England’s emphatic 4-2 win over Croatia at AT&T Stadium on Wednesday night confirmed Thomas Tuchel’s side as overwhelming Group L favourites — Fusion-Sim modelling now gives England a 91.2% probability of winning the group and progressing as Group L winners into the knockout stages.
The win was as comprehensive as the scoreline suggests. The four goals, including Harry Kane finding the net twice to extend his international tally and Jude Bellingham scoring a vital goal early in the second half, exorcised the ghosts of the 2018 World Cup semi-final and announced England as genuine tournament contenders.
Below is the projected route to the MetLife Stadium final on Sunday 19 July, based on Fusion-Sim’s probabilistic modelling and assuming England top Group L.
What the 4-2 Win Actually Means
Before getting to the route, the context. The win delivers three things:
- Three points in the bag — opens the gap to Croatia (now under serious pressure to take points from Ghana and Panama)
- Goal difference advantage — a +2 goal difference after one fixture means England can play conservatively from now on
- Confidence and momentum — Tuchel’s England arrive at the Ghana fixture with the most attacking statement of intent any England side has made at a World Cup opener since Italia 90
The 91.2% Fusion-Sim probability captures all three. It’s not just based on remaining fixtures — it’s based on the strength shown in the Croatia performance combined with England’s pre-tournament squad strength.
For the bet builder community, the win validated the headline pre-match positions: England to win + both teams to score landed (the 11/10 BoyleSports BTTS leg cashed) and Kane to score landed in multiple builders.
The Remaining Group L Fixtures
Two more group games to navigate before the knockout phase begins.
Tuesday 23 June, 9pm UK — England vs Ghana
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts TV: Live UK coverage TBC
Ghana qualified via the African play-off final and arrived with one of the smaller squad depths in Group L. England’s 4-2 attacking statement against Croatia suggests Tuchel will rotate selectively — Marcus Rashford could get more minutes and Saka might come in from the start.
England outright price likely shortens significantly after the Croatia performance — pre-match this was around 1/3 in match-winner markets. Expect bookmakers to price England at 2/7 to 1/4 to win this one.
Saturday 27 June, 10pm UK — England vs Panama
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey TV: Live UK coverage TBC
The Panama fixture closes Group L. Given England’s 4-2 head start and likely Ghana result, this match may be more about player rotation and avoiding injuries than securing points. Worth noting: MetLife is the venue that will host the World Cup Final on 19 July. Tuchel will use this fixture to give his preferred starting XI a final pre-knockout outing at the venue they’re aiming to return to in four weeks’ time.
The Projected Knockout Route (Assuming Group L Winners)
If England top Group L — and the 91.2% probability says they will — Fusion-Sim’s projection runs through five knockout stages.
Round of 32 — Wednesday 1 July, 5pm UK
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Most likely opponent: DR Congo (19.7%) or Uzbekistan (18.6%)
The R32 opponent is the runner-up from Group K — Colombia’s group. Fusion-Sim’s modelling gives DR Congo and Uzbekistan roughly equal probability, with Portugal likely topping that group and either of the other two finishing third.
This is the most favourable possible R32 opponent for England. Both DR Congo and Uzbekistan would be heavy underdogs against Tuchel’s side — likely 1/8 to 1/12 in match-winner markets. The 5pm UK kick-off makes it accessible UK viewing despite the US venue.
Betting angle: England to win at very short odds, but markets like first half goals, total England goals over 2.5, and individual goalscorer markets (Kane anytime, Saka anytime) offer the value at this stage of the knockouts.
Round of 16 — Monday 6 July, 1am UK (Sunday 5 July late evening US)
Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City Most likely opponent: Mexico (27.0%) or South Korea (24.4%)
The R16 is where the route gets interesting. Estadio Azteca is the historic home of Mexican football and an iconic World Cup venue — but if Mexico themselves are England’s opponent, the home crowd advantage is significant. Mexico’s 27.0% probability reflects their likely route through Group D as group winners.
The 1am UK time is brutal for British fans — late Sunday evening US time — but typical for the host nation’s prime-time slot.
Betting angle: If Mexico, market this as one of the toughest possible R16 ties — England likely 6/4 to 13/8 in match-winner markets. If South Korea, England favourites at around 4/9. The opponent identity makes a meaningful difference to the betting position.
Quarter-Final — Saturday 11 July, 10pm UK
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Most likely opponent: Brazil (18.7%)
Brazil at 18.7% is the most probable quarter-final opponent, but it’s a relatively flat probability distribution at this stage — the bracket structure means England could face any of several Group B/C/D top teams depending on how the seedings shake out across the other groups.
