Felix Zwayer takes charge of this Champions League play-off, and he books 4.63 players a game across 432 career matches — the highest rate of any referee we have covered. Both sides oblige him. Slovan’s matches average 3.75 cards across the two teams and Celje’s 4.22, while Celje commit 12.94 fouls a game, more than any side in any fixture we have looked at this season.
The two teams are near mirror images in front of goal. Slovan have kept ten clean sheets in twenty and seen both sides score in only 30% of their matches. Celje have failed to score just once in twenty but keep clean sheets in fewer than a third.
Our model makes Slovan 58% to win, the draw 23% and Celje 19%, after adjusting the Slovenian side’s figures for the gap between the two leagues. Slovakia carries a UEFA coefficient of 15.625 against Slovenia’s 10.375, the widest gap of this week’s play-off ties.
One number worth a second look. Slovan score more away from home than at it, 2.11 a game against 1.91, and concede 0.67 on the road against 1.00 at home. That is unusual, and it makes next week’s return in Celje look the more comfortable of the two legs for them.
Full comparison and the ranked selections are below.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
