On the venue splits this projects Netherlands 1.76 against Greece 1.05, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.2%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Netherlands, which is where the board has the match too.

Netherlands have won 12 of their last 20, drawing 7, and at home they have scored 2.54 a game and conceded 0.85 across 13 matches.

Greece average 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded. The venue splits project 1.76 against 1.05, which puts Netherlands at about 57% to win, against 23% for the draw.

Netherlands have gone past 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches and Greece in 60%, with 95% and 65% going past 1.5.

Netherlands average 2.50 scored and 0.90 conceded, Greece 1.50 and 1.20. On the venue splits that projects 1.76 against 1.05, about 2.8 goals in the match and 58% for over 2.5.

Both teams have scored in 14 of Netherlands’ last 20 matches and 8 of Greece’s. Netherlands concede 0.90 a game and Greece 1.20.

On the venue splits the projection is 1.76 against 1.05, which puts both teams scoring at about 54%.

Netherlands win 5.95 corners a game and Greece 5.0, with 3.1 and 2.82 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 11 in the match, a 76% chance of 9 or more against the 60% implied by 4/6.

Netherlands average 2.40 cards in a match and Greece 3.59, so 3.00 here. Our numbers make it 82% against the 55% the price implies.