Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Predictions and Stats

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Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 · Championship

Derby CountyLLDLLD

Bolton WanderersWLLDWL

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Bolton Wanderers 14 in the Championship and 6 in the League One

Goals

1.00Scored per game1.55

1.85Conceded per game1.70

Home gamesAway games

0.80Scored1.33

1.60Conceded1.33

Correct Score 2-19/1

On the venue splits this projects Derby County 1.29 against Bolton Wanderers 1.52, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.4%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Derby County, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.15xG for1.43

1.83xG against1.78

-0.15Goals vs xG+0.12

Under and Over

85%Over 1.5 goals65%

60%Over 2.5 goals60%

25%Over 3.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 Goals4/6

Derby County have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Bolton Wanderers in 60%, with 85% and 65% going past 1.5.

Derby County average 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded, Bolton Wanderers 1.55 and 1.70. On the venue splits that projects 1.29 against 1.52, about 2.8 goals in the match and 57% for over 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

60%Both teams scored60%

3 of 20Clean sheets6 of 20

5 of 20Failed to score4 of 20

Both Teams to Score8/15

Both teams have scored in 12 of Derby County’s last 20 matches and 12 of Bolton Wanderers’. Derby County concede 1.85 a game and Bolton Wanderers 1.70.

On the venue splits the projection is 1.29 against 1.52, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.

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Shots

12.70Shots per game14.90

3.90On target per game4.95

30.7%Accuracy33.2%

Corners

5.35Won per game5.20

1.90First half2.20

35.5%Share before the break42.3%

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Cards and Fouls

4.20Cards in the match3.40

2.55Own cards per game1.65

1.30Cards by half time1.20

12.95Fouls committed10.95

Shooting Detail

8.80Shots inside the box9.65

3.90Shots outside the box5.25

4.60Off target5.75

4.20Blocked4.25

Big Chances

1.90Big chances created1.80

1.30Big chances missed1.30

32%Taken28%

24.75Touches in the box24.25

Record

4-4-12Won, drawn, lost8-4-8

3 of 20Clean sheets6 of 20

5 of 20Failed to score4 of 20

Possession

48.50%Average share51.50%

Player Props

Per 90

Player	Mins	Shots	On target	Fouls	Fouled	Tackles	Cards
Sammie SzmodicsDerby County · M	1437	2.44	0.88	0.63	0.5	0.94	4
Carlton MorrisDerby County · F	1392	2.2	0.71	2.07	1.23	0.71	1
Dion SandersonDerby County · D	1323	0.2	0.0	1.36	0.48	1.16	4
Bobby ClarkDerby County · M	1308	2.34	0.62	0.96	1.24	1.44	2
Joe WardDerby County · D	1254	0.72	0.36	0.57	0.79	1.44	0
Lewis TravisDerby County · M	918	0.2	0.0	1.47	2.06	2.65	4
Alex MowattDerby County · M	814	0.33	0.11	1.33	1.11	2.43	4
Ryan HedgesDerby County · D	807	0.67	0.33	0.67	1.34	2.57	1
Oscar FrauloDerby County · M	646	1.25	0.56	1.67	1.11	0.84	3
Max JohnstonDerby County · D	560	1.29	0.16	0.64	0.0	1.93	1
Matt ClarkeDerby County · D	540	1.17	0.17	0.67	0.67	2.33	2
Ryan NyambeDerby County · D	527	0.0	0.0	0.85	0.51	2.05	2
Mohammed FuseiniDerby County · F	491	2.02	0.73	1.65	2.2	1.28	2
Henrik Wendel MeisterDerby County · F	426	2.32	0.63	4.01	0.42	1.27	1
Ben Brereton DiazDerby County · F	404	1.11	0.22	0.45	0.89	0.67	2
Rhian BrewsterDerby County · F	403	1.56	0.22	0.67	0.89	0.45	2
Josh SheehanBolton Wanderers · M	1777	1.92	0.56	1.27	1.37	1.47	4
Chris ForinoBolton Wanderers · D	1246	0.79	0.14	0.36	1.08	2.24	3
Sam DalbyBolton Wanderers · F	1180	1.91	0.92	1.22	0.84	0.84	0
Max ConwayBolton Wanderers · D	1123	0.4	0.0	0.8	1.68	2.72	2
Thierry GaleBolton Wanderers · F	1107	2.11	0.73	0.41	0.49	1.14	3
Eoin ToalBolton Wanderers · D	1041	0.69	0.17	0.61	0.43	1.38	1
Ruben RodriguesBolton Wanderers · F	985	2.56	0.91	1.83	2.65	1.64	2
Gaizka LarrazabalBolton Wanderers · D	955	1.23	0.19	1.23	0.57	0.66	2
Akin FamewoBolton Wanderers · D	677	0.66	0.13	0.93	1.33	1.86	2
Samuel Iling JuniorBolton Wanderers · F	645	1.95	0.7	1.4	0.7	1.53	1
Lewis BruntBolton Wanderers · D	598	0.45	0.15	0.6	0.6	2.11	1
Ben DaviesBolton Wanderers · D	588	0.15	0.0	0.31	0.92	0.77	1
Xavier SimonsBolton Wanderers · M	541	1.0	0.5	0.67	0.83	1.5	0
Amario Cozier-DuberryBolton Wanderers · F	540	3.33	1.17	1.33	1.5	1.17	0
Kyliane DongBolton Wanderers · F	494	2.73	0.73	1.09	1.28	0.73	1
George JohnstonBolton Wanderers · D	438	0.41	0.0	1.44	0.62	0.62	2
Mason BurstowBolton Wanderers · F	417	2.16	0.65	2.16	0.65	1.29	0
Jordi Osei-TutuBolton Wanderers · D	413	0.87	0.44	0.44	2.18	3.05	0

