Belgium vs Italy Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Andy Clark
Belgium v Italy - Nations League predictions and stats
New Customer Offer · BetVictor

Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

New customers only. Opt in, deposit & bet £10+ on any sports market at minimum 1/1 odds within 7 days of registration. No cash out. Get £30 in Free Bets for selected markets. Free Bets expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly. 18+ | #ad | GambleAware.org

Belgium vs Italy

Sun 15 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

BelgiumWLWLWL
ItalyWWDWLW

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Belgium 5 in the Nations League and 15 across three others, Italy 8 in the Nations League and 12 across two others

Goals

2.60Scored per game2.10
0.95Conceded per game1.35
Home gamesAway games
2.67Scored2.10
0.44Conceded1.40
Correct Score 2-18/1

On the venue splits this projects Belgium 2.06 against Italy 1.16, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.9%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Belgium, which is where the board has the match too.

Add to Slip

Expected Goals

2.01xG for1.85
0.96xG against1.25
+0.59Goals vs xG+0.25
Belgium to Win23/20

Belgium have won 11 of their last 20, drawing 6, and at home they have scored 2.67 a game and conceded 0.44 across 9 matches.

Italy average 2.10 scored and 1.35 conceded. The venue splits project 2.06 against 1.16, which puts Belgium at about 51% to win, against 21% for the draw.

Add to Slip

Under and Over

85%Over 1.5 goals90%
60%Over 2.5 goals60%
45%Over 3.5 goals45%
Over 2.5 Goals7/10

Belgium have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Italy in 60%, with 85% and 90% going past 1.5.

Belgium average 2.60 scored and 0.95 conceded, Italy 2.10 and 1.35. On the venue splits that projects 2.06 against 1.16, about 3.2 goals in the match and 61% for over 2.5.

Add to Slip
New Customer Offer · Ladbrokes

Bet £5 get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply. 18+ | #ad | GambleAware.org

Both Teams to Score

55%Both teams scored55%
8 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20
3 of 20Failed to score2 of 20
Both Teams to Score8/13

Both teams have scored in 11 of Belgium’s last 20 matches and 11 of Italy’s. Belgium concede 0.95 a game and Italy 1.35.

On the venue splits the projection is 2.06 against 1.16, which puts both teams scoring at about 57%.

Add to Slip

Shots

17.85Shots per game16.70
6.85On target per game5.65
38.4%Accuracy33.8%

Corners

6.15Won per game5.60
3.40First half2.90
55.3%Share before the break51.8%
Over 9.5 Corners5/6

Belgium win 6.15 corners a game and Italy 5.6, with 3.4 and 2.9 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 12 in the match, a 74% chance of 10 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.

Add to Slip
New Customer Offer · BoyleSports

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. T&Cs Apply. 18+ | #ad | GambleAware.org

Cards and Fouls

3.50Cards in the match3.75
1.55Own cards per game1.75
1.15Cards by half time1.10
10.90Fouls committed11.30
Under 4.5 Cards4/5

Belgium average 3.50 cards in a match and Italy 3.75, so 3.62 here. Our numbers make it 70% against the 56% the price implies.

Add to Slip

Shooting Detail

12.05Shots inside the box11.70
5.80Shots outside the box5.00
6.05Off target6.05
4.95Blocked5.00

Big Chances

3.00Big chances created3.00
1.55Big chances missed1.75
48%Taken42%
41.00Touches in the box29.60

Record

11-6-3Won, drawn, lost12-3-5
8 of 20Clean sheets7 of 20
3 of 20Failed to score2 of 20

Possession

53.90%Average share52.55%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Timothy CastagneBelgium · D14730.610.181.220.432.142
Brandon MecheleBelgium · D12930.770.210.90.421.741
Youri TielemansBelgium · M12511.940.51.441.872.092
Charles De KetelaereBelgium · F12321.831.240.730.661.461
Nicolas RaskinBelgium · M12241.030.512.130.882.281
Kevin De BruyneBelgium · M12054.261.721.050.970.974
Maxim De CuyperBelgium · D11821.60.691.070.231.522
Nathan NgoyBelgium · D10440.430.170.950.691.291
Jeremy DokuBelgium · F10382.61.30.694.080.520
Leandro TrossardBelgium · F9512.740.760.571.320.760
Hans VanakenBelgium · M8562.310.740.740.841.260
Arthur TheateBelgium · D7760.930.120.930.230.812
Thomas MeunierBelgium · D5971.510.61.960.31.961
Dodi LukebakioBelgium · F5063.741.961.250.891.251
Amadou OnanaBelgium · M4931.10.181.281.462.561
Alexis SaelemaekersBelgium · F4014.041.121.122.021.121
Sandro TonaliItaly · M14181.650.571.211.461.331
Alessandro BastoniItaly · D12700.920.281.281.281.567
Nicolo BarellaItaly · M12530.720.071.651.222.014
Riccardo CalafioriItaly · D8741.240.310.620.511.540
Francesco Pio EspositoItaly · F7993.942.371.83.040.562
Federico DimarcoItaly · D7782.20.690.460.580.930
Mateo ReteguiItaly · F7773.711.391.511.510.810
Gianluca ManciniItaly · D7500.840.360.480.60.241
Moise KeanItaly · F7094.062.160.891.780.631
Manuel LocatelliItaly · M4971.090.182.720.722.350
Matteo PolitanoItaly · D4861.480.190.191.670.740

Advised props

Riccardo Calafiori 1+ Shots

Riccardo Calafiori has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.24 per 90 across 874 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.65 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 58% implied by 8/11.

8/11Add
Kevin De Bruyne 4+ Shots

Kevin De Bruyne has had 4 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 4.26 per 90 across 1,205 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.

