Every World Cup produces at least one surprise package. In 2022, Morocco shattered expectations by becoming the first African nation ever to reach a World Cup semi-final, defeating Belgium, Spain and Portugal along the way. With the expanded 48-team format for 2026 potentially opening up the knockout bracket even further, the opportunity for another outsider run feels greater than ever.
Among the nations capable of upsetting the established order this summer, three teams stand out for me: Morocco, Norway and Senegal. None sit among the traditional favourites such as France, Brazil or Argentina, yet all possess a wealth of top-level talent and some big tournament pedigree capable of carrying them deep into the competition.
For the full tournament picture, see our World Cup 2026 odds, tips and predictions hub, and for where the favourites sit, our England World Cup 2026 odds page.
Morocco to Reach the Semi-Finals (10/1)
Morocco can hardly be described as complete outsiders anymore after their extraordinary run in Qatar, but many still underestimate just how strong this squad remains heading into 2026.
The Atlas Lions qualified comfortably for the tournament, topping their CAF group with a perfect record through six matches, scoring freely while remaining defensively disciplined. They are unbeaten in their last 27 matches, including friendlies, dating back to August 2025, when they were beaten by Kenya, their only defeat in two years.
The spine of the side remains outstanding. Captain Achraf Hakimi is arguably one of the best attacking full-backs in world football, while midfield anchor Sofyan Amrabat provides balance, aggression and tactical intelligence. Defensively, former West Ham defender Nayef Aguerd, now of Marseille, and Manchester United’s Noussair Mazraoui add experience at the highest European level.
They are comfortable sitting deep and counter-attacking, as seen in Qatar, but they are now far more confident dominating possession against lesser opposition. The emergence of younger attacking players has also added creativity to a team once criticised for lacking cutting edge.
Importantly, Morocco now possesses belief at the highest level. Their 2022 run removed the psychological barrier that often affects outsider nations in knockout football. They no longer enter matches against elite nations hoping to compete; they genuinely expect to win.
They come into this World Cup in a group featuring Brazil, Haiti and Scotland, so they should progress to the knockout stages. If the knockout draw breaks favourably, another semi-final appearance is far from unrealistic.
Norway to Reach the Semi-Finals (11/2)
For years, Norway were labelled international football’s great underachievers. Despite possessing world-class talent, they repeatedly failed to qualify for major tournaments. That narrative has now changed.
Norway stormed through qualification, winning all eight matches, scoring 37 goals and finishing ahead of Italy in their group. Those stats alone underline how dangerous the Norway national team have become, and with Erling Haaland the focal point of their attack, I think they can go deep into the competition.
Haaland scored an astonishing 16 goals during qualification and remains one of the most devastating forwards in world football. Following disappointment in the Premier League with Man City, he will be hungry to impress on the world stage and help his side go far in America this summer.
Martin Ødegaard gives Norway control and creativity in midfield, dictating matches with intelligence and technical quality.
However, the Norwegians are far more than just a two-man team. Alexander Sørloth offers a physical alternative in attack, while exciting young wingers like Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb provide pace and unpredictability that will instil fear into a lot of defenders, even at an elite level.
In previous tournaments, difficult groups often eliminated strong second-tier nations early. With more knockout places available, Norway’s attacking firepower makes them a dangerous proposition once they reach the latter stages.
There are legitimate questions about tournament experience. This is Norway’s first World Cup since 1998, but momentum matters in international football. They come into this tournament with eight wins from eight in qualifying, and I think they have a great chance this summer.
Haaland also features in my World Cup 2026 top goalscorer tips as a wildcard pick for the Golden Boot.
Senegal to Reach the Semi-Finals (20/1)
At the longest odds of the three teams on this list, Senegal are the least likely to reach the semi-final, but I think they’re definitely worth a mention at odds of 20/1.
Since winning the Africa Cup of Nations in 2022, the Lions of Teranga have continued to combine physicality, tactical discipline and top-level experience. They reached the African Cup of Nations final this year, which was a controversial tie. They won the game 1-0 on the park, but after a walk-off from Senegal after they were outraged over a VAR decision to award Morocco a penalty, which they eventually missed, Morocco were awarded a 3-0 win, and crowned champions.
Their World Cup qualification campaign again demonstrated their resilience. Senegal topped their CAF group and sealed qualification with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Mauritania, winning seven and drawing three of their 10 matches in the process.
Many were surprised to see Sadio Mane included in their World Cup squad, and it would be incredible to see him shine at the highest level once more. As well as that, they possess talent across the board. Kalidou Koulibaly remains one of the tournament’s most experienced defenders, while midfielders such as Pape Matar Sarr bring energy and quality.
In a World Cup increasingly defined by tactical organisation and squad depth rather than simply superstar names, Morocco, Norway and Senegal all possess the ingredients needed for a deep run. None would be favourites to lift the trophy, but each has a realistic pathway to the final four, and is at good odds to do so.
Jake Gray’s World Cup Dark Horse Picks — Summary
| Team | To Reach the Semi-Final | Group |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 10/1 | Group C (with Brazil, Haiti, Scotland) |
| Norway | 11/2 | Group I (with France, Senegal, Iraq) |
| Senegal | 20/1 | Group I (with France, Norway, Iraq) |
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Always check live prices with your bookmaker before betting.
Best Bookmakers for World Cup Dark Horse Betting
Dark horse and each-way betting suits bookmakers offering competitive outright prices and strong each-way terms. A few welcome offers worth considering for World Cup outright markets:
For the full comparison of World Cup welcome offers, see our World Cup 2026 free bets hub.
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More World Cup 2026 Betting Tips
- World Cup 2026 Odds, Tips and Predictions Hub — the complete betting guide
- World Cup 2026 Top Goalscorer Tips — Jake Gray’s Golden Boot picks
- Germany 2026 World Cup Flop Predictions — Jake Gray on the favourite to disappoint
- England World Cup 2026 Odds — every England market analysed
- World Cup 2026 Group L Preview — England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
- World Cup 2026 Free Bets Hub — all UK welcome offers compared
Tips are the opinion of Jake Gray, provided for entertainment. Odds and prices change — always check with the bookmaker before betting. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org | GamCare.org.uk
Jake has been on the thatsagoal.com team for over 5 years, and he is the person responsible for the bet builders across the Premier League and Champions League. His background in journalism means the articles are perfectly written, and each prediction is explained with stats and reasoning to back them up. There have been countless winners from Jake, including a 66/1 win in the FA Cup final when Manchester City were beaten by Crystal Palace.