where the board has the match too.
Both Teams to Score1/12.00
Why this betBoth sides are expected to score – 1.27 and 1.50. Our numbers make it 56% against the 50% the price implies.
Over 2.5 Goals11/102.10
Why this betBulgaria are expected 1.27 at home and Iceland 1.50 away, so 2.77 in the match. Our numbers make it 52% against the 48% the price implies.
No legs selected

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