On the venue splits this projects North Macedonia 1.03 against Slovenia 1.02, and 0-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 13.2%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Slovenia, which is where the board has the match too.

North Macedonia have stayed under 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Slovenia in 65%, with just 20% and 10% of their matches going past 3.5.

North Macedonia average 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, Slovenia 0.85 and 0.95. On the venue splits that projects 1.03 against 1.02, about 2.0 goals in the match and 63% for under 2.5.

Both teams have scored in 6 of North Macedonia’s last 20 matches and 9 of Slovenia’s. North Macedonia have kept 8 clean sheets in that run and failed to score in 10, against 8 and 9 for Slovenia.

At home North Macedonia score 1.12 a game and concede 1.00; away from home Slovenia score 0.91 and concede 1.18. That puts at least one side blanking at about 61%.

North Macedonia win 3.05 corners a game and Slovenia 3.56, with 1.68 and 1.94 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 7 in the match, a 66% chance of 7 or fewer against the 55% implied by 5/6.