Benfica vs Lech Poznan Predictions and Stats

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Benfica vs Lech Poznan

Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 · Europa League

BenficaWWWWWL
Lech PoznanWLWDWL
Our predictionOver 9.5 Corners8/11

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Benfica 9 in the Europa League and 11 in another competition, Lech Poznan 7 in the Europa League and 1 in the Champions League and 12 across two others

Goals

2.95Scored per game2.40
0.85Conceded per game1.30
Home gamesAway games
3.11Scored2.11
0.78Conceded1.56
Correct Score 2-110/1

On the venue splits this projects Benfica 2.52 against Lech Poznan 1.44, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.6%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Benfica, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.71xG for1.52
0.63xG against1.10
+1.24Goals vs xG+0.88
Benfica to Win1/7

Benfica come in on W W W W W L, and at home they have scored 3.11 a game and conceded 0.78 across 9 matches. They have won 16 of their last 20 overall, drawing 2.

Lech Poznan average 2.40 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 2.52 against 1.44, which puts Benfica at about 72% to win, against 18% for the draw.

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Under and Over

95%Over 1.5 goals85%
80%Over 2.5 goals80%
60%Over 3.5 goals50%
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Both Teams to Score

65%Both teams scored55%
7 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
0 of 20Failed to score4 of 20
Both Teams to Score19/20

Both teams have scored in 13 of Benfica’s last 20 matches and 11 of Lech Poznan’s. Benfica concede 0.85 a game and Lech Poznan 1.30.

On the venue splits the projection is 2.52 against 1.44, which puts both teams scoring at about 65%.

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Shots

13.25Shots per game13.65
6.40On target per game6.30
48.3%Accuracy46.2%

Corners

6.45Won per game6.40
2.85First half2.45
44.2%Share before the break38.3%
Over 9.5 Corners8/11

Benfica win 6.45 corners a game and Lech Poznan 6.4, with 2.85 and 2.45 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 12 in the match, a 75% chance of 10 or more against the 58% implied by 8/11.

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Cards and Fouls

4.60Cards in the match3.85
2.05Own cards per game1.70
1.30Cards by half time1.05
10.45Fouls committed11.15

Shooting Detail

9.45Shots inside the box8.45
3.80Shots outside the box4.30
6.55Off target6.70
4.85Blocked4.15

Big Chances

2.45Big chances created3.20
1.45Big chances missed2.00
41%Taken38%
29.65Touches in the box21.35

Record

16-2-2Won, drawn, lost13-2-5
7 of 20Clean sheets5 of 20
0 of 20Failed to score4 of 20

Possession

54.90%Average share50.70%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Tomas AraujoBenfica · D12210.740.071.180.151.475
Samuel DahlBenfica · D10390.610.171.210.782.342
Gianluca PrestianniBenfica · M10394.071.650.352.691.733
Vangelis PavlidisBenfica · F10103.481.691.161.511.162
Alexander BahBenfica · D8601.470.731.152.091.784
Clement LengletBenfica · D8450.640.211.380.640.852
Joao PalhinhaBenfica · M8231.640.221.532.082.844
Rafa SilvaBenfica · M7681.990.70.71.761.640
Fredrik AursnesBenfica · M6690.810.271.350.540.811
Andreas SchjelderupBenfica · F6402.810.560.841.411.410
Georgiy SudakovBenfica · M5482.460.491.481.311.152
Dodi LukebakioBenfica · F4173.021.511.291.511.730
Michal GurgulLech Poznan · D13350.880.270.270.811.212
Joel PereiraLech Poznan · D12690.140.00.852.062.412
Radoslaw MurawskiLech Poznan · M11250.80.082.641.442.723
Pablo RodriguezLech Poznan · M10692.950.931.262.781.521
Mateusz SkrzypczakLech Poznan · D10350.430.090.870.70.522
Patrik WalemarkLech Poznan · F10253.691.840.532.370.73
Antoni KozubalLech Poznan · M8161.540.661.210.991.431
Terry YegbeLech Poznan · D7480.360.01.320.00.361
Luis PalmaLech Poznan · M7413.161.340.360.970.611
Yannick AgneroLech Poznan · F6333.411.421.00.570.141
Filip JagielloLech Poznan · M4231.490.640.640.850.431
Leo BengtssonLech Poznan · F4002.020.451.570.230.451