A Brazil quarter-final would be the standout fixture of the tournament for UK punters. Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, Endrick — the next generation of Brazilian attackers facing Tuchel’s defensive structure of Stones, Guéhi and Rice. England would be marginal underdogs at around 9/4 to 12/5 in pre-match betting; Brazil 6/5 to 11/10 favourites.
Betting angle: Quarter-final markets for England are best approached cautiously — historically this is where England’s tournaments have ended. The Hard Rock Stadium Miami venue is hosting multiple high-profile matches, and the 10pm UK kick-off works perfectly for UK punters.
Semi-Final — Wednesday 15 July, 8pm UK
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Most likely opponent: Argentina (37.3%)
This is the fixture that captures the imagination. Argentina at 37.3% is by far the highest single-opponent probability at any stage of England’s route — and given Messi’s confirmed presence in his almost certainly final World Cup, this semi-final scenario would deliver the storyline of the tournament.
1986 baggage. 1998 (Beckham red card) baggage. 2002 (Beckham penalty) revenge. Messi’s last World Cup. Kane vs Argentina’s defence. Bellingham vs the midfield masters Mac Allister and De Paul. It would be the most-watched single football match in UK television history if it happens.
England would likely be slight underdogs at around 7/4 to 2/1 in match-winner markets; Argentina 6/5 to 5/4 favourites. The 8pm UK kick-off — perfect viewing for British audiences — is a strong omen for UK betting volume on this match if it materialises.
Final — Sunday 19 July, 8pm UK
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey Most likely opponent: Spain (23.0%)
Spain at 23.0% to be England’s final opponent reflects the European champions’ likely strong tournament run. Spain’s recent Euro 2024 form, Lamine Yamal’s emergence, and a settled core (Rodri, Pedri, Nico Williams) make them genuine title favourites.
An England vs Spain final at MetLife on 19 July would be the culmination of two of the European game’s most settled current sides. England’s bookmaker outright pre-match was around 6/1 to 13/2; after the Croatia performance, expect this to shorten to 9/2 to 5/1 in many markets.
For final-stage betting, the 8pm UK kick-off makes this the perfect TV event for UK punters — peak Sunday evening, terrestrial coverage on the BBC and ITV both bidding, and almost certainly the most-bet single sporting event of 2026 in UK markets.
What the Betting Markets Will Do Next
Following the 4-2 Croatia win, expect bookmakers to update England outright odds materially in the next 24-48 hours:
Pre-match outright (before Croatia): 6/1 to 13/2 to win the tournament Likely post-match shortening: 9/2 to 5/1 (could go as short as 4/1 if Tuchel rotates well in the Ghana and Panama matches)
England to win Group L was around 1/8 pre-tournament. Expect that to shorten to 1/20 or shorter — effectively a banker market now.
Top goalscorer markets will shorten on Harry Kane after the Croatia goal. Pre-match he was around 7/1 to 8/1 for the Golden Boot; expect 5/1 to 6/1 in most books following the win.
Individual market angles worth tracking:
- Kane Golden Boot — value before the market settles
- Saka top assists — strong angle after the dominance performance
- Bellingham top young player (under 21) — eligible category
- England top half of bracket without losing — a derivative market available at some bookmakers
The Narrative Arc
Look at the projected route again:
Croatia (2018 semi-final rematch)✓ 4-2 win- Ghana (debutant African side)
- Panama (CONCACAF qualifier)
- R32 vs DR Congo or Uzbekistan (heavy underdogs)
- R16 vs Mexico or South Korea (host nation challenge)
- QF vs Brazil (the Samba quarter-final)
- SF vs Argentina (Messi’s last dance vs the Three Lions)
- F vs Spain (European champions head-to-head)
It’s a route that captures every storyline England football fans have wanted from a major tournament. Beating Croatia was the first act. The next four weeks could deliver the most compelling England tournament narrative of the 21st century.
The 91.2% Group L probability doesn’t guarantee any of it. But it does mean Tuchel’s England can now focus entirely on managing minutes, building knockout-stage cohesion, and preparing for the knockout phase rather than worrying about Group L mathematics.
More England and World Cup 2026 Content
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18+. Probabilities sourced from Fusion-Sim modelling (fusion-sim.com) and represent projections as of 18 June 2026 — actual knockout path will be confirmed by group stage results across all 12 groups. Odds correct at time of publishing. New customers only at each bookmaker. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org | GamCare.org.uk
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.