Paul Merson has predicted Arsenal to win the 2026/27 Premier League title — and he thinks they’ll do it comfortably.
In his Sky Sports column, the pundit picked his full top six, named the sides he sees as relegation contenders, and tipped one team to overachieve. Here’s a breakdown of every Merson prediction for the new season.
Paul Merson’s Predicted Top Six 2026/27
| Position | Team |
|---|---|
| 1st | Arsenal |
| 2nd | Liverpool |
| 3rd | Chelsea |
| 4th | Manchester City |
| 5th | Tottenham |
| 6th | Manchester United |
Paul Merson’s predictions, via his Sky Sports column (19 August 2026). His opinion, not a guarantee.
1st: Arsenal
Merson makes Arsenal clear title favourites and expects them to win comfortably, saying he can’t see a single Premier League weakness in Mikel Arteta’s side. He compares their strength in depth to the early days of Manchester City’s dominance — quality in two players for every position — pointing to how seamlessly cover like Cristhian Mosquera and Ben White slots in without weakening the team. He was struck by the impact of Viktor Gyokeres and Eberechi Eze off the bench in the Community Shield win over Manchester City, and rates Christos Tzolis as a reliable, do-your-job wide option. Merson expects Arsenal to add a marquee signing before the window shuts and puts their points total around the 85-86 mark, concluding that the only side who can beat Arsenal is Arsenal themselves.
2nd: Liverpool
Merson has Liverpool second but sees consistency as their obstacle after an up-and-down last season. He questions whether their squad has Arsenal’s depth, arguing their key men would need to stay fit and play 36 or 37 games to sustain a title challenge. He also feels they still haven’t adequately replaced the goals of Mohamed Salah, and wants to see Florian Wirtz kick on in his second season in England, while noting Alexander Isak’s injury-hit campaign leaves a question over his levels.
3rd: Chelsea
Merson sees Chelsea’s lack of European football as a major advantage — playing once a week, the way they did when they last won the title in 2017. He rates their squad depth and believes Xabi Alonso, whom he considers a top coach, needs to build the side around getting Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers on the pitch together as his two key creators, possibly in a back three. His one concern is congestion in attacking areas, with Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro all wanting the ball — but he thinks a well-drilled Chelsea can have a strong season, just short of Arsenal’s points tally.
4th: Manchester City
Merson doesn’t see Manchester City competing with Arsenal over 38 games, and was critical of the decision to sell Rodri after the Community Shield. He acknowledged positives — notably Gianluigi Donnarummas’s goalkeeping — but feels that over a full season City won’t be able to live with Arsenal.
5th: Tottenham
Tottenham are Merson’s dark horses for the top six. He credits their recruitment, particularly in midfield where he feels they’ve long lacked a dominant presence, and rates Roberto De Zerbi’s coaching — again highlighting the benefit of a once-a-week schedule with no European travel. He makes the point that Spurs may now edge out Aston Villa for a top-six spot, a reversal of the sides’ fortunes from last season.
6th: Manchester United
Merson has Manchester United sixth but doesn’t view them as title challengers yet, worrying about a thin squad if they have to juggle Europe. He’d have real concerns if Bruno Fernandes were injured, isn’t convinced by a dominant midfield despite the arrival of Youri Tielemans (whom he rates), and questions the Andrey Santos signing. He expects ups and downs, with a defence that can still be leaky and an attack that runs hot and cold.
Merson’s Relegation Contenders
Merson’s take on the drop is that it isn’t necessarily about the three promoted clubs — he flags established sides like Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle as ones who could be dragged into trouble. He likes Bournemouth but worries about their squad depth if injuries bite alongside European commitments, and questions the situation at Newcastle. His key message for any side wanting to stay up is to start well and get points on the board early, because promoted teams rarely finish strongly. He singles out Coventry v Hull in the second gameweek as an early must-win, especially for Coventry, who face Arsenal and Manchester City either side of it.
Merson’s Overachievers: Brentford
Merson’s pick to overachieve is Brentford, who he expects to be in the mix for European places again. He rates Keith Andrews’ side and was impressed by their pre-season, and also name-checks Brighton as a team likely to upset the bigger clubs — noting that dropping points to sides like these is exactly what can cost a team the title.
How Merson’s Predictions Compare
Merson’s forecast lines up with the bookmakers in making Arsenal title favourites, though his relegation angle — backing established mid-table clubs to struggle rather than the promoted three — is a bolder call. For a data-led view of the season, see the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, and for how the pundits call each round, our weekly Paul Merson predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who does Paul Merson predict will win the Premier League in 2026/27? Paul Merson predicts Arsenal will win the 2026/27 Premier League title, and expects them to do so comfortably.
What is Paul Merson’s predicted top six for 2026/27? Merson’s top six is Arsenal (1st), Liverpool (2nd), Chelsea (3rd), Manchester City (4th), Tottenham (5th) and Manchester United (6th).
Who does Paul Merson think will be relegated? Merson flags established clubs — Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle — as sides who could be dragged into a relegation battle, rather than pinning it solely on the three promoted teams.
Who is Paul Merson’s team to overachieve? Merson tips Brentford to overachieve and challenge for European places, and expects Brighton to upset bigger clubs too.
Where does Paul Merson predict Manchester City will finish? Merson predicts Manchester City will finish 4th, and doesn’t see them competing with Arsenal over the full season.
More predictions and tips: Paul Merson weekly predictions · Premier League tips · Premier League predictions · Premier League free bets
Predictions are the opinion of Paul Merson, reported from his Sky Sports column, and are not guarantees. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk.
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
