Will England, France, Brazil & Argentina Win WC Groups?

EasyBet Predictions has opened a four-way correlated market asking the question every World Cup neutral wants answered: will all four of the seeded top teams — England, France, Brazil and Argentina — win their respective groups? The market currently prices YES at 43% and NO at 59%. A £20 stake at YES returns £46.51 (£26.51 profit).

For new EasyBet customers, the £20 stake on this market is exactly the qualifying bet required to unlock the £30 in Free Bets welcome offer with code YES30 — meaning you can deploy this bet as your qualifying wager and pick up four £5 prediction market free bets plus a £10 Exchange Multiple free bet on top of any potential return.

Claim EasyBet £30 Free Bets — Code YES30 →

How to Place This Bet With the EasyBet Welcome Offer

If you’re a new EasyBet customer, this market doubles up as the perfect qualifying bet to unlock the YES30 welcome offer — Bet £20 Get £30 in Free Bets.

The match here:

Welcome offer qualifying bet: £20 settled bet on any Predictions market at max odds 80%
This market: £20 stake on a market priced at 43% YES (well within the 80% maximum)

By placing this exact bet, you simultaneously:

Take a position on the four-team correlated outright at 43% YES → potential £46.51 return
Unlock the £30 welcome offer → 4 × £5 Predictions free bets + 1 × £10 Exchange Multiple free bet

Practical worth: even if your qualifying bet loses (the most likely outcome given the 59% NO probability), you still receive £30 in free bets to deploy elsewhere. That’s a 1.5:1 return on the £20 stake regardless of the market outcome.

Claim EasyBet £30 Free Bets — Code YES30 →

The Market at a Glance

Detail	Specification
Market	Will England, France, Brazil & Argentina All Win Their FIFA World Cup Groups?
YES price	43%
NO price	59%
£20 YES stake returns	£46.51
£20 NO stake returns	£33.90
Available on	EasyBet Predictions (exclusive — not available on traditional UK sportsbooks)
Settles	After all four groups complete Matchday 3 (Wed 24 — Sat 27 June 2026)
Maximum qualifying odds for YES30	80% (this market well within range)

Place this market at EasyBet — Code YES30 →

Current Standings: Where Each of the Four Groups Stand

The market resolves based on the final group standings after all Matchday 3 fixtures are complete. Here’s the picture as of Saturday 20 June 2026.

Group L — England Currently Top

After Matchday 1, England sit top of Group L on three points following their 4-2 win over Croatia at AT&T Stadium on Wednesday 17 June. Ghana also have three points after their 1-0 win over Panama, but England lead on goal difference (+2 vs Ghana +1).

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	England	1	1	0	+2	3
2	Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3
3	Panama	1	0	1	-1	0
4	Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0

England’s remaining fixtures: Ghana (Tuesday 23 June, 9pm UK at Gillette Stadium), Panama (Saturday 27 June, 10pm UK at MetLife Stadium). England look strong favourites to win the group given Tuchel’s side opened in such commanding fashion. Ghana is the only realistic threat, and the head-to-head against Ghana on Matchday 2 will likely settle the group.

Group I — France Joint Top with Norway

France beat Senegal 3-1 in their opener with Kylian Mbappe scoring twice. Norway also won their opener 4-1 against Iraq with Erling Haaland on the scoresheet, meaning France and Norway are level on points but Norway lead the group on goal difference (+3 vs France +2).

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	1	1	0	+3	3
2	France	1	1	0	+2	3
3	Senegal	1	0	1	-2	0
4	Iraq	1	0	1	-3	0

France’s remaining fixtures: Iraq (Monday 22 June, 5pm ET at Lincoln Financial Field), Norway (Friday 26 June, 3pm ET at Gillette Stadium). The Norway match on Matchday 3 is shaping up as the genuine group decider. Haaland in this form against France is a real test — the most volatile leg of this four-way market.

Group C — Brazil Joint Top with Morocco on Goal Difference

Brazil’s group has progressed further than the others — both Matchday 2 fixtures are complete. After drawing 1-1 with Morocco on Matchday 1, Brazil bounced back with a 3-0 demolition of Haiti at Lincoln Financial Field on Friday 19 June (Saturday morning UK). Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 in the other Matchday 2 fixture, leaving Brazil and Morocco level on four points each with Brazil ahead on goal difference (+3 vs +1).

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Scotland	2	1	0	1	0	3
4	Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Brazil’s remaining fixture: Scotland (Wednesday 24 June, 6pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami). Morocco plays Haiti on the same day. Brazil have a clear path to topping the group — beat Scotland and they’re through as group winners regardless of the Morocco-Haiti result. A draw or defeat against Scotland opens the door for Morocco to overtake them.

Group J — Argentina Top After Messi’s Historic Hat-Trick

Argentina’s defending-champion campaign began with a 3-0 victory over Algeria on Tuesday 16 June at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Lionel Messi scored his first ever World Cup hat-trick on his 200th international cap, equalling Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record at 16 tournament goals. Austria also won their opener (3-1 against Jordan), meaning Argentina lead Group J on goal difference.

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	1	1	0	+3	3
2	Austria	1	1	0	+2	3
3	Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0
4	Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0

Argentina’s remaining fixtures: Austria (Monday 22 June, 1pm ET at AT&T Stadium), Jordan (Saturday 27 June, 10pm ET). The Austria match on Matchday 2 is the group’s pivotal fixture — and the match where Messi will have the chance to surpass Klose’s all-time scoring record outright.

How Likely Is the YES Outcome?

The market prices YES at 43% — meaning EasyBet’s market makers (and the punters trading the market) collectively believe there’s a 43% chance all four of England, France, Brazil and Argentina win their groups.

