Our QPR vs Cardiff bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from two sides the market cannot separate and our figures can, and we have four best bets ranging from 10/11 to 11/4. QPR have failed to score in nine of twenty.
Cardiff have won nine and lost four — seventeen of those matches in League One. Cian Ashford has had three or more shots in four of his last six.
Queens Park Rangers vs Cardiff City
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Seventeen of Cardiff’s were played in League One. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
QPR vs Cardiff Key Stats and Insights
- 9 blanks in 20 for QPR, the highest failed-to-score count in our Championship data, with three clean sheets.
- 17 of Cardiff’s 20 matches were League One fixtures. Their 65% possession, 18.5 shots and 2.5 goals a game away were mostly earned a division below.
- 8.35 corners a game for Cardiff against QPR’s 4.75, with 4.40 in the first half against 1.90.
- 4 of 6 for Cian Ashford having three or more shots, at 11/4 — 67% against an implied 27%.
- 4.55 cards a game for Tim Robinson across 20 Championship matches in his last three seasons, against a career figure of 3.18 — a correction of 1.37.
- 7 players in our tables have no price, including three QPR regulars who played 90 minutes in each of their last three.
- 34.65 touches in the box for Cardiff against QPR’s 21.35, the widest gap on any page this week.
QPR vs Cardiff Bet Builder Tips
C. Ashford 3+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 11/4
2, 3, 1, 6, 4 and 3 in his last six, at 3.51 per 90 across 820 minutes. Four of six clearing three is 67% against an implied 27% — the widest gap on this page.
Thirty-two shots is the highest total in either squad and it comes from the smallest attacking sample here. That rate is the highest we have recorded from a Championship winger this season, and he has started 85, 59 and 80 minutes in his last three.
The 1.5 line at 10/11 gives five of six against an implied 52% and is the firmer version — a pointer above. Cardiff take 8.35 corners a game against QPR’s 4.75 and 34.65 touches in the box against 21.35, so the volume should be there. Our Championship tips pages lean on shots because bet365 price no fouls or tackles at this level.
Over 3.5 Cards — 4.12 Blended, 4/6
QPR matches averaged 3.90 cards and Cardiff’s 3.50, for 3.70 between them. QPR take 1.95 of their own a game and commit 11.25 fouls to Cardiff’s 8.85.
Tim Robinson is what lifts it. He books 4.55 a game across 20 Championship matches in his last three seasons against a career figure of 3.18 — a correction of 1.37, and the highest referee figure on any Championship page this week.
Blended the fixture lands around 4.12, which makes four or more cards a 59% shot against an implied 60%. Accurate rather than generous, and the record is the reason to take it. Our referee card stats page carries the full list of officials and their real rates.
Over 2.5 Goals — 60% Between the Two Records
QPR cleared 2.5 goals in 65% of their matches and Cardiff in 55%, for about 60% between them against an implied 58%.
The price has moved from 2.000 to 1.727 since the market opened, the sharpest goals move we have recorded. Money has come for goals and our figures agree with it.
Cardiff take 18.50 shots a game and 34.65 touches in the box, against QPR’s 13.60 and 21.35. Seventeen of those Cardiff matches were League One fixtures, which is the caution on the number rather than on the direction.
Both Teams to Score — 11 of QPR’s Last 20, 12 of Cardiff’s
About 58% between them against an implied 60% at 5/6.
QPR are the half to worry about. Nine blanks in twenty is the highest failed-to-score count in our Championship data, and they scored 1.40 a game at home.
Cardiff scoring is close to a formality at three blanks in twenty — though that record is a League One one. QPR conceded 1.70 a game at Loftus Road and kept three clean sheets all season, which is what the yes side rests on.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 11/4 into a percentage and the market is saying 27%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — goals per 90, or how often he has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ashford 3+ shots | 11/4 | 27% | 67% |
| O. Tanner 2+ shots | 5/4 | 44% | 83% |
| C. Ashford 2+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 83% |
| H. Vale 3+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 67% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Salech anytime goalscorer | 7/4 | 36% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 cards | 4/6 | 60% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/11 | 58% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | 5/6 | 60% | 58% |
And the one priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| R. Kolli anytime goalscorer | 7/5 | 42% | 34% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.8% across the three match result outcomes. So a fair price will still look slightly against us.
Tim Robinson books 4.55 a game — the highest referee figure on any Championship page this week — and the two sides average 3.70 between them. Blended that gives 4.12, which makes four or more cards a 59% shot against a price implying 60%. Accurate rather than generous, which is why it sits in the middle table.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 11/4, 4/6, 8/11 and 5/6, which compounds to around 22/1.
This was three shots legs and it should not have been. Ashford, Vale and Tanner all clearing their lines needs the same thing — an open match with volume at both ends — so three legs were one bet at the price of three. Vale and Tanner stay as singles above.
Ashford keeps his place because 3.51 shots per 90 is the highest rate we have logged from a Championship winger and the gap to the price is the widest here. The other three now come from cards, goals and both teams to score, which fail for different reasons.
Tim Robinson books 4.55 a game, the highest referee figure on any Championship page this week, and the two sides take 13.10 corners between them. Our bet builder tips page explains why spreading across mechanisms beats stacking one.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 11/4 into a percentage and the market is saying 27%. We work out the same number from the player’s own record — goals per 90, or how often he has cleared a line in his last six — and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ashford 3+ shots | 11/4 | 27% | 67% |
| O. Tanner 2+ shots | 5/4 | 44% | 83% |
| C. Ashford 2+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 83% |
| H. Vale 3+ shots | 10/11 | 52% | 67% |
The ones where the two agree:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Salech anytime goalscorer | 7/4 | 36% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 cards | 4/6 | 60% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/11 | 58% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | 5/6 | 60% | 58% |
And the one priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| R. Kolli anytime goalscorer | 7/5 | 42% | 34% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 6.8% across the three match result outcomes. So a fair price will still look slightly against us.
Tim Robinson books 4.55 a game — the highest referee figure on any Championship page this week — and the two sides average 3.70 between them. Blended that gives 4.12, which makes four or more cards a 59% shot against a price implying 60%. Accurate rather than generous, which is why it sits in the middle table.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 11/4, 4/6, 8/11 and 5/6, which compounds to around 22/1.
This was three shots legs and it should not have been. Ashford, Vale and Tanner all clearing their lines needs the same thing — an open match with volume at both ends — so three legs were one bet at the price of three. Vale and Tanner stay as singles above.
Ashford keeps his place because 3.51 shots per 90 is the highest rate we have logged from a Championship winger and the gap to the price is the widest here. The other three now come from cards, goals and both teams to score, which fail for different reasons.
Tim Robinson books 4.55 a game, the highest referee figure on any Championship page this week, and the two sides take 13.10 corners between them. Our bet builder tips page explains why spreading across mechanisms beats stacking one.
QPR vs Cardiff Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 49.0% QPR, 26.0% the draw and 25.0% Cardiff, and that is the figure we are publishing.
Our model has Cardiff at 47% and QPR at 30% — a twenty-two point gap on the away side, and the cause is in the pull rather than the method.
Seventeen of Cardiff’s twenty matches were League One fixtures. Their 65% possession, 18.5 shots a game and 2.5 goals away were earned a division below and do not describe a Championship trip to Loftus Road. It is the same case as Bolton at Sheffield United last night.
QPR are the harder read. Nine blanks in twenty is the highest failed-to-score count in our Championship data and they have three clean sheets, yet the market makes them clear favourites at home. Betfred are offering £50 in free bets with code BETFRED50 if you want one for it.
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More Championship and Betting Tips
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.