Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis Predictions and Stats

Andy Clark
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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 · Champions League

Borussia DortmundDWWDLD
Real BetisWDWLWW
Our predictionDiego Llorente to be Carded10/3

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Borussia Dortmund 17 in the Bundesliga and 3 in the Champions League, Real Betis 17 in La Liga and 3 in the Champions League

Goals

1.80Scored per game1.80
0.90Conceded per game1.35
Home gamesAway games
2.30Scored1.50
0.90Conceded1.75

Expected Goals

1.97xG for1.64
1.30xG against1.57
-0.17Goals vs xG+0.16

Under and Over

70%Over 1.5 goals70%
50%Over 2.5 goals60%
35%Over 3.5 goals35%
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Both Teams to Score

40%Both teams scored65%
9 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20
4 of 20Failed to score1 of 20

Shots

14.35Shots per game16.55
5.25On target per game5.95
36.6%Accuracy36.0%

Corners

6.05Won per game5.10
2.95First half2.80
48.8%Share before the break54.9%
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Cards and Fouls

3.45Cards in the match3.90
1.80Own cards per game1.70
1.30Cards by half time1.05
10.85Fouls committed10.45

Shooting Detail

10.35Shots inside the box9.55
4.00Shots outside the box7.00
5.90Off target6.25
3.25Blocked4.35

Big Chances

3.50Big chances created2.40
2.20Big chances missed1.35
37%Taken44%
29.65Touches in the box27.30

Record

13-3-4Won, drawn, lost13-4-3
9 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20
4 of 20Failed to score1 of 20

Possession

53.75%Average share51.10%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Waldemar AntonBorussia Dortmund · D18000.40.11.00.652.52
Julian RyersonBorussia Dortmund · D15070.360.061.020.960.725
Serhou GuirassyBorussia Dortmund · F14623.881.911.171.480.02
Daniel SvenssonBorussia Dortmund · D14420.370.120.691.121.691
Jobe BellinghamBorussia Dortmund · F14391.00.311.060.632.54
Nico SchlotterbeckBorussia Dortmund · D14270.760.190.760.952.213
Maximilian BeierBorussia Dortmund · D13602.250.461.321.191.592
Felix NmechaBorussia Dortmund · M10261.930.791.141.581.581
Marcel SabitzerBorussia Dortmund · M9620.840.191.120.941.681
Joane GadouBorussia Dortmund · D7990.230.110.560.02.252
Fabio SilvaBorussia Dortmund · F6583.281.641.641.230.411
Ramy BensebainiBorussia Dortmund · D6361.70.420.990.991.561
Joey VeermanBorussia Dortmund · M6261.150.431.150.582.012
Carney ChukwuemekaBorussia Dortmund · F4711.150.00.961.721.721
Samuele InacioBorussia Dortmund · F4391.641.032.051.851.442
Luca ReggianiBorussia Dortmund · D4300.420.210.420.422.092
Ethan NwaneriBorussia Dortmund · M4183.661.511.080.00.651
Julian BrandtBorussia Dortmund · M4002.480.680.450.00.680
NatanReal Betis · D14240.510.060.510.381.334
Hector BellerinReal Betis · D14000.580.260.640.261.612
AntonyReal Betis · F13484.541.471.141.341.81
Abdessamad EzzalzouliReal Betis · F12952.851.110.831.951.811
Pablo FornalsReal Betis · M12451.880.361.160.80.80
Marc RocaReal Betis · M11490.940.311.80.782.193
IscoReal Betis · M9423.061.341.432.10.860
Fran GarciaReal Betis · D9400.290.10.571.053.541
Diego LlorenteReal Betis · D7950.230.111.020.451.924
Valentin GomezReal Betis · D7480.240.240.960.361.21
Marc BartraReal Betis · D7471.691.080.120.362.170
Rodrigo RiquelmeReal Betis · F6612.180.820.951.911.51
Nelson DeossaReal Betis · M6473.620.832.231.672.092
Troy ParrottReal Betis · F5672.380.790.791.110.950

Advised props

Diego Llorente to be Carded

Diego Llorente has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Real Betis, at 0.45 per 90 across 795 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.

