Norway vs Wales Predictions, Stats and Betting Tips

Andy Clark
Norway v Wales - Nations League predictions and stats
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Norway vs Wales

Sat 14 Nov, 17:00 · Nations League

NorwayLLLWDW
WalesLWLLLD

Stats cover Last 20 matches, not all in one competition – Norway 4 in the Nations League and 16 across three others, Wales 6 in the Nations League and 14 across two others

Goals

2.50Scored per game1.55
1.30Conceded per game1.30
Home gamesAway games
2.83Scored0.78
1.25Conceded1.44
Correct Score 2-117/2

On the venue splits this projects Norway 2.13 against Wales 1.14, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.7%.

Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Norway, which is where the board has the match too.

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Expected Goals

1.90xG for1.42
1.03xG against1.26
+0.60Goals vs xG+0.13
Norway to Win2/9

Norway have won 11 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 2.83 a game and conceded 1.25 across 12 matches.

Wales average 1.55 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 2.13 against 1.14, which puts Norway at about 69% to win, against 20% for the draw.

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Under and Over

90%Over 1.5 goals70%
75%Over 2.5 goals45%
45%Over 3.5 goals25%
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Both Teams to Score

85%Both teams scored55%
3 of 20Clean sheets4 of 20
1 of 20Failed to score6 of 20
Both Teams to Score5/6

Both teams have scored in 17 of Norway’s last 20 matches and 11 of Wales’. Norway concede 1.30 a game and Wales 1.30.

On the venue splits the projection is 2.13 against 1.14, which puts both teams scoring at about 65%.

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Shots

14.05Shots per game13.00
5.20On target per game5.10
37.0%Accuracy39.2%

Corners

5.20Won per game5.55
2.45First half3.05
47.1%Share before the break55.0%
Over 8.5 Corners4/5

Norway win 5.2 corners a game and Wales 5.55, with 2.45 and 3.05 of those in the first half.

That leaves about 10 in the match, a 66% chance of 9 or more against the 56% implied by 4/5.

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Cards and Fouls

2.15Cards in the match3.60
0.75Own cards per game1.70
0.40Cards by half time1.30
8.15Fouls committed10.35

Shooting Detail

10.85Shots inside the box9.15
3.20Shots outside the box3.85
4.60Off target4.40
4.25Blocked3.60

Big Chances

3.90Big chances created2.55
2.20Big chances missed1.35
44%Taken47%
32.45Touches in the box23.05

Record

11-4-5Won, drawn, lost7-5-8
3 of 20Clean sheets4 of 20
1 of 20Failed to score6 of 20

Possession

53.90%Average share59.00%

Player Props

Per 90
PlayerMinsShotsOn targetFoulsFouledTacklesCards
Sander BergeNorway · M16050.390.00.950.561.290
Kristoffer AjerNorway · D15730.510.110.860.231.033
David Moller WolfeNorway · D13430.40.071.470.741.141
Erling HaalandNorway · F13404.12.690.60.540.271
Torbjorn HeggemNorway · D12760.560.140.560.281.130
Antonio NusaNorway · F11592.870.780.542.251.321
Julian RyersonNorway · D11360.40.081.821.662.542
Patrick BergNorway · M10980.740.160.820.412.381
Martin OdegaardNorway · M10462.150.690.691.461.031
Alexander SorlothNorway · F9442.570.761.431.050.861
Oscar BobbNorway · M9381.060.480.192.011.340
Andreas SchjelderupNorway · F8812.350.610.610.922.550
Fredrik AursnesNorway · D7360.240.00.860.492.811
Leo OstigardNorway · D5640.640.160.960.641.440
Marcus PedersenNorway · D4460.610.41.010.811.210
Jorgen Strand LarsenNorway · F4333.121.250.421.250.421
Neco WilliamsWales · D16081.010.341.061.182.632
Joe RodonWales · D12750.780.210.640.421.062
Brennan JohnsonWales · F12261.320.510.661.251.033
Ben DaviesWales · D12080.890.221.190.751.271
Ethan AmpaduWales · M10771.00.081.750.582.423
Josh SheehanWales · M10240.530.180.792.020.71
Harry WilsonWales · M9782.581.11.22.390.833
Daniel JamesWales · F9432.20.950.761.430.951
Jay DaSilvaWales · D9100.10.00.20.31.090
David BrooksWales · M8102.441.00.891.890.563
Liam CullenWales · M7961.360.791.240.791.022
Mark HarrisWales · F5351.850.50.840.670.50
Kieffer MooreWales · F4832.980.930.931.490.370
Dylan LawlorWales · D4830.00.00.370.190.370
Connor RobertsWales · D4800.940.381.122.252.060
Chris MephamWales · D4600.780.780.980.392.352
Lewis KoumasWales · F4572.561.382.360.790.981

