Last Updated on 20/04/2026 by Andy Clark
Jake has been on the thatsagoal.com team for over 5 years, and he is the person responsible for the bet builders across the Premier League and Champions League. His background in journalism means the articles are perfectly written, and each prediction is explained with stats and reasoning to back them up. There have been countless winners from Jake, including a 66/1 win in the FA Cup final when Manchester City were beaten by Crystal Palace.
Northern Ireland travel to Italy for a crucial World Cup qualifying playoff this Thursday, and below you will find our Italy vs Northern Ireland bet builder tips, predictions and the best free bet offers for the fixture.
Our four-leg bet builder is priced at 13/1 with BetMGM, featuring Italy to win, both teams to score, a shots on target selection and a card pick.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Bet Builder — 13/1 with BetMGM
Northern Ireland head to Italy for a crucial fixture this Thursday as they look to keep their hopes of a 2026 World Cup spot alive. It’ll be a very difficult match for Michael O’Neill’s side away from home, and it’s a tall order for them.
Italy won six of their eight World Cup qualifying matches, but finished six points behind group winners Norway who won eight of eight. Their two defeats came against Norway – 3-0 and 4-1.
Northern Ireland finished third out of four in their group, picking up nine points from six matches with three wins and three defeats. They finished three behind Slovakia in second, and six behind Germany who topped Group A.
Key Stats — Italy vs Northern Ireland
- Italy won six of their eight World Cup qualifying matches and have won four of their last five in all competitions
- Mateo Retegui scored five goals in eight World Cup qualifying appearances, averaging more than one shot on target per game with 10 in total
- Northern Ireland have failed to score in only two of their last 13 outings, dating back to October 2024
- Trai Hume has been booked eight times in 31 Premier League appearances this season and twice in two FA Cup outings — 10 bookings across all competitions
- Italy have conceded in six of their last 10 matches, including two heavy defeats to Norway in qualifying
- Northern Ireland scored in four of their six qualifying matches, including a 3-1 defeat to Germany
Italy Form and Match Preview
Italy won six of their eight World Cup qualifying matches, but finished six points behind group winners Norway who won eight of eight. Their two defeats came against Norway – 3-0 and 4-1.
Despite those Norway setbacks, Italy’s overall qualifying record is strong and they arrive into this playoff in good domestic form, winning four of their last five across all competitions. At home, with the expectation of Italian football behind them and a World Cup place on the line, they will be fully motivated to settle this tie quickly. Roberto Mancini’s squad carries significantly more quality than Northern Ireland at every position, and that gap should tell over 90 minutes.
Northern Ireland Form and Match Preview
Northern Ireland finished third out of four in their group, picking up nine points from six matches with three wins and three defeats. They finished three behind Slovakia in second, and six behind Germany who topped Group A.
Michael O’Neill’s side showed in qualifying that they are capable of competing — wins against Slovakia and Luxembourg demonstrate an ability to take points against comparable opposition. But this is a step up in class. Travelling to Italy away from home in a World Cup playoff is an enormous challenge for a squad drawn predominantly from the Championship and lower Premier League. Their best strategy will be to stay compact, stay in the game for as long as possible, and look to make something happen from a set piece or counter-attack.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Betting Tips
Italy to Win — 2/7
I can’t see past Italy to win in this one against Northern Ireland. They haven’t been the Italy we once knew, but they still have a very high calibre of player, and I fancy them to overcome Northern Ireland here. Italy have won six of their last 10 matches, including four of their last five. They scored five goals twice throughout qualifying, dismantling Estonia 5-0 and narrowly beating Israel in a 5-4 thriller. Northern Ireland had a very mixed qualifying campaign, losing twice to Germany and once to Slovakia, defeating the Slovak’s at home and winning twice against Luxembourg. Italy have stronger players and slightly better form, so I think they’ll win here, especially at home.
At 2/7, Italy to win is a short-priced foundation for the builder, but as the bedrock of a 13/1 combined bet it earns its place. The home advantage, quality gap, and four wins from five recent outings make this as close to a banker as you will find in a qualifying playoff fixture.
