FC Porto vs Napoli Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

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FC Porto vs Napoli

Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 · Champions League

FC PortoWWLLWW

NapoliLWDWLL

Our predictionJan Bednarek 1+ Shots13/8

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – FC Porto 3 in the Champions League and 1 in the Europa League and 16 across two others, Napoli 17 in Serie A and 3 in the Champions League

Goals

1.70Scored per game1.65

0.75Conceded per game1.30

Home gamesAway games

1.55Scored1.40

0.45Conceded1.20

Expected Goals

1.78xG for1.50

0.99xG against1.39

-0.08Goals vs xG+0.15

Under and Over

70%Over 1.5 goals75%

45%Over 2.5 goals50%

25%Over 3.5 goals35%

Under 2.5 Goals11/10

FC Porto are expected 1.37 at home and Napoli 0.93 away, so 2.30 in the match. Our numbers make it 60% against the 48% the price implies.

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Both Teams to Score

35%Both teams scored45%

10 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20

4 of 20Failed to score5 of 20

Both Teams to Score – No6/5

One side is expected to be kept out – 1.37 against 0.93. Our numbers make it 55% against the 45% the price implies.

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Shots

15.15Shots per game14.60

5.20On target per game5.10

34.3%Accuracy34.9%

Corners

5.80Won per game5.15

3.20First half2.65

55.2%Share before the break51.5%

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Cards and Fouls

3.70Cards in the match2.95

1.50Own cards per game1.15

1.30Cards by half time0.80

13.70Fouls committed8.85

Under 3.5 Cards11/10

FC Porto average 3.70 cards in a match and Napoli 2.95, so 3.33 here. Our numbers make it 57% against the 48% the price implies.

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Shooting Detail

10.00Shots inside the box10.25

5.15Shots outside the box4.35

5.30Off target5.40

4.65Blocked4.10

Big Chances

3.30Big chances created2.35

2.20Big chances missed1.55

33%Taken34%

30.30Touches in the box26.75

Record

14-1-5Won, drawn, lost8-4-8

10 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20

4 of 20Failed to score5 of 20

Possession

53.20%Average share54.70%

Player Props

Per 90

Player	Mins	Shots	On target	Fouls	Fouled	Tackles	Cards
Jakub KiwiorFC Porto · D	1569	0.8	0.29	1.55	0.57	1.55	3
Victor FroholdtFC Porto · M	1493	1.51	0.66	1.45	0.96	1.57	0
Alberto CostaFC Porto · D	1486	1.21	0.42	2.42	1.57	1.94	2
Pablo RosarioFC Porto · M	1454	1.05	0.19	1.49	1.42	1.49	3
PepeFC Porto · F	1430	1.2	0.19	0.82	1.38	1.51	1
Jan BednarekFC Porto · D	1385	0.91	0.26	1.23	0.19	0.71	2
Gabri VeigaFC Porto · M	1208	2.76	0.89	1.79	1.71	2.31	3
Andre SilvaFC Porto · F	799	2.48	1.01	0.79	1.46	0.45	1
Alan VarelaFC Porto · M	692	1.43	0.39	1.04	1.04	1.17	2
Borja SainzFC Porto · F	661	2.72	1.63	1.63	1.36	0.82	0
Zaidu SanusiFC Porto · D	644	0.7	0.0	0.28	0.84	0.7	0
Francisco MouraFC Porto · D	588	0.31	0.31	1.38	0.46	2.45	1
Deniz GulFC Porto · F	572	2.36	0.79	2.52	1.1	0.31	1
Martim FernandesFC Porto · D	448	0.2	0.0	0.6	1.21	2.21	0
Rasmus HojlundNapoli · F	1464	2.27	0.74	0.74	1.17	0.0	0
Amir RrahmaniNapoli · D	1430	1.13	0.31	0.88	0.5	1.26	1
Scott McTominayNapoli · M	1315	3.7	1.16	0.68	1.78	0.89	0
Matteo PolitanoNapoli · F	1219	1.55	0.81	0.59	0.89	0.52	3
Kevin De BruyneNapoli · M	1179	1.45	0.69	0.92	0.84	1.53	1
Rafa MarinNapoli · D	1053	0.51	0.09	1.54	0.6	2.14	3
Frank AnguissaNapoli · M	660	1.23	0.27	0.82	1.09	0.68	1
Billy GilmourNapoli · M	647	0.83	0.28	0.83	0.7	1.39	1
Noa LangNapoli · F	623	2.46	1.16	0.72	0.72	1.44	1
Sam BeukemaNapoli · D	475	0.76	0.19	0.57	0.0	0.57	0
Miguel GutierrezNapoli · D	406	0.89	0.22	1.11	0.89	2.0	0

Advised props

Jan Bednarek 1+ Shots

Jan Bednarek has had a shot in 6 of his last 10 for FC Porto, at 0.91 per 90 across 1,385 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.

