Premier League Relegation Battle: 9 Outcomes, 1 Drops Spurs

Last Updated on 20/05/2026 by Andy Clark

It’s come to this. Tottenham, with all their history, all their famous names, all the Premier League seasons since 1992 — face a final-day relegation battle on Sunday 24 May 2026. Two points ahead of West Ham with one game left. Everton at home. The Hammers face Leeds at the London Stadium.

There are 9 possible combinations of results on Sunday. Only 1 of them sends Spurs down: Spurs lose AND West Ham win. Any other result keeps Tottenham in the Premier League.

So yes — Spurs should survive. But Premier League final days have a knack for producing the impossible. Here’s the full picture.

The Current Premier League Table — Bottom of the League

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
16	Nottingham Forest	37	-3	43 (safe)
17	Tottenham	37	-10	38
18	West Ham	37	-22	36
19	Burnley	37	-37	21 (relegated)
20	Wolves	37	-41	19 (relegated)

Wolves and Burnley are already relegated. The third relegation spot is a straight shootout between Spurs and West Ham on the final day.

Spurs sit 2 points ahead of West Ham with a 12-goal advantage in goal difference. The 2-point gap is the key safety margin — Spurs only need to match West Ham’s result or come within 2 points of them. The goal difference cushion provides additional protection only if they finish level on points.

The Two Crucial Final-Day Fixtures

Both relegation-relevant fixtures kick off at the same time on Sunday, 24 May 2026.

Match	Kick-off	Venue
Tottenham vs Everton	4pm BST	Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
West Ham vs Leeds	4pm BST	London Stadium

Both matches kick off at 4pm BST as part of the synchronised Premier League final-day card. Every match on Sunday 24 May 2026 starts at 4pm BST — meaning the relegation picture will unfold across the 90 minutes in parallel.

All 9 Possible Outcomes — Spurs Survival Maths

The “Please Spurs” framing from the Tottenham fan community on social media is exactly right. Of the 9 possible combinations of results, only one — Spurs lose AND West Ham win — relegates Tottenham. In that single scenario, West Ham overtake Spurs on points and Spurs go down, regardless of goal difference.

#	Spurs vs Everton	West Ham vs Leeds	Result for Spurs
1	Spurs win	West Ham lose	✅ Safe
2	Spurs win	West Ham draw	✅ Safe
3	Spurs win	West Ham win	✅ Safe
4	Spurs draw	West Ham lose	✅ Safe
5	Spurs draw	West Ham draw	✅ Safe
6	Spurs draw	West Ham win	✅ Safe (level on points; Spurs ahead on goal difference)
7	Spurs lose	West Ham lose	✅ Safe
8	Spurs lose	West Ham draw	✅ Safe
9	Spurs lose	West Ham win	❌ RELEGATED

8 out of 9 outcomes = Spurs survive.

In scenario 6 (Spurs draw + West Ham win), both teams finish level on 39 points. Spurs’ 12-goal goal difference advantage decides it. Realistic combinations like West Ham 3-0 + Spurs 0-0 would still leave Spurs comfortably ahead on goal difference — only a 12+ goal combined swing on this scenario could change anything, which is effectively impossible.

In scenario 9 (Spurs lose + West Ham win), the maths is brutally simple. West Ham finish on 39 points; Spurs on 38. West Ham overtake Spurs in the table, and Spurs are relegated. Goal difference is irrelevant in this scenario — points alone decide it.

The Single Path to a Tottenham Relegation

For Spurs to actually go down on Sunday, two things must combine:

1. Spurs must lose to Everton at home. Spurs are favourites at home against a mid-table Everton side that’s already secured Premier League safety.

2. West Ham must beat Leeds. Leeds are mathematically safe but typically motivated; West Ham’s home form has been patchy all season.

If both conditions are met, West Ham overtake Spurs on points (39 vs 38) and Spurs are relegated. Goal difference doesn’t enter the equation — losing on points means losing on the league table.

If either condition fails — Spurs avoid defeat OR West Ham fail to win — Spurs stay up.

What Spurs Need to Do

The simplest path to safety is a single point from the Everton match. A 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 — any draw or win keeps Spurs in the Premier League regardless of what happens at the London Stadium.