Real Betis pick up 1.7 cards a game and there are 3.9 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 23% implied by 10/3.

10/3Add
Waldemar Anton 2+ Fouls Committed

Waldemar Anton has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Borussia Dortmund, at 1.0 per 90 across 1,800 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.

Real Betis hold 51.1% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 27% implied by 11/4.

11/4Add
Felix Nmecha 1+ Shots on Target

Felix Nmecha has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Borussia Dortmund, at 0.79 per 90 across 1,026 minutes, and he averages 68 minutes a game when he plays.

Borussia Dortmund take 14.35 shots a game and hit 5.25 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 38% implied by 13/8.

13/8Add

Trends

Window shown per line
6/6100%Borussia Dortmund · Last six at homeBorussia Dortmund have scored in every one of their last six at home.
6/6100%Borussia Dortmund · Last six at homeBorussia Dortmund are unbeaten in every one of their last six at home.
0/60%Borussia Dortmund · Last six at homeBorussia Dortmund have seen five or more cards in the match in 0 of their last six at home.
0/60%Real Betis · Last six awayReal Betis have seen five or more cards in the match in 0 of their last six on the road.
19/2095%Real Betis · Last 20Real Betis have scored in 19 of their last twenty.
17/2085%Real Betis · Last 20Real Betis are unbeaten in 17 of their last twenty.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Borussia Dortmund

31 OctFC Bayern Munchen (A)2-2D
24 OctEintracht Frankfurt (H)1-0W
20 OctSabah FK (A)2-1W
17 Oct1. FC Union Berlin (A)0-0D
14 OctBodo/Glimt (A)0-1L
09 OctSV Werder Bremen (H)2-2D

Real Betis

31 OctMalaga (H)2-1W
25 OctCelta Vigo (A)0-0D
21 OctFeyenoord (H)1-0W
17 OctBarcelona (H)2-5L
14 OctFC Porto (H)3-2W
11 OctOsasuna (H)5-2W
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Build Your Own Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis Bet

Diego Llorente to be Carded10/34.33
Why this bet4 of his last 10, 0.45 per 90
Waldemar Anton 2+ Fouls Committed11/43.75
Why this bet4 of his last 10, 1.0 per 90
Felix Nmecha 1+ Shots on Target13/82.63
Why this bet5 of his last 10, 0.79 per 90
Under 3.5 Cards11/102.10
Why this betBorussia Dortmund average 3.45 cards in a match and Real Betis 3.90, so 3.67 here. Our numbers make it 50% against the 48% the price implies.
Under 2.5 Goals13/82.63
Why this betBorussia Dortmund are expected 2.02 at home and Real Betis 1.20 away, so 3.22 in the match. Our numbers make it 37% against the 38% the price implies.
Both Teams to Score – No11/82.38
Why this betOne side is expected to be kept out – 2.02 against 1.20. Our numbers make it 39% against the 42% the price implies.
Jobe Bellingham to be Carded7/24.50
Why this betJobe Bellingham has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Borussia Dortmund, at 0.25 per 90 across 1,439 minutes, and he averages 72 minutes a game when he plays.Borussia Dortmund pick up 1.8 cards a game and there are 3.45 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 22% implied by 7/2.
Over 9.5 Corners4/51.80
Why this betBorussia Dortmund win 6.05 corners a game and Real Betis 5.1, with 2.95 and 2.8 of those in the first half.That leaves about 11 in the match, a 68% chance of 10 or more against the 56% implied by 4/5.
Borussia Dortmund to Win7/101.70
Why this betBorussia Dortmund have won 13 of their last 20, drawing 3, and at home they have scored 2.30 a game and conceded 0.90 across 10 matches.Real Betis average 1.80 scored and 1.35 conceded. The venue splits project 2.34 against 1.36, which puts Borussia Dortmund at about 57% to win, against 19% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score8/151.53
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 8 of Borussia Dortmund’s last 20 matches and 13 of Real Betis’. Borussia Dortmund concede 0.90 a game and Real Betis 1.35.On the venue splits the projection is 2.34 against 1.36, which puts both teams scoring at about 60%.
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