Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille Predictions and Stats

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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille

Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 · Europa League

Bayer 04 LeverkusenLLWWWW
Olympique de MarseilleWWLWLW
Our predictionFacundo Medina 1+ Shots5/6

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Bayer 04 Leverkusen 16 in the Bundesliga and 3 in the Europa League and 1 in the Champions League, Olympique de Marseille 3 in the Europa League and 17 in another competition

Goals

2.25Scored per game1.55
1.60Conceded per game1.55
Home gamesAway games
2.67Scored1.00
1.33Conceded1.70
Correct Score 2-18/1

On the venue splits this projects Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.40 against Olympique de Marseille 1.50, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.3%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

2.37xG for1.67
1.64xG against1.91
-0.12Goals vs xG-0.12
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Win4/11

Bayer 04 Leverkusen come in on L L W W W W, and at home they have scored 2.67 a game and conceded 1.33 across 9 matches. They have won 11 of their last 20 overall, drawing 3.

Olympique de Marseille average 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded. The venue splits project 2.40 against 1.50, which puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at about 63% to win, against 19% for the draw.

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Under and Over

95%Over 1.5 goals80%
70%Over 2.5 goals55%
50%Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 2.5 Goals4/9

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Olympique de Marseille in 55%, with 95% and 80% going past 1.5.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2.25 scored and 1.60 conceded, Olympique de Marseille 1.55 and 1.55. On the venue splits that projects 2.40 against 1.50, about 3.9 goals in the match and 69% for over 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

60%Both teams scored50%
6 of 20Clean sheets4 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score6 of 20
Both Teams to Score4/6

Both teams have scored in 12 of Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s last 20 matches and 10 of Olympique de Marseille’s. Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede 1.60 a game and Olympique de Marseille 1.55.

On the venue splits the projection is 2.40 against 1.50, which puts both teams scoring at about 63%.

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Shots

19.05Shots per game14.85
6.80On target per game5.10
35.7%Accuracy34.3%

Corners

7.35Won per game5.10
2.95First half2.70
40.1%Share before the break52.9%
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Cards and Fouls

3.80Cards in the match3.95
1.70Own cards per game1.95
1.35Cards by half time1.40
10.45Fouls committed11.85

Shooting Detail

13.45Shots inside the box9.55
5.60Shots outside the box5.30
7.55Off target6.40
4.70Blocked3.35

Big Chances

4.10Big chances created3.15
2.60Big chances missed2.00
37%Taken37%
35.70Touches in the box27.30

Record

11-3-6Won, drawn, lost8-1-11
6 of 20Clean sheets4 of 20
2 of 20Failed to score6 of 20

Possession

58.80%Average share55.60%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Edmond TapsobaBayer 04 Leverkusen · D16360.720.330.720.391.323
Aleix GarciaBayer 04 Leverkusen · M16071.340.340.340.221.344
Ibrahim MazaBayer 04 Leverkusen · M15812.960.81.371.481.714
Patrik SchickBayer 04 Leverkusen · F14474.352.050.750.930.52
Jarell QuansahBayer 04 Leverkusen · D13351.010.341.080.541.424
Robert AndrichBayer 04 Leverkusen · M9681.210.371.390.651.671
Ezequiel FernandezBayer 04 Leverkusen · M8170.990.221.431.762.863
Facundo MedinaBayer 04 Leverkusen · D8160.220.111.210.330.774
Alejandro GrimaldoBayer 04 Leverkusen · D8102.330.670.110.442.00
Miguel GutierrezBayer 04 Leverkusen · D8021.120.341.120.671.121
Exequiel PalaciosBayer 04 Leverkusen · M7810.690.120.461.381.732
Malik TillmanBayer 04 Leverkusen · M7251.990.991.741.371.241
Afonso MoreiraBayer 04 Leverkusen · F7083.311.531.271.911.021
Nathan TellaBayer 04 Leverkusen · F6193.931.311.161.61.020
Montrell CulbreathBayer 04 Leverkusen · D5850.920.150.621.082.770
Christian KofaneBayer 04 Leverkusen · F4934.20.912.190.910.730
Lucas VazquezBayer 04 Leverkusen · F4600.980.20.981.570.390
Pierre-Emile HojbjergOlympique de Marseille · M14361.570.51.821.321.52
Timothy WeahOlympique de Marseille · D13891.360.391.170.522.144
Amine GouiriOlympique de Marseille · F13752.160.850.981.240.722
EmersonOlympique de Marseille · D13460.670.070.470.81.341
Igor PaixaoOlympique de Marseille · M13242.991.161.091.631.561
Himad AbdelliOlympique de Marseille · M10080.890.271.160.541.961
CJ Egan-RileyOlympique de Marseille · D9870.090.090.460.821.371
Amine HaritOlympique de Marseille · M8371.290.750.651.831.292
Nayef AguerdOlympique de Marseille · D7760.70.120.930.120.71
Tochukwu NnadiOlympique de Marseille · M7140.880.132.651.641.762
Angel GomesOlympique de Marseille · M6761.60.41.21.331.463
Leonardo BalerdiOlympique de Marseille · D6411.260.280.980.422.111
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangOlympique de Marseille · F5533.742.120.650.330.160
Quinten TimberOlympique de Marseille · F5270.850.171.541.21.712
Mason GreenwoodOlympique de Marseille · F4843.91.860.932.420.741
Benjamin PavardOlympique de Marseille · D4590.590.01.570.981.372
Keyliane AbdallahOlympique de Marseille · F4303.771.051.471.260.422