If Spurs lose, they need West Ham to NOT win. A West Ham defeat or draw keeps Spurs safe. Only a Spurs defeat combined with a West Ham win sends Tottenham down.

Realistic Spurs scenario: Everton at home is the most winnable final-day fixture Spurs could have hoped for. Everton have nothing to play for, are away from home, and have been inconsistent throughout 2026. A Spurs win — securing Premier League survival outright — is the most likely outcome.

What West Ham Need to Do

For West Ham to survive, they need both:

1. West Ham must beat Leeds at home. Anything less than 3 points and they’re down regardless of what Spurs do.

2. Spurs must lose at home to Everton. A Spurs draw or win — either keeps Spurs above the line.

This is the only path. West Ham need to overturn the 2-point gap, and a win against Leeds combined with a Spurs defeat against Everton does exactly that — West Ham end on 39 points, Spurs on 38, and the Hammers leapfrog Tottenham in the table.

But it’s the kind of perfect-storm scenario that gets calculated on a back-of-an-envelope. West Ham must win their match. Spurs must lose theirs. Anything else and West Ham are relegated.

The brutal reality for West Ham fans: realistic relegation is the most likely outcome.

Tottenham vs Everton — Match Preview and Odds

Spurs are heavy favourites to win their relegation-deciding fixture at home against an Everton side with nothing to play for.

Outcome	Approximate Odds
Spurs to win	19/20
Draw	29/10
Everton to win	3/1

Spurs need just a point. They’re at home. Everton are 12th in the table, already safe, and travelling on the final day with limited motivation. The market reflects this.

The biggest risk for Spurs is psychological — the weight of expectation in a relegation-decider can produce strange performances. But the talent gap should win out at home.

West Ham vs Leeds — Match Preview and Odds

West Ham face Leeds at the London Stadium needing a win and a Spurs defeat — and even then needing a goal difference miracle.

Outcome	Approximate Odds
West Ham to win	17/20
Draw	3/1
Leeds to win	3/1

West Ham are favourites for their match but the broader picture is bleak. Even a comfortable home win likely won’t be enough.

Leeds are mathematically safe in 14th place with 47 points. They have no Premier League incentive but professional pride. Daniel Farke’s side typically plays attacking, expansive football regardless of context — meaning Leeds may well punish any West Ham defensive lapses.

How Did It Come to This for Spurs?

The 2025-26 season has been Tottenham’s worst Premier League campaign since the league’s formation in 1992. Spurs have been a fixture of the Premier League’s top half throughout the modern era — Champions League finalists in 2019, regular European qualifiers, and one of the wealthiest English clubs.

The collapse this season:

Manager changes disrupted continuity
Key player injuries affected the spine of the team
Loss of identity with multiple tactical reinventions across the season
A 15-game winless run earlier in 2026 that broke any momentum

The bounce-back form in May has been notable — a 1-0 win at Wolves and a 2-0 victory at Aston Villa to leapfrog West Ham. But it’s left Spurs in this final-day decider when the season has, in most other ways, been the most disappointing in their Premier League history.

If Spurs are relegated, this would be their first relegation from the top flight since 1977 — a 49-year absence from the second tier of English football. They would join only Sunderland (1996/97 — 40 points), Bolton (1997/98 — 40 points) and West Ham (2002/03 — 42 points) as Premier League teams to be relegated with 38+ points in the 20-team era.

How Did West Ham End Up Here?

West Ham’s season has been almost as disappointing as Spurs’, though without the same outside expectations.

Key context:

Limited transfer success in summer 2025
Defensive collapse — that -22 goal difference reflects how often West Ham have been thrashed
Inconsistency at home and away

For West Ham fans, relegation would be a particularly bitter end given the recent Europa League success in 2023 and the strong squad investment under previous regimes. Two seasons removed from the top flight would be a significant club setback.

Premier League Final Day Betting

Both relegation-relevant fixtures plus 8 other Premier League matches all kick off simultaneously at 4pm BST on Sunday 24 May. This is one of the betting industry’s biggest non-tournament days of the year.

