On the venue splits this projects Scotland 1.58 against North Macedonia 0.97, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 11.9%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Scotland, which is where the board has the match too.

Scotland have won 9 of their last 20, drawing 2, and at home they have scored 1.25 a game and conceded 1.83 across 12 matches.

North Macedonia average 0.80 scored and 1.50 conceded. The venue splits project 1.58 against 0.97, which puts Scotland at about 65% to win, against 25% for the draw.

Both teams have scored in 7 of Scotland’s last 20 matches and 5 of North Macedonia’s. Scotland have kept 7 clean sheets in that run and failed to score in 8, against 9 and 10 for North Macedonia.

At home Scotland score 1.25 a game and concede 1.83; away from home North Macedonia score 0.55 and concede 2.00. That puts at least one side blanking at about 60%.

Scotland win 4.9 corners a game and North Macedonia 3.05, with 1.8 and 1.74 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 7 in the match, a 66% chance of 8 or fewer against the 56% implied by 4/5.