Advised props

Facundo Medina 1+ Shots

Facundo Medina has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 0.99 per 90 across 816 minutes, and he averages 74 minutes a game when he plays.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen take 19.05 shots a game and hit 6.8 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.

5/6Add
Ibrahim Maza 4+ Shots

Ibrahim Maza has had 4 or more shots in 5 of his last 10 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 2.96 per 90 across 1,581 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen take 19.05 shots a game and hit 6.8 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.

6/4Add
Aleix Garcia 2+ Shots

Aleix Garcia has had 2 or more shots in 5 of his last 10 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 1.34 per 90 across 1,607 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen take 19.05 shots a game and hit 6.8 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.

5/4Add
Tochukwu Nnadi 2+ Fouls Committed

Tochukwu Nnadi has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for Olympique de Marseille, at 2.65 per 90 across 714 minutes, and he averages 60 minutes a game when he plays.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hold 58.8% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.

5/6Add

Trends

Window shown per line
6/6100%Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Last sixBayer 04 Leverkusen have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six.
6/6100%Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Last six at homeBayer 04 Leverkusen have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six at home.
6/6100%Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Last six at homeBayer 04 Leverkusen have scored in every one of their last six at home.
0/60%Olympique de Marseille · Last sixOlympique de Marseille have seen eleven or more corners in the match in 0 of their last six.
5/683%Olympique de Marseille · Last sixOlympique de Marseille have committed twelve or more fouls in five of their last six.
1/617%Olympique de Marseille · Last sixOlympique de Marseille have won six or more corners in one of their last six.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

31 OctVfB Stuttgart (H)2-4L
25 OctTSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3L
22 OctOFI Crete (A)2-0W
18 OctSC Freiburg (H)2-1W
15 OctLech Poznan (A)4-0W
10 Oct1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3W

Olympique de Marseille

01 NovToulouse (H)2-0W
25 OctLe Havre (H)4-3W
22 OctSK Sturm Graz (A)0-1L
18 OctAngers (A)5-2W
15 OctOlympiacos FC (H)0-1L
11 OctTroyes (A)2-0W
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Build Your Own Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille Bet

Facundo Medina 1+ Shots5/61.83
Why this bet7 of his last 10, 0.99 per 90
Ibrahim Maza 4+ Shots6/42.50
Why this bet5 of his last 10, 2.96 per 90
Aleix Garcia 2+ Shots5/42.25
Why this bet5 of his last 10, 1.34 per 90
Tochukwu Nnadi 2+ Fouls Committed5/61.83
Why this bet6 of his last 10, 2.65 per 90
Both Teams to Score4/61.67
Why this bet63% on our numbers
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Win4/111.36
Why this betBayer 04 Leverkusen come in on L L W W W W, and at home they have scored 2.67 a game and conceded 1.33 across 9 matches. They have won 11 of their last 20 overall, drawing 3.Olympique de Marseille average 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded. The venue splits project 2.40 against 1.50, which puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at about 63% to win, against 19% for the draw.
Over 2.5 Goals4/91.44
Why this betBayer 04 Leverkusen have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Olympique de Marseille in 55%, with 95% and 80% going past 1.5.Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2.25 scored and 1.60 conceded, Olympique de Marseille 1.55 and 1.55. On the venue splits that projects 2.40 against 1.50, about 3.9 goals in the match and 69% for over 2.5.
Correct Score 2-18/19.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.40 against Olympique de Marseille 1.50, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.3%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which is where the board has the match too.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Win and Both Teams to Score8/52.60
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win is about 63% and both teams scoring about 63%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen score 2.25 a game and concede 1.60, and Olympique de Marseille have scored in 10 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 8/5.
Under 3.5 Cards6/52.20
Why this betBayer 04 Leverkusen average 3.80 cards in a match and Olympique de Marseille 3.95, so 3.88 here. Our numbers make it 46% against the 45% the price implies.
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