Final day Premier League fixtures (all 4pm BST):

Tottenham vs Everton
West Ham vs Leeds
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Liverpool vs Brentford
Chelsea vs Brighton
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Newcastle vs Sunderland
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
Wolves vs Burnley

For complete final day betting analysis, bet builder construction across multiple fixtures, and welcome offers, see our bet builder tips hub and football accumulator tips.

Free Bets for Premier League Final Day — Welcome Offers Up to £50 →

Relegation Battle FAQs

Who is in the Premier League relegation battle 2025-26?

The 2025-26 Premier League relegation battle on the final day is between Tottenham (17th, 38 points) and West Ham (18th, 36 points). Wolves and Burnley have already been relegated mathematically.

What do Spurs need to do to stay up?

Spurs need just one point from their final match vs Everton to guarantee Premier League survival. A draw or win in any scoreline keeps them up. Even a defeat keeps them up if West Ham fail to win their match.

What do West Ham need to do to stay up?

West Ham need to beat Leeds at home AND for Spurs to lose at home to Everton. Both must happen. If West Ham win and Spurs lose, West Ham overtake Tottenham on points (39 vs 38) and Spurs are relegated. Any other combination keeps West Ham in the bottom three.

What time do the final-day relegation matches kick off?

Both Tottenham vs Everton and West Ham vs Leeds kick off at 4pm BST on Sunday 24 May 2026. All ten Premier League final-day fixtures start simultaneously.

Have Spurs been relegated before?

Yes, but not since 1977. Tottenham were last relegated from the top flight at the end of the 1976-77 season, finishing 22nd in the old First Division. They’ve been a continuous Premier League presence since the league’s formation in 1992.

What’s Spurs’ goal difference compared to West Ham?

Spurs are 12 goals better off on goal difference. Spurs sit on -10; West Ham sit on -22. This cushion is only relevant if the two teams finish level on points — most likely scenario being Spurs draw + West Ham win, where both end on 39 points and Spurs survive on GD. If West Ham overtake Spurs on points (Spurs lose + West Ham win), goal difference doesn’t come into the equation at all.

Can West Ham overturn the goal difference?

Goal difference only matters if the teams finish level on points. That happens in one scenario — Spurs draw + West Ham win, both ending on 39 points. In that case Spurs’ 12-goal goal difference advantage protects them. If West Ham finish AHEAD of Spurs on points (Spurs lose + West Ham win), goal difference doesn’t enter the equation — points alone decide it, and Spurs are relegated.

What teams are already relegated?

Wolves and Burnley have both been mathematically relegated from the Premier League before the final day of the 2025-26 season. Wolves were confirmed first, with Burnley’s relegation confirmed soon after.

Has a Premier League team ever been relegated with 38+ points?

Only three times in the 20-team Premier League era. Sunderland (1996-97, 40 points), Bolton (1997-98, 40 points), and West Ham (2002-03, 42 points — still the record for highest points total of a Premier League relegated team) have all gone down with 40+ points. If Spurs are relegated on 38 points, it would be a top-five highest-points-total relegation in Premier League history.

What channel is the Spurs vs Everton match on?

The Premier League final day is broadcast across Sky Sports in the UK. The relegation-relevant fixtures will be covered live with split-screen and multi-match formats. BBC Match of the Day will provide highlights of all final-day matches.

What happens if Spurs are relegated?

If Tottenham are relegated, they would play in the EFL Championship in the 2026-27 season for the first time since 1977-78. The financial impact would be significant — estimated £100m+ in lost Premier League revenue, broadcast money, and prize fund. Squad changes, manager review, and major club restructuring would be expected.

Can Everton beat Spurs at Tottenham?

Possible but unlikely. Everton sit safely in mid-table with little to play for. Their away form throughout 2026 has been inconsistent. Spurs are home, motivated, and well-priced as favourites. An Everton win is around 6/1 — meaningful but not the expected outcome.

Will Spurs survive?

Almost certainly yes. Eight of nine possible final-day outcomes produce Spurs survival. Only one — Spurs lose AND West Ham win — relegates Tottenham, and that requires both an underdog Everton win AT Spurs AND a West Ham home win on the same afternoon. Spurs are heavy favourites in their match; the maths is overwhelmingly in their favour.