Treating each group independently and assigning rough probabilities to each side topping their group:

Team	Estimated probability of winning group
England	70-75%
France	55-60% (Norway threat real)
Brazil	60-65% (Morocco joint top)
Argentina	70-75%

Naive joint probability multiplying through: roughly 18-22%.

That’s significantly below the 43% market price. Either the market is overpricing YES (NO is value at 59%) or there are correlation factors the naive multiplication misses — for example, if the tournament has gone “as seeded” through the openers, it may be more likely to continue that way through Matchday 2 and 3 than independent probabilities suggest.

Editorial view: the 59% NO price looks the value play if you’re treating the legs as independent. The single most likely point of failure is France — Norway has scored seven goals across their qualifying group plus opener, Haaland is in career form, and the Matchday 3 France-Norway match could be a coin flip. Brazil’s joint-top status with Morocco also makes them more vulnerable than the casual punter expects.

That said, the YES bet at 43% does have one structural appeal: the market resolves binary. Either all four win their groups (£46.51 return on £20) or you lose. If you believe the four seeded heavyweights will all assert themselves through Matchdays 2 and 3, the £26.51 profit on a £20 stake is a clean correlated upside.

Why This Market Only Exists on EasyBet Predictions

This kind of four-way correlated outright market doesn’t exist on traditional UK sportsbooks. Most bookmakers offer individual group winner markets (England to win Group L, France to win Group I, etc.) but they don’t combine these into a single four-leg correlated bet.

EasyBet’s Predictions product is designed for these kinds of compound questions — single binary YES/NO markets that ask broader tournament-level questions rather than match-by-match outcomes. Other examples on the platform include “Will the World Cup final feature two CONMEBOL teams?”, “Will Kane be Top Goalscorer?”, and longer-tail outright outcomes.

The percentage-based pricing model means the market price reflects collective punter sentiment in real-time. As Matchday 2 results land (Monday-Tuesday next week), the price will move significantly based on whether the four favourites assert themselves or stumble.

For UK sports punters more familiar with fractional odds, the conversions are:

Predictions Price	Fractional	Decimal
43% YES	4/3	2.33
59% NO	4/7	1.69

The £20 → £46.51 return matches the 43% YES decimal of 2.33 (after EasyBet’s market spread).

What Could Go Wrong: The Four Failure Points

For YES to fail, only ONE of the four teams needs to slip up. Here’s where each is most vulnerable:

England (Group L) — most likely to win. Tuchel’s side has clear quality across the squad and a winnable Matchday 2 against Ghana plus a Matchday 3 against Panama. The biggest risk is a slip against Ghana on Tuesday 23 June, which would create a goal-difference race with Ghana into Matchday 3. Even then England would likely have superior squad depth to assert themselves against Panama.

France (Group I) — most volatile leg. The Norway threat is real. Norway have scored more goals than France through Matchday 1, and Haaland is in career-best form. The Matchday 3 France vs Norway match on Friday 26 June will likely settle the group. A goalless draw could leave Norway as group winners on goal difference. This is the leg most likely to break the YES bet.

Brazil (Group C) — joint top with Morocco. Brazil currently lead on goal difference (+3 vs +1) but Morocco have already taken a point off them in the opener. Brazil’s Matchday 3 against Scotland is the decider — beat Scotland and they’re through as winners. Anything less and Morocco could overtake them if they beat Haiti by a bigger margin. The Brazil-Scotland clash on Wednesday 24 June at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami is the second most volatile leg of this market.

Argentina (Group J) — Austria is the key test. The Matchday 2 fixture against Austria on Monday 22 June at AT&T Stadium will be the group’s pivotal match. Austria beat Jordan 3-1 in their opener and have quality across the squad. Argentina won their opener 3-0 but Austria are no pushovers — Argentina dropping points here would open the group up. Most likely outcome: Argentina win, but it’s not the certainty casual punters assume.

The most stable of the four is England. The most volatile is France. If you’re considering YES, you’re effectively betting on Haaland not torpedoing France in Matchday 3.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does this market settle?

The market settles after all four groups complete their Matchday 3 fixtures. The latest of the four group concludes is Saturday 27 June 2026 (England plays Panama, Argentina plays Jordan that day). Settlement should follow within 24 hours of the final relevant match.

Can I cash out before settlement?

EasyBet’s Predictions product does support cashing out on most markets. As Matchday 2 and Matchday 3 fixtures land, your YES position will become more valuable (or worthless) and you can lock in profit or limit losses by cashing out. The cash-out value will scale with the live market percentage.

What happens if a team gets disqualified or withdraws?

EasyBet’s standard Predictions terms apply. Generally, if a team is disqualified or withdraws before Matchday 3 completes, the market would settle based on the official FIFA group winner determination.

Is this market available without the YES30 welcome offer?

Yes. Existing EasyBet customers can trade this market freely at the live 43% YES price. The YES30 welcome offer specifically rewards new customers with £30 in free bets when they place their first qualifying £20 settled bet. Existing customers don’t need to trigger any specific offer to access the market.

What’s the maximum stake?

EasyBet’s maximum stake on Predictions markets varies by market and current liquidity. For high-interest markets like this one with substantial open interest, max stakes are typically in the £500-2,000 range. Check the betslip for the current maximum before placing larger stakes.

Why don’t bet365 or BoyleSports offer this?

Traditional UK sportsbooks structure their World Cup markets around individual group winner outrights, not compound four-team correlated bets. The Predictions product format (binary YES/NO with percentage pricing) is specific to EasyBet’s platform model.