Portugal vs Denmark Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Portugal v Denmark - Nations League predictions and stats
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Portugal vs Denmark

Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 · Nations League

PortugalWWWWLW
DenmarkWLWLDD

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Portugal 5 in the Nations League and 15 across three others, Denmark 9 in the Nations League and 11 across two others

Goals

2.25Scored per game2.05
0.90Conceded per game1.15
Home gamesAway games
2.42Scored2.11
0.92Conceded1.44
Correct Score 2-115/2

On the venue splits this projects Portugal 1.87 against Denmark 1.24, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.1%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Portugal, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.92xG for1.67
0.92xG against0.81
+0.33Goals vs xG+0.38
Portugal to Win1/2

Portugal come in on W W W W L W, and at home they have scored 2.42 a game and conceded 0.92 across 12 matches. They have won 13 of their last 20 overall, drawing 5.

Denmark average 2.05 scored and 1.15 conceded. The venue splits project 1.87 against 1.24, which puts Portugal at about 58% to win, against 23% for the draw.

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Under and Over

75%Over 1.5 goals75%
60%Over 2.5 goals65%
35%Over 3.5 goals50%
Over 2.5 Goals1/2

Portugal have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Denmark in 65%, with 75% and 75% going past 1.5.

Portugal average 2.25 scored and 0.90 conceded, Denmark 2.05 and 1.15. On the venue splits that projects 1.87 against 1.24, about 3.1 goals in the match and 61% for over 2.5.

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Both Teams to Score

55%Both teams scored50%
7 of 20Clean sheets10 of 20
4 of 20Failed to score3 of 20
Both Teams to Score8/13

Both teams have scored in 11 of Portugal’s last 20 matches and 10 of Denmark’s. Portugal concede 0.90 a game and Denmark 1.15.

On the venue splits the projection is 1.87 against 1.24, which puts both teams scoring at about 56%.

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Shots

17.25Shots per game17.10
5.80On target per game6.10
33.6%Accuracy35.7%

Corners

5.70Won per game6.85
2.80First half3.20
49.1%Share before the break46.7%
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Cards and Fouls

3.25Cards in the match3.55
1.65Own cards per game1.40
0.90Cards by half time1.10
8.10Fouls committed9.60

Shooting Detail

11.05Shots inside the box10.20
6.20Shots outside the box6.90
7.25Off target5.75
4.20Blocked5.25

Big Chances

3.25Big chances created2.60
2.00Big chances missed1.35
38%Taken48%
29.25Touches in the box35.15

Record

13-5-2Won, drawn, lost9-6-5
7 of 20Clean sheets10 of 20
4 of 20Failed to score3 of 20

Possession

60.75%Average share58.65%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Bruno FernandesPortugal · M15052.150.840.661.20.963
Ruben DiasPortugal · D14950.480.060.720.60.93
VitinhaPortugal · M14221.460.380.440.630.71
Renato VeigaPortugal · D13260.610.071.150.540.683
Pedro NetoPortugal · F11421.180.241.11.020.472
Cristiano RonaldoPortugal · F10815.332.080.420.580.250
Joao NevesPortugal · M9281.450.580.781.262.421
Ruben NevesPortugal · M8521.90.850.740.321.271
Joao FelixPortugal · F8233.831.310.982.411.642
Bernardo SilvaPortugal · M6750.80.271.330.671.64
Goncalo RamosPortugal · F6623.941.51.090.680.820
Nelson SemedoPortugal · D5430.990.170.661.491.331
Diogo DalotPortugal · D4511.20.21.00.41.40
Goncalo InacioPortugal · D4140.430.220.651.091.091
Morten HjulmandDenmark · M14531.180.121.181.731.730
Joachim AndersenDenmark · D13280.750.411.360.751.695
Pierre-Emile HojbjergDenmark · M13272.240.810.610.951.423
Rasmus HojlundDenmark · F12233.241.471.11.550.290
Rasmus KristensenDenmark · D12170.590.31.480.32.293
Gustav IsaksenDenmark · M11163.711.851.053.550.732
Joakim MaehleDenmark · D11080.970.320.320.652.63
Mikkel DamsgaardDenmark · M11061.710.810.491.061.950
Jannik VestergaardDenmark · D8910.710.00.810.31.521
Christian EriksenDenmark · M8723.721.240.310.521.031
Victor FroholdtDenmark · F7941.250.340.911.810.681
Patrick DorguDenmark · F7511.920.61.563.362.521
Christian NorgaardDenmark · M6990.520.261.290.392.192
Andreas ChristensenDenmark · D5970.90.30.30.751.960
Oliver ProvstgaardDenmark · D4440.610.00.00.21.220

Advised props

Cristiano Ronaldo 3+ Shots

Cristiano Ronaldo has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 5.33 per 90 across 1,081 minutes, and he averages 77 minutes a game when he plays.

Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.

Bruno Fernandes 2+ Shots

Bruno Fernandes has had 2 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 2.15 per 90 across 1,505 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.

Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 85% implied by 2/11.

2/11Add
Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shots on Target

Bruno Fernandes has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 0.84 per 90 across 1,505 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.

Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 73% implied by 4/11.

4/11Add
Rasmus Kristensen 2+ Fouls Committed

Rasmus Kristensen has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Denmark, at 1.48 per 90 across 1,217 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Portugal hold 60.75% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.

7/4Add
Joakim Maehle to be Carded

Joakim Maehle has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Denmark, at 0.24 per 90 across 1,108 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.

Denmark pick up 1.4 cards a game and there are 3.55 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 21% implied by 15/4.

15/4Add

Trends

Window shown per line
0/60%Portugal · Last six at homePortugal have seen five or more cards in the match in 0 of their last six at home.
18/2090%Portugal · Last 20Portugal are unbeaten in 18 of their last twenty.
1/617%Portugal · Last sixPortugal have gone past three and a half goals in one of their last six.
0/60%Denmark · Last sixDenmark have committed twelve or more fouls in 0 of their last six.
6/6100%Denmark · Last six awayDenmark have scored in every one of their last six on the road.
17/2085%Denmark · Last 20Denmark have scored in 17 of their last twenty.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Portugal

04 OctNorway (H)2-1W
01 OctDenmark (A)4-2W
27 SepNorway (A)2-1W
24 SepWales (H)1-0W
06 JulSpain (H)0-1L
02 JulCroatia (H)2-1W

Denmark

04 OctWales (A)1-0W
01 OctPortugal (H)2-4L
27 SepWales (H)2-0W
24 SepNorway (A)2-3L
03 JunDR Congo (H)0-0D
31 MarCzechia (A)1-1D
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Build Your Own Portugal vs Denmark Bet

Cristiano Ronaldo 3+ Shots
Why this betCristiano Ronaldo has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 5.33 per 90 across 1,081 minutes, and he averages 77 minutes a game when he plays.Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against – worth a look when the market opens.
Bruno Fernandes 2+ Shots2/111.18
Why this betBruno Fernandes has had 2 or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 2.15 per 90 across 1,505 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 85% implied by 2/11.
Bruno Fernandes 1+ Shots on Target4/111.36
Why this betBruno Fernandes has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Portugal, at 0.84 per 90 across 1,505 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.Portugal take 17.25 shots a game and hit 5.8 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 73% implied by 4/11.
Rasmus Kristensen 2+ Fouls Committed7/42.75
Why this betRasmus Kristensen has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Denmark, at 1.48 per 90 across 1,217 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Portugal hold 60.75% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.
Joakim Maehle to be Carded15/44.75
Why this betJoakim Maehle has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Denmark, at 0.24 per 90 across 1,108 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Denmark pick up 1.4 cards a game and there are 3.55 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 21% implied by 15/4.
Portugal to Win1/21.50
Why this betPortugal come in on W W W W L W, and at home they have scored 2.42 a game and conceded 0.92 across 12 matches. They have won 13 of their last 20 overall, drawing 5.Denmark average 2.05 scored and 1.15 conceded. The venue splits project 1.87 against 1.24, which puts Portugal at about 58% to win, against 23% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score8/131.62
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 11 of Portugal’s last 20 matches and 10 of Denmark’s. Portugal concede 0.90 a game and Denmark 1.15.On the venue splits the projection is 1.87 against 1.24, which puts both teams scoring at about 56%.
Over 2.5 Goals1/21.50
Why this betPortugal have gone past 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 20 matches and Denmark in 65%, with 75% and 75% going past 1.5.Portugal average 2.25 scored and 0.90 conceded, Denmark 2.05 and 1.15. On the venue splits that projects 1.87 against 1.24, about 3.1 goals in the match and 61% for over 2.5.
Correct Score 2-115/28.50
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Portugal 1.87 against Denmark 1.24, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.1%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Portugal, which is where the board has the match too.
Portugal to Win and Both Teams to Score7/42.75
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: Portugal to win is about 58% and both teams scoring about 56%. Portugal score 2.25 a game and concede 0.90, and Denmark have scored in 10 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 7/4.
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