Best Bet Builder Tip — Both Teams to Score — 7/5
Despite backing Italy for the win, I do think Northern Ireland will put up a fight and get themselves on the scoresheet. They scored in four of their six qualifying matches, including in one of their defeats against Germany, a game that finished 3-1 to the Germans. Northern Ireland have only failed to scored in two of their last 13 outings, dating back to October 2024. Italy have scored in nine of their last 10, conceding in six of them. I think both teams to score is fantastic odds here at 7/5.
At 7/5, this is the value anchor of the builder. Northern Ireland scoring in 11 of their last 13 outings is the key number — this is not a side that simply parks the bus and hopes for a 0-0. Italy’s own tendency to concede, including six times in their last 10, means the door is genuinely open for a Northern Ireland goal. Both teams to score at 7/5 is the standout price on the card.
Mateo Retegui Over 1.5 Shots on Target — 4/5
Italy’s Mateo Retegui is the player I think will have multiple shots on target here. I expect Italy to create the majority of chances, and with Retegui’s form this season, several shots on target isn’t too much of a tall order. He plays for Al Quadisiya in the Saudi Pro League, and has scored 15 in 25 league outings this season, scoring another three in the Kings Cup. In World Cup qualifying, he scored five in eight, having 10 shots on target, an average of more than one per game. 4/5 is good odds for him to have a couple of shots on target against Northern Ireland.
Ten shots on target across eight qualifying appearances gives him a historical average of 1.25 per game — meaning his qualifying data already clears the 1.5 threshold more than half the time. Against a Northern Ireland side that will be defending deep and inviting Italy on, he will see plenty of the ball in dangerous areas throughout the 90 minutes. At 4/5, this is a well-supported leg.
Alternative Bet — Mateo Retegui to Score (10/11)
Odds of 10/11 for Retegui to score means the overall odds of this bet builder wouldn’t change. If you think there’s more chance of him taking one chance and scoring, than having over 1.5 shots on target, then this is a sensible bet. With five goals in eight for Italy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the scoresheet.
Trai Hume to Be Booked — 19/10
Sunderland right back Trai Hume has absolutely loved a booking this season. In the Premier League, he has been booked eight times in 31 matches. He has also been booked twice in his two FA Cup appearances. For Northern Ireland, he picked up one yellow card in five qualifying outings, making seven fouls, an average of more than one per game. He will be doing a lot of defending here against an Italy side who will have most of the ball, and I think he’s good odds to pick up another booking.
Ten bookings across all competitions is a booking every three games — an exceptional rate for a fullback. Against an Italy side that will dominate possession and attack repeatedly down the flanks, Hume will be under sustained pressure throughout. A defender who already averages more than one foul per game at international level, in a fixture where his side will be chasing the ball for long spells, is exactly the profile that attracts a referee’s attention early. At 19/10, this is the selection that drives the combined odds to 13/1 and represents the best value of the four legs.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Bet Builder Summary
| Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Italy to win | 2/7 |
| Both teams to score | 7/5 |
| Mateo Retegui over 1.5 shots on target | 4/5 |
| Trai Hume to be booked | 19/10 |
| Combined odds | 13/1 with BetMGM |
Get a Free Bet for Italy vs Northern Ireland
If you’re looking to place a bet on Thursday’s World Cup qualifying playoff, there are plenty of bookmaker sign-up offers available for new customers right now. Free bets are a great way to get involved with a risk-free stake — simply open a new account, place a qualifying bet, and your free bet is credited on settlement. See the latest offers from our recommended bookmakers below:
More World Cup and Betting Tips
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Odds correct at time of writing. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
Jake has been on the thatsagoal.com team for over 5 years, and he is the person responsible for the bet builders across the Premier League and Champions League. His background in journalism means the articles are perfectly written, and each prediction is explained with stats and reasoning to back them up. There have been countless winners from Jake, including a 66/1 win in the FA Cup final when Manchester City were beaten by Crystal Palace.