5/4Add
Youri Tielemans 2+ Shots

Youri Tielemans has had 2 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.94 per 90 across 1,251 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.

Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.

5/6Add
Brandon Mechele 1+ Shots

Brandon Mechele has had a shot in 5 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 0.77 per 90 across 1,293 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.

Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 42% implied by 11/8.

11/8Add
Moise Kean 1+ Shots on Target

Moise Kean has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 10 for Italy, at 2.16 per 90 across 709 minutes, and he averages 71 minutes a game when he plays.

Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.65 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Trends

Window shown per line
17/2085%Belgium · Last 20Belgium have gone past one and a half goals in 17 of their last twenty.
17/2085%Belgium · Last 20Belgium have scored in 17 of their last twenty.
17/2085%Belgium · Last 20Belgium are unbeaten in 17 of their last twenty.
0/60%Italy · Last sixItaly have won five or more corners in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Italy · Last sixItaly have won six or more corners in 0 of their last six.
6/6100%Italy · Last six awayItaly have scored in every one of their last six on the road.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Belgium

12 NovTurkiye (A)2-1W
05 OctFrance (A)1-4L
02 OctTurkiye (H)3-0W
28 SepFrance (H)0-1L
25 SepItaly (A)2-0W
10 JulSpain (A)1-2L

Italy

12 NovFrance (H)3-1W
05 OctTurkiye (H)3-1W
02 OctFrance (A)1-1D
28 SepTurkiye (A)4-1W
25 SepBelgium (H)0-2L
07 JunGreece (A)1-0W
New Customer Offer · Betfred

Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

New customers only. Register, deposit with a Debit Card, and place a first bet of £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports, to be settled within 7 days, to get £30 in Sports Free Bets and £20 in Bet Builder Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ | #ad | GambleAware.org

Build Your Own Belgium vs Italy Bet

Riccardo Calafiori 1+ Shots8/111.73
Why this betRiccardo Calafiori has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.24 per 90 across 874 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.65 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 58% implied by 8/11.
Kevin De Bruyne 4+ Shots5/42.25
Why this betKevin De Bruyne has had 4 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 4.26 per 90 across 1,205 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.
Youri Tielemans 2+ Shots5/61.83
Why this betYouri Tielemans has had 2 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.94 per 90 across 1,251 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.
Brandon Mechele 1+ Shots11/82.38
Why this betBrandon Mechele has had a shot in 5 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 0.77 per 90 across 1,293 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium take 17.85 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 42% implied by 11/8.
Moise Kean 1+ Shots on Target
Why this betMoise Kean has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 10 for Italy, at 2.16 per 90 across 709 minutes, and he averages 71 minutes a game when he plays.Italy take 16.7 shots a game and hit 5.65 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Arthur Theate 1+ Fouls Committed5/61.83
Why this betArthur Theate has committed a foul in 6 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 0.93 per 90 across 776 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Italy hold 52.55% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.
Alessandro Bastoni 2+ Fouls Committed7/42.75
Why this betAlessandro Bastoni has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 1.28 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium hold 53.9% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.
Alessandro Bastoni to be Carded9/43.25
Why this betAlessandro Bastoni has been booked in 6 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.5 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Italy pick up 1.75 cards a game and there are 3.75 in their matches. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 31% implied by 9/4.
Over 9.5 Corners5/61.83
Why this betBelgium win 6.15 corners a game and Italy 5.6, with 3.4 and 2.9 of those in the first half.That leaves about 12 in the match, a 74% chance of 10 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.
Belgium to Win23/202.15
Why this betBelgium have won 11 of their last 20, drawing 6, and at home they have scored 2.67 a game and conceded 0.44 across 9 matches.Italy average 2.10 scored and 1.35 conceded. The venue splits project 2.06 against 1.16, which puts Belgium at about 51% to win, against 21% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score8/131.62
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 11 of Belgium’s last 20 matches and 11 of Italy’s. Belgium concede 0.95 a game and Italy 1.35.On the venue splits the projection is 2.06 against 1.16, which puts both teams scoring at about 57%.
Over 2.5 Goals7/101.70
Why this betBelgium have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Italy in 60%, with 85% and 90% going past 1.5.Belgium average 2.60 scored and 0.95 conceded, Italy 2.10 and 1.35. On the venue splits that projects 2.06 against 1.16, about 3.2 goals in the match and 61% for over 2.5.
Correct Score 2-18/19.00
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Belgium 2.06 against Italy 1.16, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.9%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Belgium, which is where the board has the match too.
Belgium to Win and Both Teams to Score3/14.00
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: Belgium to win is about 51% and both teams scoring about 57%. Belgium score 2.60 a game and concede 0.95, and Italy have scored in 11 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 3/1.
No legs selected

Prices change, so check the slip before you stake. bet365 does not allow every combination of legs within one game.

More Nations League Predictions

Today

14:00Cyprus vs MontenegroUEFA Nations League12 tips14:00Latvia vs ArmeniaUEFA Nations League7 tips17:00Belarus vs AlbaniaUEFA Nations League7 tips17:00Finland vs San MarinoUEFA Nations League7 tips19:45Belgium vs ItalyUEFA Nations League19 tips19:45Croatia vs CzechiaUEFA Nations League15 tips19:45France vs TürkiyeUEFA Nations League13 tips19:45Spain vs EnglandUEFA Nations League14 tips

Today’s Football Tips

18matches liveNations League Tips17matches liveBet Builder Tips12tips liveCards Tips13/24-fold todayBoth Teams to Score Tips28/13-fold todayBoth Teams to Score & Win Tips33/14-fold todayShots on Target Tips5/13-fold todayCorners Tips15/24-fold todayTotal Goals Tips7tips liveAnytime Scorer Tips3/14-fold todayAccumulator Tips16tips liveCorrect Score Tips

Thatsagoal Features

More features