Middlesbrough vs Millwall Betting Tips, Bet Builder, Predictions and Stats

Middlesbrough vs Millwall betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.

Four selections, and two of them rest on short samples. Metcalfe and Lankshear have just over 450 minutes each but the strongest rates in the fixture; Sturge and Ayling have 1,600 minutes apiece and smaller edges. Both kinds are here with the numbers shown.

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Middlesbrough vs Millwall Betting Tips

J. Metcalfe to be Carded — 12/5. Jenson Metcalfe commits 3.12 fouls per 90 for Millwall, the highest rate of any player in this fixture, and has been booked in 3 of his last 6.

W. Lankshear Anytime Goalscorer — 5/4. Will Lankshear takes 3.80 shots per 90 for Middlesbrough, the highest rate in this fixture, and has scored in 3 of his last 6.

Z. Sturge 1+ Shot — 11/8. Zak Sturge has had a shot in 5 of his last 10 for Millwall, at 0.62 per 90 across 1,595 minutes, and has started all 6 this season.

L. Ayling 2+ Shots — 2/1. Luke Ayling has had two or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for Middlesbrough, at 1.52 per 90 across 1,598 minutes.

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Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model

These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.

Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.

The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.

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Player Props Bet Finder

Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.

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What We Are Leaving Out

Both teams to score at 8/11. Middlesbrough have seen goals at both ends in 12 of their last 20 and Millwall in 9, which gives about 53% against a fair 55%. The price is ahead of us.

The corners. 13.40 between the sides against a line of 10.5 looks generous until you notice Millwall take 5.95 a game and will spend the night defending. The market has it about right.

Every card market. No referee is appointed, so the team card lines here rest on a league average of 4.20 rather than a real record. Metcalfe’s is a player market and his fouling carries it; the match total is not something to argue with on a default.

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Middlesbrough vs Millwall Prediction

We are predicting 2-1 to Middlesbrough. The market makes it 60% Middlesbrough, 22% the draw and 18% Millwall.

Middlesbrough have won 4 of their last 6 and take 19.10 shots a game to Millwall’s 13.85, holding 61.05% of the ball. Millwall have lost 3 of their last 6 and score 1.45 a game away.

Both teams to score is the market this points at, and we are leaving it. Middlesbrough are 12 of 20 and Millwall 9 of 20, giving about 53% against a price implying 55% – close enough that the bookmaker has it.

The scoreline carries a Millwall goal because they have found the net in 8 of their 11 away matches, even in the three they lost.

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