SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

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SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje

Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 · Europa League

SK Sturm GrazDLDWWL

NK CeljeWDDDLW

Our predictionArtemijus Tutyskinas to be Carded21/10

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – SK Sturm Graz 3 in the Champions League and 3 in the Europa League and 14 across two others, NK Celje 5 in the Champions League and 3 in the Europa League and 12 in another competition

Goals

1.55Scored per game1.15

1.15Conceded per game1.10

Home gamesAway games

1.62Scored1.00

0.75Conceded1.30

Correct Score 1-08/1

On the venue splits this projects SK Sturm Graz 1.60 against NK Celje 1.15, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.1%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs SK Sturm Graz, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.71xG for1.40

1.15xG against1.14

-0.16Goals vs xG-0.25

SK Sturm Graz to Win8/15

SK Sturm Graz have won 9 of their last 20, drawing 5, and at home they have scored 1.62 a game and conceded 0.75 across 8 matches.

NK Celje average 1.15 scored and 1.10 conceded. The venue splits project 1.60 against 1.15, which puts SK Sturm Graz at about 55% to win, against 25% for the draw.

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Under and Over

80%Over 1.5 goals75%

45%Over 2.5 goals35%

25%Over 3.5 goals20%

Under 2.5 Goals11/8

SK Sturm Graz are expected 1.46 at home and NK Celje 0.88 away, so 2.34 in the match. Our numbers make it 59% against the 42% the price implies.

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Both Teams to Score

45%Both teams scored50%

7 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20

5 of 20Failed to score5 of 20

Both Teams to Score – No11/10

One side is expected to be kept out – 1.46 against 0.88. Our numbers make it 55% against the 48% the price implies.

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Shots

16.15Shots per game11.88

4.90On target per game4.12

30.3%Accuracy34.7%

Corners

5.95Won per game4.53

2.00First half0.12

33.6%Share before the break2.6%

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Cards and Fouls

4.25Cards in the match3.88

2.25Own cards per game2.12

1.00Cards by half time0.41

12.80Fouls committed12.00

Shooting Detail

10.00Shots inside the box7.82

6.15Shots outside the box4.12

6.45Off target4.47

4.75Blocked4.12

Big Chances

2.35Big chances created0.76

1.50Big chances missed0.59

36%Taken22%

22.45Touches in the box21.47

Record

9-5-6Won, drawn, lost6-8-6

7 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20

5 of 20Failed to score5 of 20

Possession

46.75%Average share59.35%

Player Props

Per 90

Player	Mins	Shots	On target	Fouls	Fouled	Tackles	Cards
Jon Gorenc StankovicSK Sturm Graz · M	1551	1.22	0.29	1.33	1.62	1.62	6
Jacob HodlSK Sturm Graz · D	1483	2.06	0.55	1.46	1.15	0.97	1
Simon SeidlSK Sturm Graz · F	1458	2.96	1.05	0.74	1.05	0.93	1
Luca WeinhandlSK Sturm Graz · M	1364	1.12	0.4	1.45	1.91	1.78	3
Jurgen HeilSK Sturm Graz · D	1242	1.01	0.22	1.01	1.3	2.46	4
Paul KollerSK Sturm Graz · D	1114	0.97	0.08	1.29	0.57	0.4	1
Arjan MalicSK Sturm Graz · D	973	0.65	0.09	1.48	0.55	1.94	2
Joshua QuarshieSK Sturm Graz · D	950	0.47	0.0	1.42	0.19	0.66	2
Luis BalboSK Sturm Graz · D	849	0.64	0.11	0.95	1.27	1.27	3
Valmir MatoshiSK Sturm Graz · F	825	1.75	0.33	1.31	0.11	1.31	1
Albert VallciSK Sturm Graz · D	822	0.77	0.11	0.77	0.44	1.97	3
Belmin BeganovicSK Sturm Graz · F	624	2.31	1.01	1.59	1.59	0.58	1
Seedy JattaSK Sturm Graz · F	600	2.25	1.35	1.65	1.2	0.3	0
Emran SogloSK Sturm Graz · D	581	0.93	0.46	0.46	0.77	3.1	1
Petar PetrovicSK Sturm Graz · D	564	0.8	0.16	0.32	0.8	1.91	1
Oumar DiakiteSK Sturm Graz · F	511	4.23	2.11	2.29	0.35	0.53	3
Gizo MamageishviliSK Sturm Graz · M	414	4.35	1.3	2.17	2.61	1.74	1
Szymon WlodarczykSK Sturm Graz · F	411	2.85	1.09	1.31	0.0	0.44	1
Artemijus TutyskinasNK Celje · D	1160	0.16	0.0	1.55	0.62	0.78	7
Mark ZabukovnikNK Celje · M	1151	1.09	0.08	1.02	0.47	0.55	3
Svit SeslarNK Celje · M	1148	1.72	0.71	1.18	1.41	0.86	2
Milot AvdyliNK Celje · D	1081	0.67	0.17	1.08	1.58	0.83	3
Yaya DukulyNK Celje · F	950	1.8	0.47	0.95	1.99	0.19	1
Mario KvesicNK Celje · M	946	1.71	0.48	0.38	0.76	0.95	2
Lukasz BejgerNK Celje · D	751	0.12	0.0	0.84	0.48	0.24	2
Matic IvansekNK Celje · D	736	0.86	0.24	0.73	0.86	0.12	0
Pijus SirvysNK Celje · D	681	0.26	0.26	1.32	2.25	1.32	4
Benjamin VerbicNK Celje · F	667	2.16	0.94	2.7	1.75	0.54	3
Papa DanielNK Celje · M	629	1.43	0.14	1.57	0.57	0.72	1
Armandas KucysNK Celje · F	562	2.72	1.12	0.64	1.12	0.16	0
Leonardo KoutrisNK Celje · D	540	0.5	0.0	0.83	0.83	0.0	0
Darko HrkaNK Celje · M	518	0.52	0.35	0.69	1.04	0.52	0
Blaz KramerNK Celje · F	502	1.79	0.36	0.9	1.43	0.36	0
Ivan CalusicNK Celje · M	428	1.26	0.0	0.21	0.84	0.0	0
Veton TushaNK Celje · M	415	1.95	1.08	2.6	0.65	0.22	1