Advised props

David Moller Wolfe 2+ Fouls Committed

David Moller Wolfe has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Norway, at 1.47 per 90 across 1,343 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.

Wales hold 59.0% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 38% implied by 13/8.

13/8Add
Julian Ryerson 2+ Fouls Committed

Julian Ryerson has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Norway, at 1.82 per 90 across 1,136 minutes, and he averages 71 minutes a game when he plays.

Wales hold 59.0% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.

5/4Add
Ben Davies 2+ Fouls Committed

Ben Davies has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Wales, at 1.19 per 90 across 1,208 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.

Norway hold 53.9% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.

2/1Add

Trends

Window shown per line
6/6100%Norway · Last sixNorway have gone past one and a half goals in every one of their last six.
0/60%Norway · Last six at homeNorway have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six at home.
0/60%Wales · Last sixWales have gone past three and a half goals in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Wales · Last sixWales have kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last six.
0/60%Wales · Last sixWales have seen five or more cards in the match in 0 of their last six.

Last Six Matches

Most recent first

Norway

04 OctPortugal (A)1-2L
01 OctWales (A)1-2L
27 SepPortugal (H)1-2L
24 SepDenmark (H)3-2W
11 JulEngland (H)1-1D
05 JulBrazil (A)2-1W

Wales

04 OctDenmark (H)0-1L
01 OctNorway (H)2-1W
27 SepDenmark (A)0-2L
24 SepPortugal (A)0-1L
06 JunRomania (A)1-2L
02 JunGhana (H)1-1D
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Build Your Own Norway vs Wales Bet

David Moller Wolfe 2+ Fouls Committed13/82.63
Why this betDavid Moller Wolfe has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Norway, at 1.47 per 90 across 1,343 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Wales hold 59.0% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 38% implied by 13/8.
Julian Ryerson 2+ Fouls Committed5/42.25
Why this betJulian Ryerson has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 10 for Norway, at 1.82 per 90 across 1,136 minutes, and he averages 71 minutes a game when he plays.Wales hold 59.0% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 44% implied by 5/4.
Ben Davies 2+ Fouls Committed2/13.00
Why this betBen Davies has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Wales, at 1.19 per 90 across 1,208 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.Norway hold 53.9% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.
Over 8.5 Corners4/51.80
Why this betNorway win 5.2 corners a game and Wales 5.55, with 2.45 and 3.05 of those in the first half.That leaves about 10 in the match, a 66% chance of 9 or more against the 56% implied by 4/5.
Norway to Win2/91.22
Why this betNorway have won 11 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 2.83 a game and conceded 1.25 across 12 matches.Wales average 1.55 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 2.13 against 1.14, which puts Norway at about 69% to win, against 20% for the draw.
Both Teams to Score5/61.83
Why this betBoth teams have scored in 17 of Norway’s last 20 matches and 11 of Wales’. Norway concede 1.30 a game and Wales 1.30.On the venue splits the projection is 2.13 against 1.14, which puts both teams scoring at about 65%.
Correct Score 2-117/29.50
Why this betOn the venue splits this projects Norway 2.13 against Wales 1.14, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.7%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call – it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Norway, which is where the board has the match too.
Norway to Win and Both Teams to Score13/82.63
Why this betTwo things have to land, and the numbers support both: Norway to win is about 69% and both teams scoring about 65%. Norway score 2.50 a game and concede 1.30, and Wales have scored in 11 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 13/8.
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