FC Porto take 15.15 shots a game and hit 5.2 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 38% implied by 13/8.

13/8Add

Victor Froholdt 2+ Fouls Committed

Victor Froholdt has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for FC Porto, at 1.45 per 90 across 1,493 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.

Napoli hold 54.7% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 42% implied by 11/8.

11/8Add

Alberto Costa 2+ Shots

Alberto Costa has had 2 or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for FC Porto, at 1.21 per 90 across 1,486 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

FC Porto take 15.15 shots a game and hit 5.2 on target. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 5/2.

5/2Add

Trends

Window shown per line

5/683%FC Porto · Last sixFC Porto have scored in five of their last six.

5/683%FC Porto · Last sixFC Porto have committed twelve or more fouls in five of their last six.

1/617%FC Porto · Last sixFC Porto have seen ten or more corners in the match in one of their last six.

0/60%Napoli · Last sixNapoli have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six.

0/60%Napoli · Last six awayNapoli have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six on the road.

5/683%Napoli · Last sixNapoli have gone past one and a half goals in five of their last six.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

FC Porto

31 OctEstoril Praia (H)4-0W

24 OctGil Vicente (A)1-0W

20 OctPSV Eindhoven (H)0-1L

14 OctReal Betis (A)2-3L

10 OctMaritimo (A)2-1W

20 SepBenfica (H)3-1W

Napoli

01 NovJuventus (A)0-2L

28 OctMonza (A)4-1W

24 OctRoma (H)3-3D

20 OctBodo/Glimt (H)4-3W

17 OctVenezia (A)0-1L

13 OctVillarreal (A)1-3L

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Build Your Own FC Porto vs Napoli Bet

Jan Bednarek 1+ Shots13/82.63

Why this bet

6 of his last 10, 0.91 per 90

Victor Froholdt 2+ Fouls Committed11/82.38

Why this bet

6 of his last 10, 1.45 per 90

Under 2.5 Goals11/102.10

Why this bet

FC Porto are expected 1.37 at home and Napoli 0.93 away, so 2.30 in the match. Our numbers make it 60% against the 48% the price implies.

Alberto Costa 2+ Shots5/23.50

Why this bet

4 of his last 10, 1.21 per 90

Under 3.5 Cards11/102.10

Why this bet

FC Porto average 3.70 cards in a match and Napoli 2.95, so 3.33 here. Our numbers make it 57% against the 48% the price implies.

Both Teams to Score – No6/52.20

Why this bet

One side is expected to be kept out – 1.37 against 0.93. Our numbers make it 55% against the 45% the price implies.

Pablo Rosario 2+ Shots10/34.33

Why this bet

Pablo Rosario has had 2 or more shots in 5 of his last 10 for FC Porto, at 1.05 per 90 across 1,454 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.FC Porto take 15.15 shots a game and hit 5.2 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 23% implied by 10/3.

Andre Silva 1+ Shots on Target4/111.36

Why this bet

Andre Silva has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for FC Porto, at 1.01 per 90 across 799 minutes, and he averages 61 minutes a game when he plays.FC Porto take 15.15 shots a game and hit 5.2 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 73% implied by 4/11.

Over 9.5 Corners1/12.00

Why this bet

FC Porto win 5.8 corners a game and Napoli 5.15, with 3.2 and 2.65 of those in the first half.That leaves about 11 in the match, a 65% chance of 10 or more against the 50% implied by Evens.

FC Porto to Win1/12.00

Why this bet

FC Porto come in on W W L L W W, and at home they have scored 1.55 a game and conceded 0.45 across 11 matches. They have won 14 of their last 20 overall, drawing 1.Napoli average 1.65 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 2.04 against 1.18, which puts FC Porto at about 53% to win, against 21% for the draw.

No legs selected

Prices change, so check the slip before you stake. bet365 does not allow every combination of legs within one game.

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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.