Advised props

Sam Dalby 1+ Shots on Target

Sam Dalby has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.92 per 90 across 1,180 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.

Bolton Wanderers take 14.9 shots a game and hit 4.95 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 56% implied by 4/5.

4/5Add

Josh Sheehan 1+ Shots on Target

Josh Sheehan has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.56 per 90 across 1,777 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.

Bolton Wanderers take 14.9 shots a game and hit 4.95 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 42% implied by 11/8.

11/8Add

Ryan Nyambe 1+ Fouls Committed

Ryan Nyambe has committed a foul in 5 of his last 8 for Derby County, at 0.85 per 90 across 527 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.

Bolton Wanderers hold 51.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 62% on his own record, against the 58% implied by 8/11.

8/11Add

Max Conway 1+ Fouls Committed

Max Conway has committed a foul in 6 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.8 per 90 across 1,123 minutes, and he averages 62 minutes a game when he plays.

Derby County hold 48.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 50% implied by Evens.

EvensAdd

Carlton Morris 2+ Fouls Committed

Carlton Morris has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 2.07 per 90 across 1,392 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Bolton Wanderers hold 51.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.

12/5Add

Trends

Window shown per line

0/60%Derby County · Last sixDerby County have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six.

0/60%Derby County · Last sixDerby County have won in 0 of their last six.

5/683%Bolton Wanderers · Last sixBolton Wanderers have scored in five of their last six.

5/683%Bolton Wanderers · Last six awayBolton Wanderers have committed twelve or more fouls in five of their last six on the road.

1/617%Bolton Wanderers · Last six awayBolton Wanderers have won six or more corners in one of their last six on the road.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Derby County

03 NovNorwich City (H)0-4L

31 OctMillwall (A)1-4L

24 OctSheffield United (A)1-1D

17 OctStoke City (H)0-1L

14 OctQueens Park Rangers (A)1-4L

10 OctWrexham (H)1-1D

Bolton Wanderers

03 NovCharlton Athletic (A)1-0W

31 OctBristol City (H)2-3L

23 OctMiddlesbrough (H)1-5L

17 OctSouthampton (A)0-0D

13 OctWolverhampton (A)3-1W

10 OctStoke City (H)1-2L

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Build Your Own Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Bet

Sam Dalby 1+ Shots on Target4/51.80

Why this bet

Sam Dalby has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.92 per 90 across 1,180 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Bolton Wanderers take 14.9 shots a game and hit 4.95 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 56% implied by 4/5.

Josh Sheehan 1+ Shots on Target11/82.38

Why this bet

Josh Sheehan has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.56 per 90 across 1,777 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.Bolton Wanderers take 14.9 shots a game and hit 4.95 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 42% implied by 11/8.

Ryan Nyambe 1+ Fouls Committed8/111.73

Why this bet

Ryan Nyambe has committed a foul in 5 of his last 8 for Derby County, at 0.85 per 90 across 527 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Bolton Wanderers hold 51.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 62% on his own record, against the 58% implied by 8/11.

Max Conway 1+ Fouls Committed1/12.00

Why this bet

Max Conway has committed a foul in 6 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 0.8 per 90 across 1,123 minutes, and he averages 62 minutes a game when he plays.Derby County hold 48.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 50% implied by Evens.

Carlton Morris 2+ Fouls Committed12/53.40

Why this bet

Carlton Morris has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 2.07 per 90 across 1,392 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Bolton Wanderers hold 51.5% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.

Both Teams to Score8/151.53

Why this bet

Both teams have scored in 12 of Derby County’s last 20 matches and 12 of Bolton Wanderers’. Derby County concede 1.85 a game and Bolton Wanderers 1.70.On the venue splits the projection is 1.29 against 1.52, which puts both teams scoring at about 58%.

Over 2.5 Goals4/61.67

Why this bet

Derby County have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Bolton Wanderers in 60%, with 85% and 65% going past 1.5.Derby County average 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded, Bolton Wanderers 1.55 and 1.70. On the venue splits that projects 1.29 against 1.52, about 2.8 goals in the match and 57% for over 2.5.

Correct Score 2-19/110.00

Why this bet

On the venue splits this projects Derby County 1.29 against Bolton Wanderers 1.52, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.4%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Derby County, which is where the board has the match too.

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Andy Clark

Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.