Advised props

Artemijus Tutyskinas to be Carded

Artemijus Tutyskinas has been booked in 7 of his last 10 for NK Celje, at 0.54 per 90 across 1,160 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.

NK Celje pick up 2.12 cards a game and there are 3.88 in their matches. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 32% implied by 21/10.

21/10Add

Pijus Sirvys to be Carded

Pijus Sirvys has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for NK Celje, at 0.53 per 90 across 681 minutes, and he averages 62 minutes a game when he plays.

NK Celje pick up 2.12 cards a game and there are 3.88 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.

15/8Add

Valmir Matoshi 1+ Fouls Committed

Valmir Matoshi has committed a foul in 10 of his last 10 for SK Sturm Graz, at 1.31 per 90 across 825 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.

NK Celje hold 59.35% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

TBC

Trends

Window shown per line

6/6100%SK Sturm Graz · Last six at homeSK Sturm Graz are unbeaten in every one of their last six at home.

6/6100%SK Sturm Graz · Last six at homeSK Sturm Graz have picked up two or more cards in every one of their last six at home.

5/683%SK Sturm Graz · Last sixSK Sturm Graz have gone past one and a half goals in five of their last six.

0/60%NK Celje · Last six awayNK Celje have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six on the road.

5/683%NK Celje · Last sixNK Celje are unbeaten in five of their last six.

5/683%NK Celje · Last sixNK Celje have picked up two or more cards in five of their last six.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

SK Sturm Graz

01 NovWolfsberger AC (A)1-1D

29 OctSC Austria Lustenau (A)2-3L

25 OctSV Ried (H)2-2D

22 OctOlympique de Marseille (H)1-0W

18 OctGrazer AK 1902 (H)6-1W

15 OctBournemouth (A)0-3L

NK Celje

01 NovNK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)4-0W

28 OctNK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)1-1D

22 OctRed Bull Salzburg (H)2-2D

18 OctNK Maribor (A)0-0D

15 OctOmonia Nicosia (H)0-3L

10 OctNK Aluminij Kidricevo (H)1-0W

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Build Your Own SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje Bet

Artemijus Tutyskinas to be Carded21/103.10

Why this bet

7 of his last 10, 0.54 per 90

Pijus Sirvys to be Carded15/82.88

Why this bet

4 of his last 10, 0.53 per 90

Valmir Matoshi 1+ Fouls CommittedTBC

Why this bet

Valmir Matoshi has committed a foul in 10 of his last 10 for SK Sturm Graz, at 1.31 per 90 across 825 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.NK Celje hold 59.35% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Correct Score 1-08/19.00

Why this bet

On the venue splits this projects SK Sturm Graz 1.60 against NK Celje 1.15, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.1%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs SK Sturm Graz, which is where the board has the match too.

Under 2.5 Goals11/82.38

Why this bet

SK Sturm Graz are expected 1.46 at home and NK Celje 0.88 away, so 2.34 in the match. Our numbers make it 59% against the 42% the price implies.

Both Teams to Score – No11/102.10

Why this bet

One side is expected to be kept out – 1.46 against 0.88. Our numbers make it 55% against the 48% the price implies.

Over 3.5 Cards4/61.67

Why this bet

SK Sturm Graz average 4.25 cards in a match and NK Celje 3.88, so 4.06 here. Our numbers make it 58% against the 60% the price implies.

No legs selected

Prices change, so check the slip before you stake. bet365 does not allow every combination of legs within one game.

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Andy Clark

Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.