Advised props

Alexander Bah 1+ Shots on Target

Alexander Bah has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Benfica, at 0.73 per 90 across 860 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

Benfica take 13.25 shots a game and hit 6.4 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.

7/4Add
Joao Palhinha to be Carded

Joao Palhinha has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Benfica, at 0.44 per 90 across 823 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Benfica pick up 2.05 cards a game and there are 4.6 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 27% implied by 11/4.

11/4Add
Terry Yegbe 1+ Fouls Committed

Terry Yegbe has committed a foul in 8 of his last 9 for Lech Poznan, at 1.32 per 90 across 748 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.

Benfica hold 54.9% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Tomas Araujo to be Carded

Tomas Araujo has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Benfica, at 0.37 per 90 across 1,221 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Benfica pick up 2.05 cards a game and there are 4.6 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 17% implied by 5/1.

5/1Add

Trends

Window shown per line
20/20100%Benfica · Last 20Benfica have scored in every one of their last twenty.
6/6100%Benfica · Last six at homeBenfica are unbeaten in every one of their last six at home.
6/6100%Benfica · Last sixBenfica have scored in every one of their last six.
0/60%Lech Poznan · Last sixLech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Lech Poznan · Last six awayLech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six on the road.
6/6100%Lech Poznan · Last six awayLech Poznan have picked up two or more cards in every one of their last six on the road.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Benfica

02 NovFC Alverca (H)1-0W
26 OctSanta Clara (A)2-1W
22 OctOmonia Nicosia (A)4-1W
15 OctCeltic (H)4-1W
11 OctVitoria SC (H)2-0W
20 SepFC Porto (A)1-3L

Lech Poznan

31 OctWisla Krakow (H)3-1W
28 OctSiarka Tarnobrzeg (A)0-1L
25 OctLegia Warszawa (A)2-1W
22 OctSunderland (H)1-1D
18 OctMKS Korona Kielce (H)6-1W
15 OctBayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-4L
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Build Your Own Benfica vs Lech Poznan Bet

Over 9.5 Corners8/111.73
Why this bet75% on our numbers
Both Teams to Score19/201.95
Why this bet65% on our numbers
Alexander Bah 1+ Shots on Target7/42.75
Why this bet5 of his last 10, 0.73 per 90
Joao Palhinha to be Carded11/43.75
Why this bet4 of his last 10, 0.44 per 90
Terry Yegbe 1+ Fouls CommittedTBC
Why this betTerry Yegbe has committed a foul in 8 of his last 9 for Lech Poznan, at 1.32 per 90 across 748 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.Benfica hold 54.9% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Tomas Araujo to be Carded5/16.00
Why this betTomas Araujo has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Benfica, at 0.37 per 90 across 1,221 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Benfica pick up 2.05 cards a game and there are 4.6 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 17% implied by 5/1.
Benfica to Win1/71.14
Why this betBenfica come in on W W W W W L, and at home they have scored 3.11 a game and conceded 0.78 across 9 matches. They have won 16 of their last 20 overall, drawing 2.Lech Poznan average 2.40 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 2.52 against 1.44, which puts Benfica at about 72% to win, against 18% for the draw.
Correct Score 2-110/111.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Benfica 2.52 against Lech Poznan 1.44, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.6%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Benfica, which is where the board has the match too.
Benfica to Win and Both Teams to Score7/52.40
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: Benfica to win is about 72% and both teams scoring about 65%. Benfica score 2.95 a game and concede 0.85, and Lech Poznan have scored in 11 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 7/5.
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