Chelsea vs Leeds betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Five tips, and three of them are fouls drawn. Leeds commit 11.00 fouls a game and Chelsea 10.30, and the three players below have been fouled at rates the market has not fully priced.
Chelsea vs Leeds United
Chelsea
- L1-2at Arsenal06 Sep
- W3-2at Fulham24 Aug
- L1-2at Sunderland24 May
- W2-1Tottenham Hotspur19 May
- D1-1at Liverpool09 May
- L1-3Nottingham Forest04 May
Leeds United
- D1-1Brentford30 Aug
- W1-0at Nottingham Forest22 Aug
- L0-3at West Ham United24 May
- D1-1at Tottenham Hotspur11 May
- W3-1Burnley01 May
- D2-2at Bournemouth22 Apr
Chelsea vs Leeds Betting Tips
Over 9.5 Corners — 4/5. Chelsea take 5.85 corners a game and Leeds 4.35, for 10.20 between them. About 57% on our figures against a fair 52%.
Both Teams to Score — 4/6. Chelsea saw goals at both ends in 14 of their last 20 and Leeds in 10 of 20. About 60% against a fair 55%.
Over 3.5 Cards — 8/11. Chelsea’s matches averaged 4.55 cards and Leeds’ 3.95, for 4.25 between them – the highest pairing of either midweek round. Jarred Gillett books 4.17 a game. About 61% against a fair 54%.
J. Justin 2+ Fouls Drawn — 9/4. Fouled twice or more in 3 of his last 6 across 1,736 minutes, and he has started all 3 of Leeds’ matches this season.
J. Pedro 3+ Fouls Drawn — 2/1. Fouled three times or more in 3 of his last 6, and started all 3 for Chelsea this season.
R. Lavia 2+ Fouls Drawn — 6/4. Fouled twice or more in 3 of his last 6, starting all 3 this season – though 507 minutes is the thinnest sample of the three.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Justin 2+ Fouls Drawn | 9/4 | 50% | 31% | +19 | Tipped |
| J. Pedro 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2/1 | 50% | 33% | +17 | Tipped |
| R. Lavia 2+ Fouls Drawn | 6/4 | 50% | 40% | +10 | Tipped |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 8/11 | 61% | 58% | +3 | Tipped |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 4/5 | 57% | 56% | +1 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 4/6 | 60% | 60% | -0 | Tipped |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced at 4/6 or longer, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than ours. Shorter prices are in the bet builder legs below.
Potential Bet Builder Legs
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stach 1+ Shots | 2/5 | 100% | 71% | +29 |
| J. Justin 1+ Fouls Drawn | 4/9 | 83% | 69% | +14 |
| J. Pedro 1+ Fouls Drawn | 1/7 | 100% | 88% | +13 |
| C. Palmer 3+ Shots | 2/5 | 83% | 71% | +12 |
| R. Lavia 1+ Fouls Drawn | 1/3 | 83% | 75% | +8 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are not tips. Every row is priced too short to back on its own – at 1/4 or 2/5 you are risking a lot to win a little, and a 100% record across six matches is not a guarantee of a seventh. They are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. None of them is in our record, because we are not recommending them.
Anton Stach has had a shot in all 6 of his last 6 across 1,115 minutes at 2/5, against a market implying 71%. That is the widest gap on the fixture and it is not a bet at that price.
What We Are Leaving Out
Over 2.5 goals at 4/6. Our figure is 55% against a fair 57%, so the market has it. The two sides have seen 2.88 goals a game between them.
Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Chelsea. Chelsea have kept no clean sheets in 20 matches and score 1.45 goals a game, and Leeds have kept 6 in 20 but failed to score in 6 of them.
Both managers will rotate, which is the caution on everything above. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a cup tie those matches were played by different teams. The three fouls-drawn selections are on players who have started every match this season, which is the best guard against it we have.
Wesley Fofana is suspended for Chelsea, and Joe Rodon and Ilia Gruev are out for Leeds.
More Chelsea vs Leeds Tips and Predictions
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.